Handicapper Tips & Picks

#5 EUCLID AVENUE will get a lot of attention for the connections, the class drop and from a pace standpoint as they should hold an edge (Q1) with their early speed in this field. #1 STOLICH would present a better number if not for coming back off the place finish last out. Perhaps there will be some dismissal given the distance change, though that would be a mistake as added ground back to a route is a positive . Trip and pace is also key for #3 ARMAVIR one that has held his form at this N2 level and returns from a slight 42-day freshening. As a type that raced himself into shape both this year and last that should again allow him to compete though did have pace to chase and target in the recent minor finishes. 

This should be the spot for #1 SHACKLEFORD STRONG to get back on trip and some value to play returning from the 6^th place result last out. Going back to the 6/8 event, trip appeared less than ideal with the complexion of the field pair with the rail draw as well as timing. Those factors change here, even as the rail is present he finds a different dynamic to work a trip from the inside. Timing is a further positive given the 36-days to rest and visually should benefit from that timing to return to a peak effort. 

Starting with the experienced runners: #2 GOOD GOD was given an EX – EXCUSE in his debut (the first 2yo race of the meet) raced GREEN missing the break (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) and overall looked to be given the race as his more fancied stablemate Shezafunkydrummer scored by open lengths as the favorite going gate-to-wire. GOOD GOD off the excuse and the connections is preferred off the initial start though would have preferred a published work after the race to the other three runners returning from the 6/23 common race with their OptixNOTES shown in the FREE OptixEQ Plot for Hawthorne available daily.

In addition to GOOD GOD, and the door open to a first time starter, L. Rivelli will also debut #7 RAVIN’S RANSOM another IL-bred that had some shorter, consistent works before the 4f gate bullet on 7/5. #5 TAKEITAWAY also turned in a snappy half mile move from the gate on 7/7 without earning a bullet for the move though did drill a bullet half mile breeze back on 6/21 and M. Boyce could have this homebred race ready and in live hands with J. Felix aboard.

#1 STRANGER’S CHURCH comes into this race with plenty of works and was scheduled to debut in that 6/23 common race with the slight set back (vet) from that race and put in two published works since, the half mile from the gate on 6/28 and blowout last weekend (7/6) to get race ready here. 

#1 MIDTERM is overdue for some racing luck in terms of trip and field and finds that here. HE comes into this race with consistent form and less than ideal handling in the two recent starts. There has been intent for the turf from a solid turf trainer in P. Miller and MIDTERM appears versatile to handle the surface switch.

A belated return is in play for #2 LAST MINUTE and going back to the debut late last season (a common race with MIDTERM) LAST MINUTE did not appear to handle the KICKBACK in addition to taking contact from both sides at the start. Prior to the race last year he was entered a couple of times at PID (synth) and with the move to the turf today that dirt in the face KICKBACK should not be an excuse here. Like the debut, he was fancied and projects similar here with the connections in play and the recent works showing many “bullets” in the return series.

#4 HONORANDPRINCIPLE has been forced to practice patience waiting for the turf. They were entered to debut on the grass back in March at the FG scratched when the races came off and forced to scratch the following week unable to draw in off the AE. Since showing up on this circuit they have been entered twice both races coming off the grass and should get the belated start and surface here and looks live for the connections that have had the bulk of the success here on the grass.

In terms of #7 LA PERFECT BEE he was entered for the grass last weekend and a late scratch (along with #8 NAGY AND DA BEARS) as the big storm hit and forced the late races off the turf. With that said, this sprint distance could be a second choice and something to consider. Class is the knock for both #3 PONCHO ATTACK and #5 UNCLE CHUCKLE stepping up from prior races in MCL company. 

Looking at the Plot, #1 SALLY’S SURPRISE has enough early speed to keep pace with both #5 FAST N HAPPY and #6 DEVIL with the edge on finishing ability (Square) of that trio. In addition, SALLY’S SURPRISE lacks “Red” in the Past 3 Runlines a common theme with the other runners in this field, which includes #4 SECRET OPERATION and #7 SURPRISE ME AGAIN two that should be looking to come on late for the minors off the pace from Quad II/IV. 

#1 TRAIL RIDGE ROAD finds upside as she makes her second start back off the layoff. In terms of par, today’s event is lower and comparable to where she has been able to record a “B” effort in the past. She will also find a change in race dynamic while the “Snowflake” is in play the SpeedRate moves up to a higher 73 to assist the Quad IV Square late run.

In terms of the early speed, #2 MOON RAY is a flow upgrade from the two most recent starts and has been given a freshening along with the class relief on the circuit switch to suggest further intent by the connections. With that said, it will not be an uncontested lead with the M. Boyce runners as #4 CAT ATTACK will be on the attack and #3 JOURNEYIST (as well as #7 WANDA STRONG) also with natural, tactical speed (QI/III) to keep the early fractions (SpeedRate) honest.

#5 TIMELESS ROSE also fits today’s race shape looking at the Plot and a similar dynamic to the race conditions back on 3/17 when she picked up the TAM win. Some price compensation is required though could be there off the 4^th place run last out. TIMELESS ROSE finished in front of #6 AMAZON QUEEN in that 7/14 HS Indy common race though both earning a similar C+ OptixGRADE to suggest there is not much between them on the day and into this race.

#8 COTTON CANDY ANNIE earned a follow before the break going back to the 5/12 race projecting to IMPROVE. She has limited turf starts to hold against her too much, though without question moves up with this race moved to the main track without being an obvious MTO entrant. 

#1 KING ANTHONY stood out over the field making his return to the races clearing the MSW level last month. He required every bit of that class edge as mentally he lost his race before it began, WASTED a lot of energy out on the track and to the create of all involved was able to get the win. Off that effort and race under his belt (and better composure) he could take the step forward in this spot against winner, though must be monitored on the track.

In terms of the C. Block pair, #5 GOOD APPLE has been more progressive than #7 MOONLIGHT ROAD and the edge from the common race last month. GOOD APPLE returns with a rider change today and the move with intent looking to shake things up and look for a cleaner break, something that has eluded him with the TROUBLE_S in the two recent races and played a role in the outcome while still pairing B- OptixGRADES.

The class test comes back into play for #8 MY CRAZY NEIGHBOR though he is not out of it at this level, extended sprint distance and slightly softer race par than the event two weeks ago and in line with the 5/26 par, a winning race while in claiming company. He had a look on that day off his competitive N2 allowance races and finding just enough class relief to get the win.

#3 VALIANT WEST recorded a strong of B- OptixGRADES at this level earlier in the meet to get a share while a longer shot on the win end though based on Standard Plot, find a trip stalking off #4 STRANGE ARRANGE – one that will again be class tested and looking at the Past 3 Runlines his form is on a decline both on GRADES and Figures, to balance with the Plot position.

Keying off the races at this level, #2 FAMILY TRADITION must step up off the C+ races this season and show he can improve number wise as well. Going back to last season he starting to move forward on figures and still would require a boost from those top numbers last year, though those figures are not off the lower end of par and his class edge has the edge over STRANGE ARRANGE and #6 HOPPING JOHN runners that have recorded higher figures, though recorded those numbers in a lower par and class than today’s event. 

Keying off the Plot and race shape as the early “Sun” Contention is honest and paired with a higher 67 SpeedRate, something that is shown visually with more than half of the field positioned above the ParLine. That type of scenario should benefit the runners from off the pace, upgrading #1 KINGSBURY DREAM and #9 QUILTING PARTY as the two Q4 Squares.

Trip is noted for #4 GET N TIPSY one that was able to make a move from off the pace to get the win on 6/25 though part of that due to the early TROUBLE where she wanted to race closer to the pace and wheeling back for this start, does not find a class edge, if anything a slight rise and something to consider as she comes into this race off a new top (regression possible) on shorter rest and likely to be favored. 

The class edge shifts to #7 MY BROTHER MIKE one that takes the belated drop and key cutback in distance as the connections look for this belated maiden win. #6 LARRY’S LUNCHBOX recorded a B OptixGRADE at this level and par back on 5/25 and has a look here on that metric alone. #5 KEYSER recorded a B- in that common race and going back in his career has recorded some of the higher figures and the rider change to R. Blanche suggests intent here and must be kept in the mix on value.  

#3 THE RIDGE should receive a lot of attention in this field making just his second start at the lower MCL level and possessing early speed. With that said, he must still step up and perhaps run a “faster” race than he has in the past given the complexion of the field and unable to be “lone speed” in this event sandwiched between #2 LUCKY PAL and #4 SENDEMDOWNTHEROAD other front runners.

#1 SCHMOOZIN fits this condition perfectly and has been given a freshening for this spot and return to Hawthorne while also in for the tag. His form this season fits on par and has been racing at a higher par than many of the rivals he faces today have met this season to present a slight, subtle class edge.

#2 FLASHY RICHIE returns to a sprint for the first time this season and could be the right move with his current form and today’s race shape. Most of his limited sprint races were run elsewhere though he does hold two HAW sprints from back in early 2022, those races with a win and place finish.

#3 VIOLENT GIGI finds a slight rise in par today’ though coming into this race with solid form to compete. He recorded a BTL effort with TROUBLE back on 6/29 and a strong CLOSE three weeks ago, both races earning a B OptixGRADE – the edge over #4 MON AMI FUZZIE pairing B- OptixGRADES in those common races.

#6 BLAZEN ROAD is tougher to consider for the top spot though keying off the BTL effort back on 5/19 can be in the mix for a minor share.