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Sun July 14th, 2024 |
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Ron's Picks
Hawthorne Race 1
Post Time 2:10 PM CST
Hard to get past 5-EUCLID AVENUE. I’ve never been much
for big droppers but his drop makes sense. He was in too deep in the two races
since breaking his maiden despite his great effort in his first start against
winners. At this, the right level, he should be far more competitive. 6-CHARLIE’S
BEACH is another meeting his easiest field ever. He owns pretty good sprint speed
so it’s a bit strange that in all of his previous route races he hasn’t shown
any speed at all. Maybe that will change today. He hasn’t done it yet but keep
expecting 1-STOLICH to display better speed with the stretch out. Is coming off
a good second at this level while sprinting. If he does get sent, he could be
first or second all the way around.
Hawthorne Race 2
Post Time 2:38 PM CST
If 2-I’M WIDE AWAKE can emulate his effort in his last
race at Churchill, he shouldn’t get beat. Of course, this race is filled with
early speed so he might not be able to grab that clear lead he enjoyed in that
last race. Still, I’m not sure any of the others in here are capable of running
a :44 and change half. Guess we’ll see. 1-SHACKLEFORD STRONG might be able to
challenge for the lead but think his best chance will come if he can let some
of the others tackle top pick early while he patiently tracks the early pace. He’s
been facing possibly tougher rivals than these. Should be a strong finisher.
5-PHILIPSBURG was just claimed by a barn with a 31%-win average with their
first-time claims. He’s been the model of consistency with three wins, three
seconds and two thirds in his eight career races. He’s taking on better here
but he could be up to the challenge. 4-RED LABEL won starters in his last two
starts. His speed figures suggest that he could be slower than some in here but
he has to be considered after recent victories.
Hawthorne Race 3
Post Time 3:06 PM CST
Richard Ravin homebred 7-RAVIN’S RANSOM has popped some
amazing workouts, especially for a 2yo. He races for the top barn whose babies
and first times usually run well, at low odds, and he gets one of the top
riders in the irons. 5-TAKEITAWAY is another homebred, this one by S D Brille LP,
that has been training very well. Like top pick, he’s trained by a sharp barn
that often wins with their first timers and he’s another that gets one of the
top riders in his irons. 4-BOLD COMFORT finished 12 lengths back in his debut
but the highly touted winner of that race drew clear by 10 and this colt
finished third, less than two lengths back from second, while finishing well
clear of the rest of the field. Experience helps. Figures.
Hawthorne Race 4
Post Time 3:34 PM CST
2-LAST MINUTE went off as the heavy favorite in his lone
race last year but failed to make an impact. Guess he had some growing to do.
But this $475,000 purchase has been working bullets toward his first start of
2024. This time he’ll be racing on turf, the surface he was bred to love. Has a
great chance to make amends. 1-MIDTERM should finally get to run on the lawn.
He was entered for turf in his last two races but those races were both moved
to the main track. This speedy runner has been fading after showing good early
zip but that could change with the switch in surfaces. 3-PONCHO ATTACK will be
flying late. He’s had two turf sprints and ran well in both, including a
second, less than a length back, in last. Meets open company today but might
want to include him in the vertical gimmicks.
Hawthorne Race 5
Post Time 4:02 PM CST
7-SUPRISE ME AGAIN is the most lightly raced member of
this field. She showed nothing in her debut but Block-trained runners often
need a race or two and she came through with flying colors in last, breaking
her maiden going away. She’s meeting many that have been trying to get through
this condition for a while. Obviously gives up experience edge but might have
the most upside. 1-SALLY’S SURPRISE made a strong late bid in last, only to
come up less than a length short. It’s possible that if that race had been at
today’s distance, she would have passed them all. Maybe today. 6-DEVIL seems
like the only legitimate speed in the race. Could try to steal this on the lead.
Hawthorne Race 6
Post Time 4:30 PM CST
4-CAT ATTACK is far from the only speed in this race but
she could be the best. She had little chance in a dirt sprint in last but she’s
stretching to her best distance on her preferred surface. She wired the fields
the three times they stretched her out from sprints to routes. Might not look
back. 1-TRAIL RIDGE ROAD needed last. This multiple stakes-placed runner faced
an extremely tough stakes field in her 2024 debut. She’s going to be gunning
for top pick late. 2-MOON RAY is worth a look. She’s racing without blinkers for
the first time since arriving in the US. She’ll be making her first start for
this barn and they win almost 30% of the time when runners come to them from
other barns.
Hawthorne Race 7
Post Time 4:58 PM CST
1-KING ANTHONY lived up to heavy favoritism and broke his
maiden in his first start of the meet. He raced in contention early, moved on
the early speed late in the stretch, and finally drew away late. He’s meeting
more experienced rivals in this spot but like the way he has improved with
every subsequent sprint race. Can win right back. 4-STRANGE ARRANGE looks like
the best of the speed. He tired in last while facing many of these rivals but
his first two races for this barn were excellent. He has a better chance of
getting an unchallenged lead today. Might take it all the way. The tactical
speed of 5-GOOD APPLE should have him squarely in the hunt. He might not be
quite as quick as Strange Arrange but he’ll be raging right behind that runner.
He often finishes with good energy Would be no surprise.
Hawthorne Race 8
Post Time 5:26 PM CST
4-GET N TIPSY came from far back to win last in Indiana,
meeting rivals quite similar to this group. She also finished second the last
time she raced here last July. This race should feature an honest pace, something
required for her to unleash her best move. Can repeat. 1-KINGSBURY DREAM was
outgunned in her first start of the year but that race should have set her up
perfectly for this one. She’s dropping to fac her easiest field in a long time.
Although she won only one of her 20 turf races, she has often been competitive
despite meeting tougher rivals. Like top pick she’ll do her best running late.
They could be matching strides in the stretch. 5-APRIL’S GEM is generally
competitive. She has an affinity for races at this distance. Seven of her eight
victories have been scored at what is considered is considered a long sprint,
even though it is around two turns. Finished third in a similar contest at this
distance last time out but we know she’s capable of doing even better.
Hawthorne Race 9
Post Time 5:54 PM CST
7-MY BROTHER MIKE drops and turns back in distance. He has
probably been better in longer races so far in his career but he has never been
in this easy. Expecting him to race near the back of the pack early and try to
mount a challenge once they turn for home. 4-SENDMEDOWNTHEROAD could display
the most sustained speed. Others in here are quicker but they quickly run out
of gas. He’s still lightly raced compared to most of the rest. Might have some
upside. 5-KEYSER looks like the only one in here capable of making a late move
and the pace will certainly set up for a horse with that ability even though
the distance is short.
Hawthorne Race 10
Post Time 6:22 PM CST
8-LUCKY SHOT just finished second in a “key” race. He was
favored in that event but fought his rider for much of the race and expended
too much energy doing so. Both the winner and third-place finisher came back to
win their next starts. This one drops a notch. Can make amends. 1-SCHMOOZIN won
his first two starts of the meet, beating better both times, but got claimed from
his last local race and sent downstate, He didn’t do much good there but he’s
back here and dropping in class. We know he likes the track. Might wake up.5-BAREFOOTBOOTLEGGER
pulled things together in last and won at a nice price. He’s meeting a bit
tougher in this spot but should once again get a great pace to run against. Comes
flying late.