Handicapper Tips & Picks

#2 ARTHURIAN moves up with the move back to the turf and overall in this field with the ABOVE+ factors on Class, Speed and Plot. His figures stack up as some of the higher in the field overall and has the BTL place finish under similar condition making a MOVE through TRAFFIC with TROUBLE making a CLOSE in the place finish.

#5 WHATDOYOUTHINKMARK finds a reset for this race and overall changes in the second start back this season. Since the 5/18 return he was entered and scratched when in for the $25k tag and scratched when the races were moved to the main track on 6/29. As far as the TURF he should handle the surface change based on his physicality and the connections had considered running in the Tyro stakes (5f Turf) at MTH last season and before the stakes at PRM.

 Class wise #6 BALADINE takes the class rise to move to the turf a positive change in surface though a tougher spot to compete on the win end though kept in the mix especially as he should be dismissed off the recent running lines and finishing positions and preferred of the group stepping up from the claiming ranks. Value is the concern with #1 RIGHTEOUS FREEDOM as he returns to take on winners and a tougher spot than the field last month – factors that require price compensation.

Looking at the Plot, #2 ITWASTHISBIG appears as the controlling speed sitting in Quad I. Based on his races this season especially the 6/23 race (VF early/late) he should be in that forward role; however he was not always a front runner and in the complexion of this field (and rider change back to A. Centeno) they could rate just off the first flight to work the right trip in today’s group.

From the 6/30 common race #6 JET FLIGHT might bring the most upside as he did not get a chance to run his race that day (SLOG, TROUBLE_S, NO_PUSH) and drawing a line through that his races leading up to that event were on the improve and that pattern can carry today. The winner, #4 HANDSOFFTHEGOODS benefit from a PERFECT trip while recording a new top figure and #5 ROCKET HOTSHOT raced WIDE and will be class tested at this level once again, today’s par is higher than the event last out.

#1 MR. FROST wheels right back for this race and a better overall spot with the change in class. He was right up in the mix for the majority of the race though unable to keep pace with the eventual open length pacesetting winner, Mahoney Road. Number wise MR. FROST has improved with each start this year and could just land in the right time and place at a price today. 

The concern with #4 JOE THE TAILOR is the timing more than the ability especially in today’s race where he should hold a clear pace advantage with the strong Quad I position paired with the lower SpeedRate. If he does take a step up that really opens up the race to any other runner in this field and lacking value in that case with second choice on the ML #5 GOD GUNS N GUTS.

#3 ANDTHETHUNDERROLLS is an interesting player returning to Hawthorne. He will return to the one turn distance here with most of his prior local races contested around two-turns. His local one turn start this season (4/21) was compromised at the break (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) and the top two finishers ran 1-2 gate to wire finishing together and clear. Class wise he finds a lateral change from the recent FAN events and numbers that stack up with today’s par and in line with the recent figures posted from JOE THE TAILOR.

Trip will be crucial for ANDTHETHUNDERROLLS as it will be for #1 DASH TO THE CASH from the rail. With that said, he present overall upside in the second start off the layoff and coming back from a WIDE trip in a higher par event. Going back to last season he took some racing to find his top form and that belated maiden win though in the summer series once finding his form was recording numbers on par that fit with the other two. 

This might be one of the trickier handicapping puzzles on the card (if not the country) given the complexion and depth of this field. The analysis starts with #2 CATEGORY TEN one that is logical in that role as he has held form and win at this level/par twice already this season. He can be upgraded further with the less than ideal TACTIC- last out playing a role in the distant show finish behind the winner C F V Bullet, one that returned to win last week at FAN. With that said to the favor of CATEGORY TEN, he faces some new faces and horses making changes in this spot or with overall form on the improve that can see them competitive.

The change in class will be made for #1 ICE SHARD one that moves up with that change and should be dismissed in this field off the recent running lines and finishing position. He is upgraded in his second start of the form cycle and ABOVE on Class with the change here to run for the claiming tag with both of his May efforts stacking up with figures on today’s par.

D. Cohen picking up the mount on #5 MOHAAFETH looks like a live tell on this runner returning from the layoff in this spot. This one has some back class with the stakes and allowance experience as well as some of the higher figures, though a positive as he remains at the same claiming tag as the connections dropped down for to close out 2023.

Going back to the 6/30 common race features the returning place finisher #3 EXECUTIVE ACTION one that does not present value today as he was 29-1 last out and the place finish aided from the VS early/late race shape. That race shape played against the other A. Meraz runner #6 BOURBON LIFE impacting his outcome racing X_FLOW and keying off his 5/4 and specifically the B+ 6/4 effort he jumps right back into the mix here.

While #7 PATH TO SUCCESS would not be any surprise he has some up short at this level (B-/C+) with a “winning” effort. He did pick up the win under similar conditions back on 3/24 at the FG though found a lower race par than today’s event there and could get attention today off the recent place finish. #4 BAHAMIAN NATIVE also could find attention off the win last month though that was the time and place with the edge that day on pace and flattered with the Slow early and Very Slow late race shape to hold as the BOS to win.

Given the long 319-day layoff, would like to get more creative/value than #5 POLICY OPTION though keep coming back to this horse as he checks too many boxes that fit this race. He has the edge on class and overall consistent figures and for a barn that has been live all meet. His RunStyle comes from off the pace (another reason to want some value) though given the complexion of this field (Sun/30 SpeedRate) should have pace to target and work a trip for L. Colon.

The early pace should be honest with the two outside runners; #9 SAILING SOLO going out for live connections can take a step forward in his second start of the cycle though will be joined by #10 NOVGOROD THE GREAT one that has legit early speed though some stamina (SPRINTER?) question marks. Those two from the outside should be joined by #3 SOUL COAXING one that was upgraded with the positive front wrap removal, a positive prior change that resulted in a win and found that outcome last month.

#7 RED DANGER made his layoff return on 5/25 the closing part of the CD meet. He was back at the sprint distance that day, a sign of a prep given his career placement around two turns, the distance they are back at today. RED DANGER at times has shown some distance and class weakness, though the placement on this circuit and at the flat mile, should be the right move for this horse.

Trainer C. Winebaugh has the pair in this spot and while #1 CADET CORPS has recorded some of the higher figures there is not much between him and #6 MCMONEY on their best day and on current form to upgrade the longer of the two. 

#4 KHOZAN’S SUCCESS holds an advantage in this race on every angle to support as a legitimate favorite in this race. The connections return to Hawthorne and back under similar conditions to the 5/26 event where he recorded a strong B+ with the front end run and looking at the Plot could see a similar outcome.

While KHOZAN’S SUCCESS looks to have a pace advantage they still must deal with #5 FLYING SAMURAI and #7 BLURT at the first call and that pace scenario would benefit #2 FIRST MASAMUNE and #3 TWO COOKIE RULE. The odds and scenario can upgrade TWO COOKIE RULE one that has some upside (Green) factors in this race. His sprint effort last week was sneaky good CLOSE and GALLOP+ to set up for this race and return to the route distance. 

#4 BERNIN TUNE makes a belated return to the races and earned a follow from the local debut last year. He was GREEN all around and in the GATE showing run in spots with the show finish. The connections have been looking for the right spot to return in 2024 and patiently waiting for the grass scratching when the races were taken off the turf at HS earlier this month.

Current C. Block trainee, #9 LICENSE TO STEAL looks the part of a TURF horse and has been the intent for the grass in the first two starts. His first two races did not earn the strongest figures, though from an overall perspective, was competitive pairing B- OptixGRADES in both tries. The connections will also be represented by #12 I O FEDRO one that also has been looking for turf entered three times this season, though two of those times was entered for the $20k tag.

#11 CAT ON TIME can be upgraded naturally showing up on this circuit with today’s par lower than what he has experienced in the three CD races and consistent figures that  #1 RICKY’S BEST is also one to not ignore completely. He had some setbacks following the debut late in 2022 before returning from the 547-day layoff on 6/29 and made a positive PRERACE+ appearance and none of the horses had a chance behind the open length pacesetting winner, McQueen.

Those runners being lightly races provide alternatives to the established group of #5 WOLF HUNTER and #6 SPINNING HEART and even #2 PILKINGTON, one that does find a higher race par returning here from the two most recent starts and would have to show more to win. 

#3 IRISH SPARK presents an alternative to the expected heavy favorite in #2 PEGGY’S WAY. The change in class comes into play for both, though IRISH SPARK will make her debut in MCL company here. She is further upgraded from the races this season as well as the tougher Oaklawn debut especially the 6/1 local start given a massive X_BIAS upgrade making a WIDE MOVE after the SLOG/TROUBLE_S on a rainy day (WEATHER) day that was tough to make up ground and favored inside runners. The class drop PEGGY’S WAY finds here benefit #9 SWEET SMILA on 6/29 with the improved B- OptixGRADE effort that day and the edge over the others in this field from the $62.5k level. 

#11 ENZI holds the class edge in this field making the circuit switch and shift from allowance company. Those changes are not a concern, rather reasonable as she has not shown much improvement and her consistency/class fits right on par here.

#1 SHE’S INTHEARMYNOW and #5 DIAMONDS JOY also makes the change to run for a claiming tag though overall finds closer to a lateral move from their races to date and must step up for the top spot and both making the distance change with DIAMONDS JOY one that does have some route experience. Her C. Block stablemate #2 ROAR OF SILENCE caught the right group and overcame the early TROUBLE to pick up the maiden win on 6/30 and takes the rise against winners here.

#9 LEIPZIG just might be the type that struggles to pair up top efforts and that being the part of the excuse for the poor (C) effort in the most recent start. She could also be given an upgrade chasing NO_COVER up close to a Very Fast early pace and going back to the 6/8 start earned a B OptixGRADE that should translate here. The dynamic of this field should also allow for her to sit back and make a run with many stretching out in distance and sharing an E/EP RunStyle. That scenario with the Sun/46 SpeedRate should assist a C/Closer like #4 MS KS DYNASTY one that does not hold an edge in this group even with that RunStyle as a QII/IV Circle. 

A lot of rain (3+ inches) since Sunday in the Chicagoland area as I fully expect everything to be run on the main track Thursday. With that in mind, 6-BALADINE moves up on dirt as he posted and improved effort in his last and keeps Slevinsky in the saddle. I expect him to stalk the pace and move forwardly in the lane. 2-ARTHURIAN stayed in when races came off the grass last out and just kind of ran evenly. His figure from that race still puts him in the mix here as he has shown past ability to show some early speed. 7-SECESSION has tactical speed and looks to be a factor on turf or dirt. He posted and improved effort in his last and can't be dismissed in here.

A pretty evenly matched bunch here in a spot where pace makes the race. Slava Ukraini is going to head to the top but could have company. If that's the case, 5-ROCKET HOTSHOT could be the one to get the trip. He has been very good in his last four starts and has won every other during that period. The pace setup should benefit his chances as he looks to rally late. 4-HANDSOFFTHEGOODS was a good winner at this level in his last and should also benefit if the pace is contested upfront. The stretch back in distance looks to benefit him as Reyes returns in the saddle. 2-ITWASTHISBIG is one that could push things along early one as he gets back to the Hawthorne dirt. He was competitive while facing tougher early in the meet as you can toss out his last on the grass.

Was looking to see if you could beat the favorite but I just don't see it happening with 4-JOE THE TAILOR today. The pace complexion of this race is much different from his last where he was pushed the entire way. He should be able to coast along early in this spot and have more than enough left in the lane. 2-VERRAZANOINTHESKY ran a nice race two back and held his own at this level in his last. He could look to rate a bit closer early in here as he's worth a look while at a price. 1-DASH TO THE CASH should welcome the added 16th as he looks to pick up the pieces late. He likely needed his last off the layoff as he should close quickly while at a price.

With the race coming off the turf, it may have been a good thing for 3-EXECUTIVE ACTION last out as he ran a big race behind a good winner. He should be able to rate close early in a race that doesn't have a ton of pace as Mojica takes the return ride. 7-PATH TO SUCCESS will need some pace to chase as he also comes off a good effort in a race taken off the grass. This is his second start for the new connections as he should be running on late. 2-CATEGORY TEN has been solid all season but seemed to battle his rider a bit last out in a race that had no pace. If allowed to run early in here, he could potentially get a perfect trip and run on late.

A really solid field on turf or dirt as all three selections should be worth a look on both. 10-NOVGOROD THE GREAT ran a big race on the main track in his last as he showed good early speed and ran on late. He will need to avoid hooking up with Sailing Solo but benefits from the class relief and can't be overlooked. 2-BANDIT SWANSON is another that looks to be solid on any surface. The big question for him is the layoff but his worktab is excellent and he appears ready off the bench. 3-SOUL COAXING was a game winner on the grass in his last and was a game second in the mud two back. Turf or dirt he figures to contend as he looks to find a good stalking position.

There's a good amount of pace in this race which should set things up nicely for the closers. Going to give the nod to 8-IZEONDEC as he comes in off a pair of victories and a short layoff. Cohen has been an excellent fit in the saddle for him as the setup ahead of him should be perfect. 1-NOT VERY GENTLE is another that is likely to run on late. His form last year was very sharp and his recent race progression shows he could be ready to step up. 4-KHOZAN'S SUCCESS returns from an effort at Churchill in his last as he also comes back off the rest. He is one of those with speed though but ran a huge race when at this level two back.

Another race where the top three can be major contenders on turf or dirt. One that has been trying to get on the grass but hasn't yet is 9-LICENSE TO STEAL. He held his own on the dirt in both starts as has some tactical speed. With his second start around two turns I expect to see some improvement while at a price. 2-PILKINGTON ran a solid second in a race taken off the turf in his last as he chased and ran on late. He was also good on the turf two back. He draws favorably and should be in a perfect stalking spot. 5-WOLF HUNTER was a good second on grass two back while rallying late. He stayed in on the main track last out and ran on behind another Perez runner. He may be a price play in here.

This has to be the spot for 2-PEGGY'S WAY as she drops down to a winning level and looks to be the controlling pace. She ran well in all three starts this meet and comes in off a solid work. 3-IRISH SPARK also drops in class, with a bigger drop into here. She ran a good race two back over a fast track and will get a fast strip once again.  Expect her to take her fair share of action. 5-ARRINGTON will be hoping for some pace to chase as she turns back to the sprint. I do expect she gets that pace upfront but oftentimes she comes running too late.

A good winner in her last, 2-ROAR OF SILENCE looks to be sitting in a good spot once again. She gets some pace to chase in here and figures to close quickly. Let's see if she can win right back. 10-HIGHWOOD stretches out for the first time as she is one that has some speed. From the outside draw she should be able to see what the speed to her inside chooses to do as that could dictate her trip. 1-SHE'S INTHEARMYNOW is another that stretches out as she should be good on turf or dirt. She also has that early speed to contend as she should get sent away from the rail.

2-ARTHURIAN often goes for the lead but two races back he came from off the pace in his turf debut and narrowly missed. Raced in fifth throughout in his next start that was scheduled for turf but moved to dirt. Have to like his chances if this race does stay on turf but not too sure how he’ll run if this race does get moved to dirt. 5-Have to give 5-WHATDOYOUTHINKMARK one more chance at this level. He was a monster winner in his career debut but has been trounced in his two races since. However, he was gelded following his last race and he’s been training well since. 8-A P BLAZING GREEN just graduated. However, he ran well in his last three turf races. His speed figures are competitive. Wouldn’t overlook.

2-ITWASTHISBIG drops in class after a terrible effort in his turf debut. He was in relatively good form prior to that race while meeting better rivals. Guessing he’ll wake up big time with the return to dirt. 4-HANDSOFFTHEGOODS just scored in a race containing many of these rivals. The pace could set up in the same way. Could easily repeat. 3-SLAVA UKRAINI will go right for the lead and take it as far as he can.

4-JOE THE TAILOR gets a small nod. He couldn’t keep up with the talented Tahoe Run in last and ran out of gas trying. He will be meeting some others with speed today but none are likely to tax him early. Can wire the field. 1-DASH TO THE CASH needed last. He raced evenly early but ran out of gas late. However, that last race might have been the tightener he needed. He needs to sit back early and unleash his closing move in midstretch. 5-GOD GUNS AND GUTS just finished second at almost 60-1. He edged out Joe the Tailor for that place finish. If that rival faces unexpected pressure again, this one just might be able to get by him again.

2-CATEGORY TEN should be the one to beat. He won twice at this level early in the meet and finished in the money in last two versus similar. However, his speed figure dropped off significantly in his most recent start and he didn’t finish with his usual authority. Might be vulnerable. 3-EXECUTIVE ACTION outran his odds to finish second in his last start. He finished ahead of top choice while doing it. He has six victories but most have been earned on an easier circuit while meeting company at a lower level. Not sure he’ll run as well as he did last time. 5-MOHAAFETH is an intriguing runner. He was claimed from his last start in October. He had finished third in that Keeneland race. However, he really hasn’t had many recent drills and his trainer hasn’t claimed any for a long time. His speed figures from the past suggest he’s the fastest of these and he did somehow secure the services of one of the top riders but this is a case of “what have you done for me lately”.

Interesting race. One can make a case for most members of this field. 3-SOUL COAXING won his last start in a game effort. He was able to track the pacesetter and edge by late. The pace of this race could set up in a similar fashion. Might be able to repeat. 5-POLICY OPTION would probably have been the choice with a better workout pattern. He’s making his first start for this barn and his first start of the year. However, he had three works in May and then not another until the end of June. It’s been almost three weeks since that last drill. Don’t know if he’ll be ready to get the distance. 9-SAILING SOLO and 10-NOVGORAD THE GREAT could fight it out for the front end but if one or the other doesn’t break alertly, the other could cruise on the lead.

4-KHOZAN’S SUCCESS was unable to handle better when shipped to Churchill for last but when he raced at this claiming level two starts back, in his first start for this barn, he demolished the field. 2-FIRST MASAMUNE moved a bit too soon two races back and a bit too late in his most recent effort. You know he’ll be running at them late but needs almost perfect timing. 8-IZEONDEC takes on better but he certainly appears to be on top of his game right now. He finished second in his first two starts of the meet and won his last two. Seems to be getting better all the time. Should be a major player today.

2-PILKINGTON might finally get it done. He hasn’t been all that competitive in his races but his speed figures tower over those of his rivals that have raced on the lawn. 4-BERNIN TUNE ran well in his lone start. At that time, he was running for a barn whose runners aren’t pushed to win first time out. That race was last year and he’s in a new barn. Gets first Lasix. Runners racing for them win at a 25% clip from a fairly large sample. Could surprise. 6-SPINNING HEART raced competitively in three of his four races on the lawn. He tends to run out of gas late but he does own good speed and he could last longer in his second start of the meet.

2-PEGGY’S WAY has had three races this meet and she finished second in all of them. She’s dropping in class. Her speed figures are dramatically higher than those of any of her rivals. Graduates today. 7-BABA’S GAL finished in the money in her last three. She looks like the best closer in the field. Expect her to come running late.  3-IRISH SPARK, unlike top choice, has never shown a thing. However, she’s dropping into maiden claimers for the first time and adding blinkers. Would have to expect some improvement. 9-SWEET SMILA also adds blinkers. She finished third in last. Could do better this time. 

An abundance of early speed types could set things up for 2-ROAR OF SILENCE. She came from far back to graduate in last. She’s meeting many dropping in class and this level might be too tough for her but think the pace will set up perfectly. 5-DIAMONDS JOY is the stablemate of top choice. Unlike that filly, this one loves the front end. She has been fading since breaking her maiden but this field could be somewhat easier than those she’s been facing. 7-GETOUTOFMYKITCHEN raced on the lead for much of the year but when she moved back to the Perez barn, they got get to come on late instead. She barely lost her lone turf race this year, edged out by top pick, but she’s another that should love the way the pace sets up, as long as her rider gets her to relax early. 

Race 6: 8 - 4 - 2

Pick4: 2,4,8 / 2,5,6,9 / 2 / 2,4,5,7,10 - $30

The sixth is also a pretty challenging puzzle to solve, but with a lot of speed signed on for this contest, my eyes gravitated towards horses that are going to be flying late. A horse really coming into form right now is #8 Izeondec (6-1), and while this will be the first time he’s facing more than two-time winners, this looks to be a very favorable spot. Between the fast pace in front, leading rider David Cohen back in the irons, and the big favorite that looks like he “needs the lead”, it’s “go-time” at a decent price.

Race 7: 6 - 5 - 2

Interesting turf maiden for Race 7. Heavy favorite #2 Pilkington is trained by Catalano, but he looks to need a lot of pace to win from “the clouds”, and it doesn’t look like he will get it here, but could with the right setup. I landed on #6 Spinning Heart (9-2). While not the most formidable running line, his best number came in his last at Hawthorne after shipping over from Tampa and Fair Grounds. Also, with less speed signed on than in his previous, he should be able to sit a good trip at a decent price. 

Race 8: 2 - 6 - 3

The penultimate at Hawthorne looks to have a very big favorite, and for those that are familiar, this one has been owned by Crown’s Way Racing since her beginnings, #2 Peggy’s Way (8-5). I won’t sugarcoat anything, she has not been good in her previous races giving up leads late, however she looks to lay over this field both tactics and numbers-wise. It would be very disappointing if she doesn’t break her maiden here, barring any insanity that takes place with the break.

Race 9: 2 - 5 – 4

The last at Hawthorne is a great betting race with ten horses entered. The 2-1 ML-fave for Chris Block looks like she is in a tough spot with a lot of speed in the entries. I landed on the other Block horse in this race, #2 Roar of Silence (6-1) with Julio Felix back aboard. This will be her first time facing winners but will be at the same level at where she broke her maiden. If you watch that race, she had to deal with a lot of traffic as she flew from the back and just got up in time after tipping out, which was pretty impressive for a second time starter. She’s back in a race where she should get a very similar setup and at a good price, it is worth a shot to back her again.