Handicapper Tips & Picks

#2 ARTHURIAN moves up with the move back to the turf and overall in this field with the ABOVE+ factors on Class, Speed and Plot. His figures stack up as some of the higher in the field overall and has the BTL place finish under similar condition making a MOVE through TRAFFIC with TROUBLE making a CLOSE in the place finish.

#5 WHATDOYOUTHINKMARK finds a reset for this race and overall changes in the second start back this season. Since the 5/18 return he was entered and scratched when in for the $25k tag and scratched when the races were moved to the main track on 6/29. As far as the TURF he should handle the surface change based on his physicality and the connections had considered running in the Tyro stakes (5f Turf) at MTH last season and before the stakes at PRM.

 Class wise #6 BALADINE takes the class rise to move to the turf a positive change in surface though a tougher spot to compete on the win end though kept in the mix especially as he should be dismissed off the recent running lines and finishing positions and preferred of the group stepping up from the claiming ranks. Value is the concern with #1 RIGHTEOUS FREEDOM as he returns to take on winners and a tougher spot than the field last month – factors that require price compensation.

Looking at the Plot, #2 ITWASTHISBIG appears as the controlling speed sitting in Quad I. Based on his races this season especially the 6/23 race (VF early/late) he should be in that forward role; however he was not always a front runner and in the complexion of this field (and rider change back to A. Centeno) they could rate just off the first flight to work the right trip in today’s group.

From the 6/30 common race #6 JET FLIGHT might bring the most upside as he did not get a chance to run his race that day (SLOG, TROUBLE_S, NO_PUSH) and drawing a line through that his races leading up to that event were on the improve and that pattern can carry today. The winner, #4 HANDSOFFTHEGOODS benefit from a PERFECT trip while recording a new top figure and #5 ROCKET HOTSHOT raced WIDE and will be class tested at this level once again, today’s par is higher than the event last out.

#1 MR. FROST wheels right back for this race and a better overall spot with the change in class. He was right up in the mix for the majority of the race though unable to keep pace with the eventual open length pacesetting winner, Mahoney Road. Number wise MR. FROST has improved with each start this year and could just land in the right time and place at a price today. 

The concern with #4 JOE THE TAILOR is the timing more than the ability especially in today’s race where he should hold a clear pace advantage with the strong Quad I position paired with the lower SpeedRate. If he does take a step up that really opens up the race to any other runner in this field and lacking value in that case with second choice on the ML #5 GOD GUNS N GUTS.

#3 ANDTHETHUNDERROLLS is an interesting player returning to Hawthorne. He will return to the one turn distance here with most of his prior local races contested around two-turns. His local one turn start this season (4/21) was compromised at the break (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) and the top two finishers ran 1-2 gate to wire finishing together and clear. Class wise he finds a lateral change from the recent FAN events and numbers that stack up with today’s par and in line with the recent figures posted from JOE THE TAILOR.

Trip will be crucial for ANDTHETHUNDERROLLS as it will be for #1 DASH TO THE CASH from the rail. With that said, he present overall upside in the second start off the layoff and coming back from a WIDE trip in a higher par event. Going back to last season he took some racing to find his top form and that belated maiden win though in the summer series once finding his form was recording numbers on par that fit with the other two. 

This might be one of the trickier handicapping puzzles on the card (if not the country) given the complexion and depth of this field. The analysis starts with #2 CATEGORY TEN one that is logical in that role as he has held form and win at this level/par twice already this season. He can be upgraded further with the less than ideal TACTIC- last out playing a role in the distant show finish behind the winner C F V Bullet, one that returned to win last week at FAN. With that said to the favor of CATEGORY TEN, he faces some new faces and horses making changes in this spot or with overall form on the improve that can see them competitive.

The change in class will be made for #1 ICE SHARD one that moves up with that change and should be dismissed in this field off the recent running lines and finishing position. He is upgraded in his second start of the form cycle and ABOVE on Class with the change here to run for the claiming tag with both of his May efforts stacking up with figures on today’s par.

D. Cohen picking up the mount on #5 MOHAAFETH looks like a live tell on this runner returning from the layoff in this spot. This one has some back class with the stakes and allowance experience as well as some of the higher figures, though a positive as he remains at the same claiming tag as the connections dropped down for to close out 2023.

Going back to the 6/30 common race features the returning place finisher #3 EXECUTIVE ACTION one that does not present value today as he was 29-1 last out and the place finish aided from the VS early/late race shape. That race shape played against the other A. Meraz runner #6 BOURBON LIFE impacting his outcome racing X_FLOW and keying off his 5/4 and specifically the B+ 6/4 effort he jumps right back into the mix here.

While #7 PATH TO SUCCESS would not be any surprise he has some up short at this level (B-/C+) with a “winning” effort. He did pick up the win under similar conditions back on 3/24 at the FG though found a lower race par than today’s event there and could get attention today off the recent place finish. #4 BAHAMIAN NATIVE also could find attention off the win last month though that was the time and place with the edge that day on pace and flattered with the Slow early and Very Slow late race shape to hold as the BOS to win.

Given the long 319-day layoff, would like to get more creative/value than #5 POLICY OPTION though keep coming back to this horse as he checks too many boxes that fit this race. He has the edge on class and overall consistent figures and for a barn that has been live all meet. His RunStyle comes from off the pace (another reason to want some value) though given the complexion of this field (Sun/30 SpeedRate) should have pace to target and work a trip for L. Colon.

The early pace should be honest with the two outside runners; #9 SAILING SOLO going out for live connections can take a step forward in his second start of the cycle though will be joined by #10 NOVGOROD THE GREAT one that has legit early speed though some stamina (SPRINTER?) question marks. Those two from the outside should be joined by #3 SOUL COAXING one that was upgraded with the positive front wrap removal, a positive prior change that resulted in a win and found that outcome last month.

#7 RED DANGER made his layoff return on 5/25 the closing part of the CD meet. He was back at the sprint distance that day, a sign of a prep given his career placement around two turns, the distance they are back at today. RED DANGER at times has shown some distance and class weakness, though the placement on this circuit and at the flat mile, should be the right move for this horse.

Trainer C. Winebaugh has the pair in this spot and while #1 CADET CORPS has recorded some of the higher figures there is not much between him and #6 MCMONEY on their best day and on current form to upgrade the longer of the two. 

#4 KHOZAN’S SUCCESS holds an advantage in this race on every angle to support as a legitimate favorite in this race. The connections return to Hawthorne and back under similar conditions to the 5/26 event where he recorded a strong B+ with the front end run and looking at the Plot could see a similar outcome.

While KHOZAN’S SUCCESS looks to have a pace advantage they still must deal with #5 FLYING SAMURAI and #7 BLURT at the first call and that pace scenario would benefit #2 FIRST MASAMUNE and #3 TWO COOKIE RULE. The odds and scenario can upgrade TWO COOKIE RULE one that has some upside (Green) factors in this race. His sprint effort last week was sneaky good CLOSE and GALLOP+ to set up for this race and return to the route distance. 

#4 BERNIN TUNE makes a belated return to the races and earned a follow from the local debut last year. He was GREEN all around and in the GATE showing run in spots with the show finish. The connections have been looking for the right spot to return in 2024 and patiently waiting for the grass scratching when the races were taken off the turf at HS earlier this month.

Current C. Block trainee, #9 LICENSE TO STEAL looks the part of a TURF horse and has been the intent for the grass in the first two starts. His first two races did not earn the strongest figures, though from an overall perspective, was competitive pairing B- OptixGRADES in both tries. The connections will also be represented by #12 I O FEDRO one that also has been looking for turf entered three times this season, though two of those times was entered for the $20k tag.

#11 CAT ON TIME can be upgraded naturally showing up on this circuit with today’s par lower than what he has experienced in the three CD races and consistent figures that  #1 RICKY’S BEST is also one to not ignore completely. He had some setbacks following the debut late in 2022 before returning from the 547-day layoff on 6/29 and made a positive PRERACE+ appearance and none of the horses had a chance behind the open length pacesetting winner, McQueen.

Those runners being lightly races provide alternatives to the established group of #5 WOLF HUNTER and #6 SPINNING HEART and even #2 PILKINGTON, one that does find a higher race par returning here from the two most recent starts and would have to show more to win. 

#3 IRISH SPARK presents an alternative to the expected heavy favorite in #2 PEGGY’S WAY. The change in class comes into play for both, though IRISH SPARK will make her debut in MCL company here. She is further upgraded from the races this season as well as the tougher Oaklawn debut especially the 6/1 local start given a massive X_BIAS upgrade making a WIDE MOVE after the SLOG/TROUBLE_S on a rainy day (WEATHER) day that was tough to make up ground and favored inside runners. The class drop PEGGY’S WAY finds here benefit #9 SWEET SMILA on 6/29 with the improved B- OptixGRADE effort that day and the edge over the others in this field from the $62.5k level. 

#11 ENZI holds the class edge in this field making the circuit switch and shift from allowance company. Those changes are not a concern, rather reasonable as she has not shown much improvement and her consistency/class fits right on par here.

#1 SHE’S INTHEARMYNOW and #5 DIAMONDS JOY also makes the change to run for a claiming tag though overall finds closer to a lateral move from their races to date and must step up for the top spot and both making the distance change with DIAMONDS JOY one that does have some route experience. Her C. Block stablemate #2 ROAR OF SILENCE caught the right group and overcame the early TROUBLE to pick up the maiden win on 6/30 and takes the rise against winners here.

#9 LEIPZIG just might be the type that struggles to pair up top efforts and that being the part of the excuse for the poor (C) effort in the most recent start. She could also be given an upgrade chasing NO_COVER up close to a Very Fast early pace and going back to the 6/8 start earned a B OptixGRADE that should translate here. The dynamic of this field should also allow for her to sit back and make a run with many stretching out in distance and sharing an E/EP RunStyle. That scenario with the Sun/46 SpeedRate should assist a C/Closer like #4 MS KS DYNASTY one that does not hold an edge in this group even with that RunStyle as a QII/IV Circle.