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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Thu July 18th, 2024

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Jim's Picks

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 2:10 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
6 Baladine - 10/1 2 Arthurian - 9/5 7 Secession - 8/1

A lot of rain (3+ inches) since Sunday in the Chicagoland area as I fully expect everything to be run on the main track Thursday. With that in mind, 6-BALADINE moves up on dirt as he posted and improved effort in his last and keeps Slevinsky in the saddle. I expect him to stalk the pace and move forwardly in the lane. 2-ARTHURIAN stayed in when races came off the grass last out and just kind of ran evenly. His figure from that race still puts him in the mix here as he has shown past ability to show some early speed. 7-SECESSION has tactical speed and looks to be a factor on turf or dirt. He posted and improved effort in his last and can't be dismissed in here.

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 2:38 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
5 Rocket Hotshot - 7/2 4 Handsoffthegoods - 5/2 2 Itwasthisbig - 3/1

A pretty evenly matched bunch here in a spot where pace makes the race. Slava Ukraini is going to head to the top but could have company. If that's the case, 5-ROCKET HOTSHOT could be the one to get the trip. He has been very good in his last four starts and has won every other during that period. The pace setup should benefit his chances as he looks to rally late. 4-HANDSOFFTHEGOODS was a good winner at this level in his last and should also benefit if the pace is contested upfront. The stretch back in distance looks to benefit him as Reyes returns in the saddle. 2-ITWASTHISBIG is one that could push things along early one as he gets back to the Hawthorne dirt. He was competitive while facing tougher early in the meet as you can toss out his last on the grass.

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 3:06 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
4 Joe the Tailor - 6/5 2 Verrazanointhesky - 6/1 1 Dash to the Cash - 8/1

Was looking to see if you could beat the favorite but I just don't see it happening with 4-JOE THE TAILOR today. The pace complexion of this race is much different from his last where he was pushed the entire way. He should be able to coast along early in this spot and have more than enough left in the lane. 2-VERRAZANOINTHESKY ran a nice race two back and held his own at this level in his last. He could look to rate a bit closer early in here as he's worth a look while at a price. 1-DASH TO THE CASH should welcome the added 16th as he looks to pick up the pieces late. He likely needed his last off the layoff as he should close quickly while at a price.

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 3:34 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
3 Executive Action - 4/1 7 Path to Success - 9/2 2 Category Ten - 8/5

With the race coming off the turf, it may have been a good thing for 3-EXECUTIVE ACTION last out as he ran a big race behind a good winner. He should be able to rate close early in a race that doesn't have a ton of pace as Mojica takes the return ride. 7-PATH TO SUCCESS will need some pace to chase as he also comes off a good effort in a race taken off the grass. This is his second start for the new connections as he should be running on late. 2-CATEGORY TEN has been solid all season but seemed to battle his rider a bit last out in a race that had no pace. If allowed to run early in here, he could potentially get a perfect trip and run on late.

Hawthorne Race 5

Post Time 4:02 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
10 Novgorod the Great - 8/1 2 Bandit Swanson - 10/1 3 Soul Coaxing - 9/2

A really solid field on turf or dirt as all three selections should be worth a look on both. 10-NOVGOROD THE GREAT ran a big race on the main track in his last as he showed good early speed and ran on late. He will need to avoid hooking up with Sailing Solo but benefits from the class relief and can't be overlooked. 2-BANDIT SWANSON is another that looks to be solid on any surface. The big question for him is the layoff but his worktab is excellent and he appears ready off the bench. 3-SOUL COAXING was a game winner on the grass in his last and was a game second in the mud two back. Turf or dirt he figures to contend as he looks to find a good stalking position.

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 4:30 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
8 Izeondec - 6/1 1 Not Very Gentle - 12/1 4 Khozan's Success - 8/5

There's a good amount of pace in this race which should set things up nicely for the closers. Going to give the nod to 8-IZEONDEC as he comes in off a pair of victories and a short layoff. Cohen has been an excellent fit in the saddle for him as the setup ahead of him should be perfect. 1-NOT VERY GENTLE is another that is likely to run on late. His form last year was very sharp and his recent race progression shows he could be ready to step up. 4-KHOZAN'S SUCCESS returns from an effort at Churchill in his last as he also comes back off the rest. He is one of those with speed though but ran a huge race when at this level two back.

Hawthorne Race 7

Post Time 4:58 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
9 License to Steal - 5/1 2 Pilkington - 2/1 5 Wolf Hunter - 6/1

Another race where the top three can be major contenders on turf or dirt. One that has been trying to get on the grass but hasn't yet is 9-LICENSE TO STEAL. He held his own on the dirt in both starts as has some tactical speed. With his second start around two turns I expect to see some improvement while at a price. 2-PILKINGTON ran a solid second in a race taken off the turf in his last as he chased and ran on late. He was also good on the turf two back. He draws favorably and should be in a perfect stalking spot. 5-WOLF HUNTER was a good second on grass two back while rallying late. He stayed in on the main track last out and ran on behind another Perez runner. He may be a price play in here.

Hawthorne Race 8

Post Time 5:26 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
2 Peggy's Way - 8/5 3 Irish Spark - 3/1 5 Arrington - 12/1

This has to be the spot for 2-PEGGY'S WAY as she drops down to a winning level and looks to be the controlling pace. She ran well in all three starts this meet and comes in off a solid work. 3-IRISH SPARK also drops in class, with a bigger drop into here. She ran a good race two back over a fast track and will get a fast strip once again.  Expect her to take her fair share of action. 5-ARRINGTON will be hoping for some pace to chase as she turns back to the sprint. I do expect she gets that pace upfront but oftentimes she comes running too late.

Hawthorne Race 9

Post Time 5:54 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
2 Roar of Silence - 6/1 10 Highwood - 10/1 1 She's Inthearmynow - 5/1

A good winner in her last, 2-ROAR OF SILENCE looks to be sitting in a good spot once again. She gets some pace to chase in here and figures to close quickly. Let's see if she can win right back. 10-HIGHWOOD stretches out for the first time as she is one that has some speed. From the outside draw she should be able to see what the speed to her inside chooses to do as that could dictate her trip. 1-SHE'S INTHEARMYNOW is another that stretches out as she should be good on turf or dirt. She also has that early speed to contend as she should get sent away from the rail.