Handicapper Tips & Picks

2-ARTHURIAN often goes for the lead but two races back he came from off the pace in his turf debut and narrowly missed. Raced in fifth throughout in his next start that was scheduled for turf but moved to dirt. Have to like his chances if this race does stay on turf but not too sure how he’ll run if this race does get moved to dirt. 5-Have to give 5-WHATDOYOUTHINKMARK one more chance at this level. He was a monster winner in his career debut but has been trounced in his two races since. However, he was gelded following his last race and he’s been training well since. 8-A P BLAZING GREEN just graduated. However, he ran well in his last three turf races. His speed figures are competitive. Wouldn’t overlook.

2-ITWASTHISBIG drops in class after a terrible effort in his turf debut. He was in relatively good form prior to that race while meeting better rivals. Guessing he’ll wake up big time with the return to dirt. 4-HANDSOFFTHEGOODS just scored in a race containing many of these rivals. The pace could set up in the same way. Could easily repeat. 3-SLAVA UKRAINI will go right for the lead and take it as far as he can.

4-JOE THE TAILOR gets a small nod. He couldn’t keep up with the talented Tahoe Run in last and ran out of gas trying. He will be meeting some others with speed today but none are likely to tax him early. Can wire the field. 1-DASH TO THE CASH needed last. He raced evenly early but ran out of gas late. However, that last race might have been the tightener he needed. He needs to sit back early and unleash his closing move in midstretch. 5-GOD GUNS AND GUTS just finished second at almost 60-1. He edged out Joe the Tailor for that place finish. If that rival faces unexpected pressure again, this one just might be able to get by him again.

2-CATEGORY TEN should be the one to beat. He won twice at this level early in the meet and finished in the money in last two versus similar. However, his speed figure dropped off significantly in his most recent start and he didn’t finish with his usual authority. Might be vulnerable. 3-EXECUTIVE ACTION outran his odds to finish second in his last start. He finished ahead of top choice while doing it. He has six victories but most have been earned on an easier circuit while meeting company at a lower level. Not sure he’ll run as well as he did last time. 5-MOHAAFETH is an intriguing runner. He was claimed from his last start in October. He had finished third in that Keeneland race. However, he really hasn’t had many recent drills and his trainer hasn’t claimed any for a long time. His speed figures from the past suggest he’s the fastest of these and he did somehow secure the services of one of the top riders but this is a case of “what have you done for me lately”.

Interesting race. One can make a case for most members of this field. 3-SOUL COAXING won his last start in a game effort. He was able to track the pacesetter and edge by late. The pace of this race could set up in a similar fashion. Might be able to repeat. 5-POLICY OPTION would probably have been the choice with a better workout pattern. He’s making his first start for this barn and his first start of the year. However, he had three works in May and then not another until the end of June. It’s been almost three weeks since that last drill. Don’t know if he’ll be ready to get the distance. 9-SAILING SOLO and 10-NOVGORAD THE GREAT could fight it out for the front end but if one or the other doesn’t break alertly, the other could cruise on the lead.

4-KHOZAN’S SUCCESS was unable to handle better when shipped to Churchill for last but when he raced at this claiming level two starts back, in his first start for this barn, he demolished the field. 2-FIRST MASAMUNE moved a bit too soon two races back and a bit too late in his most recent effort. You know he’ll be running at them late but needs almost perfect timing. 8-IZEONDEC takes on better but he certainly appears to be on top of his game right now. He finished second in his first two starts of the meet and won his last two. Seems to be getting better all the time. Should be a major player today.

2-PILKINGTON might finally get it done. He hasn’t been all that competitive in his races but his speed figures tower over those of his rivals that have raced on the lawn. 4-BERNIN TUNE ran well in his lone start. At that time, he was running for a barn whose runners aren’t pushed to win first time out. That race was last year and he’s in a new barn. Gets first Lasix. Runners racing for them win at a 25% clip from a fairly large sample. Could surprise. 6-SPINNING HEART raced competitively in three of his four races on the lawn. He tends to run out of gas late but he does own good speed and he could last longer in his second start of the meet.

2-PEGGY’S WAY has had three races this meet and she finished second in all of them. She’s dropping in class. Her speed figures are dramatically higher than those of any of her rivals. Graduates today. 7-BABA’S GAL finished in the money in her last three. She looks like the best closer in the field. Expect her to come running late.  3-IRISH SPARK, unlike top choice, has never shown a thing. However, she’s dropping into maiden claimers for the first time and adding blinkers. Would have to expect some improvement. 9-SWEET SMILA also adds blinkers. She finished third in last. Could do better this time. 

An abundance of early speed types could set things up for 2-ROAR OF SILENCE. She came from far back to graduate in last. She’s meeting many dropping in class and this level might be too tough for her but think the pace will set up perfectly. 5-DIAMONDS JOY is the stablemate of top choice. Unlike that filly, this one loves the front end. She has been fading since breaking her maiden but this field could be somewhat easier than those she’s been facing. 7-GETOUTOFMYKITCHEN raced on the lead for much of the year but when she moved back to the Perez barn, they got get to come on late instead. She barely lost her lone turf race this year, edged out by top pick, but she’s another that should love the way the pace sets up, as long as her rider gets her to relax early.