Handicapper Tips & Picks

There doesn’t appear to be a lot of speed in this race and 5-LEGENDARY PHANTOM could provide all of it. He finished third here a couple weeks ago in a similar field but was coming off a brief layoff. Might be able to put away any challengers and hold the late runners safe. 2-PONCHO ATTACK, 7-MILLARD A MAVERICK and 9=BLACK RUSSIAN are all likely to be flying late. 4-SHTARKER drops, turns back in distance and moves to the lawn. He was also gelded since his lone start. He was terrible in his debut but is always eligible to improve.

4-WILDWOOD MINISTRY hasn’t raced poorly since getting claimed by these connections but he has simply been in over his head. Drops to the lowest level of his career. Switches to the leading rider. Guessing he’ll be far tougher at this level. 1-TONY’S MORNING LINE drops off the claim That’s usually not a sign of confidence, especially since the winning purse wouldn’t offer much of a profit if he got claimed again, but this barn has been very successful this meet by placing horses where they can win. 3-CODETOWIN finished third as the favorite in his lone local start but he hasn’t raced since late May and he’s had only one slow and short work since. Have to respect the barn but not in love with this runner.

3-BABE IN THE WOODS gets the nod. She finished second at this level two races back and pressed the pace for much of last before tiring late. Few others in here have shown much on the lawn. She gets the benefit of the doubt. 5-REALISTIC GOAL takes a needed drop. So far, she hasn’t shown a lot but she has always been in against better rivals. 7-SAFECRACKER SUE finished fourth in her two turf starts. She was well behind top choice the first time they met but well ahead of her in last. Switches from one hot rider to another. Figures prominently. 2-MACHIVA is bred to love the lawn. Might improve with the switch in surfaces.

Not really sure what to do with 5-RAINY MOUNTAIN. She has always faced much better. She’s been in terrible form this year but she is dropping many levels to take on this group. No guarantees but have to think she’ll improve greatly against this easier company. I never get 3-GO STORMIN GIRL right. I almost always pick against her but she keeps making me regret it. She looks like the best speed in this race. Could easily wire the field. 2-MYSTIC STORM might have moved a little too soon in last. She did flatten out late. However, that was her first race in over three months. Could be fitter after that trip.

1-EVEN THE WIND drops from allowance company. It took him nine races to break his maiden and when he didn’t show enough versus allowance company, his savvy connections dropped him to a spot where he can win. He’s not a lock in this race but the others are going to really have to step up their game to beat him. 8-WE MISS ARLINGTON did finish second in his lone grass race. He is bred for the surface and could improve with experience but think he’ll have to improve considerably to beat top pick. 4-SHARP STICK didn’t run poorly in his lone turf start, a maiden special event in June of 2023. He finished fifth but was only two lengths back at the finish. His recent dirt form hasn’t been bad. Doesn’t seem likely to be a match for top choice but he could turn out to be the best of the rest.

2-COACH JIMMY D has had two local starts and ran well in both. He graduated by seven in his local debut and finished second in last after fighting for the lead much of the way. Even though his highest speed figure was generated in last when he was fighting for the lead, possibly his best race was when he came from off the pace for his maiden win. With all the other speed in here the ability to close could be the winning advantage. 3-CONI’S COUP could be the best of the speed. He wired good claimers in his last start. He’s likely to try the same scenario today. 5-GLUCKSTADT should appreciate the move back to the main track. He just didn’t seem to handle the turf in last despite some grass success in the past. He’s at his best when stalking the pace and should be able to sit right behind the early leaders today.

Think we’ll see surprising speed from 1-FROM SCRATCH. She was trounced in her lone start, at Churchill, but she got checked in the race and never recovered. There are shipping her in here to try her on turf. She gets the top local rider for this trip. Can surprise. 6-HA HA GLORIA looks like the one to beat. However, she’s had only three races; one in 2022, one in 2023, and one so far this year. She did finish second in her race here but she that race was in May and she has been based at Canterbury with their beautiful turf course. But she has finished second in all of her races. Hard to gauge. 12-MISCHIEF LILY turns back to a sprint. Not sure she can even get going at this short distance since she has no speed and starts to run very late in her routes. But her barn wins with 335 of their turnback runners and she is in good form. Could be tough if she draws in. 

4-NAP LOVER was well beaten in his lone start but he was facing a runner that had been threatening against better for a long time. Runners from his barn tend to need a race to top off their conditioning. With that start under his best, he figures to be far tougher in this one. 1-SENDEMDOWNTHEROAD could be the best of the speed. However, he hasn’t exhibited a lot of staying power. Have little doubt he’ll be on or right off the lead quickly but not sure how long he’ll stay there. 7-MALIBU BRAD couldn’t handle better company in his first start after getting claimed by this barn but he could be a longer lasting forward factor with the drop back to the right level.

9-COVENANT LADY ships in from Indiana and apparently brings her rider with her. She’s been racing against some pretty tough rivals and her speed figures are among the best in here. Figures to be a major player.7-SHE’S WANDAFUL needed last. Like many of her rivals in here she enjoys good early speed but it’s her ability to race right off the pace and then finish with something left that makes her dangerous in here. 3-MADELYN BELLE is two for two at the distance. Like top pick she has the ability to rate as well as to go for the lead.