Handicapper Tips & Picks

#1 HIGHWOOD projects to be the speed of the speed (Q1 Square) and flow upgrade from the 6/2 PRM even staying on as the BOS through a Fast early pace. The return to HAW is logical along with the drop placing her where she can compete as she has not shown much improvement this season.

Picking up the chase from off the pace (Q4 Square) are both the other class droppers #3 RESOLUTION and #5 QUIERO DINERO, runners that should benefit from the change though still must work a trip with their runstyle. Figure wise they do not hold much, if any edge over HIGHWOOD and even some of the back dirt numbers for #6 FREEDOM ATTACK one that should be the higher of that trio. 

J. Loveberry could be sitting on the early “1” double with #1 STERLING LUCK one that moves up on this circuit with her current form and figures. While she will make the move to MSW from the higher $50k MCL event last out at CD, today’s par is lower. She follows a similar “second off” pattern keying off the FG series and show finish back in January.

#4 ANOINTED OF GOD turned in a winning effort (B) for the level last out at HS Indy though had to work HARD given the trip to just get run down late. There would be greater concern here if she were again wheeling back on shorter rest, though the 49-days since should provide adequate recovery. Her ability to show early speed should give her the jump on STERLING LUCK and has that early pace advantage over #3 ELODINE, one that set a Very Slow early and late pace unable to hold the lead here last month. 

Loveberry continue to look live showing up on FTS starter #2 I O FEDRO for C. Block. The connections have been patient as this one has been entered four times this season scratched with the most recent races taken off the turf. A couple of those races were in at this $20k MCL level and does appear to be where they think he fits.

#4 PRINCE IS MY BOY has plenty of stamina and proven router that could just land him in the right field and timing with the live barn. He will make the belated move back to the turf, the surface of his second career start in the summer of 2023 at CBY and turned in a solid show finish that day and since has improved his numbers that could easily transfer to the turf.

In terms of speed figures, both #3 MY BROTHER MIKE and #5 ALL ABOUT TONIGHT fit strongly with today’s par and tough to knock on that front. With that said, both runners have shown distance limitations and have themselves to overcome back at this route distance – the two turns also unproven for #1 RED RIZZLER though does have the “new” face factor going for him on that front and can be given a flow-upgrade from the 7/6 event racing up close to a Very Fast early pace. The early pace should be honest with both #6 SKYLANE and #7 LONE RETURN in this field and drawn outside have little choice but to put themselves in the race from the jump for their best chance to compete. 

#4 A REAL HERO finds some hidden class relief out of the recent open $5k claiming events at FAN and clear class relief from the races earlier in the cycle from Turfway along with back class starting out her career in Southern California. As far as the recent races she has started to show hesitancy (SLOG) out of the gate though on 6/29 made a MOVE and strong GALLOP+ to finish in a blanket for show to suggest she still has interest. The barn change was made after that race and could be intent with J. Watkins showing up back at HAW (other race was a OC $20k here April 2023 for M. Reavis) with main rider A. Centeno aboard. The race shape is a tricky one with the “Fire” Contention, four of the seven sharing the E/EP runstyle though paired with the lower SpeedRate. That early “bunched” scenario can assist a closer to work a trip and would certainly be in their favor from the expected (Q4 Square) off-the-pace trip. 

Depending on the weather this race could move to the main track and assist the lone MTO runner, #8 TU CHA finding a lower par in this second start of the meet, the type of DROP she does require to compete. #6 CLASSIC PERFORMER is not entered MTO though comes into this race with current dirt form to fit on par. She is interesting moving back to the turf for G. Forster for just the second time since the claim, giving her a look on either surface. The similar surface versatility comes into play for #1 DOROTHY CROWFOOT one that has held her form returning from the layoff looking for that first win. The rider change could signal intent and off her runstyle (pace), current form/figures is logical on that front as well. 

Looking at the Plot, #7 LUCY JANE appears to hold a strong pace advantage as a Quad I Square. This will be her second start off the layoff and going back to the CD 6/2 race was fractious in the GATE and chased a Fast early pace before losing ground (NO_KEEP) and was NO_PUSH after. Overall, she has some concerns with the pattern of layoff lines, though shows up second off the layoff and with a top rider in A. Centeno aboard to assist on confidence level and given the recent running lines and finishing positions should bring price compensation.

A lot of attention should land with the two other class droppers, #5 LADY HELENA (where J. Loveberry shows up) and #6 I’M BOX OFFICE given the connections along with the change that should move them up naturally. Those factors also create appeal as the “new faces” where as #1 SEQUAYA, #3 HOLY IMAGE and #4 SAPPHIRE NIGHTS all have been running at this level and tougher to endorse for the top spot (without plenty of price compensation) though all capable for an underneath share. 

Regardless of surface tough to ignore #3 SIVAKO upgraded with the return to Hawthorne and class relief from the higher N3 last out at CD, a tougher spot (DROP) for him to compete for the top spot. #4 ANOTHER MYSTERY moves up with the scratch of their stablemate - and as projected probably will race with this race staying on the turf. He showed his class with the Bucks Boy stakes win last month and overall consistency to hold his own in this open company allowance group. 

Looking at the Plot, the Fire Contention paired with the higher 67 SpeedRate assists the Quad IV Square position of ANOTHER MYSTERY.

The other Squares; #5 LEADING THE CHARGE should benefit from the start returning second-off the long layoff and less than ideal TACTIC- trip last month. He is in strong hands with J. Loveberry and could establish first run on ANOTHER MYSTERY. In terms of #1 VOTE NO he has numbers and class that fit on par. The biggest question is distance, still unproven two turns, though his one route even, the Bourbon (G2) in the juvenile season was a fine enough third to give him another chance by the connections. 

#5 TIZ A COUNTRY GIRL looks spotted to win on the class DROP. She shows up in this spot with consistent form (both turf/dirt) just requiring the right level to get the win and should find that here. She is in good hands with trainer W. Catalano on the path to a new milestone and J. Loveberry aboard.

The presence of TIZ A COUNTRY GIRL in this race should add pace (QI/III Square) without being a natural “frontrunner” putting pressure on those Quad I/II runners in this race shape, including #7 EMITYAAZ. That scenario should assist the Quad IV Squares: #6 SIGNATURE STREET another that should benefit from the class relief and upgraded off the recent “trips” though does still require some racing luck overall; #9 MAIDEN ROCK finds a lateral change in class though returning from a BTL effort last out at CBY and showed run (B-/C+) here this season with the improving figures shown in the Past 3 Runlines. 

The analysis starts with #8 EASY FAST one that is likely to be favored for the connections and on the class drop despite returning from the long layoff here. Physically he presents as a sprinter and one with some class concerns making this drop not as much of a concern though it does come with the long layoff, and projected shorter odds. He must also deal with the other dropper #2 EXTRA HALO shipping in for A. Granitz and one that has the edge in recency. With that said, he has just the one race that fits on par the maiden win last November at CD (with the track profile) that makes him a player.

As a creative, price alternative, #7 ICE AXE should present some value here off the recent running lines and finishing positions. He holds established form from his maiden days with figures on par. His form has held in the two starts against winners (claimed out of his maiden win in May) and upgraded with the subtle changes from the 6/23 race. Timing wise they raced on shorter rest between starts and also against a higher $25k claiming group and race par. In addition, were asked to race closer to the pace than their ideal, something that was not favorable on the day though should allow for fitness as they show up in sprint.

#1 ALIBI IKE perhaps a bit more “obvious” with the recent in-the-money finishes as he makes the change in class looking for the right level to win here. He is a major player and intent in this spot and should be able to sit off the main speed in EXTRA HALO and EASY FAST looking for first run (Quad I Square) and the class edge over #3 MINING CAMP with a similar projected trip. 

A reminder that this Thursday card has a Late Pick 5 and Late Pick 4 carryover, both over $8,000. A competitive field in the opener as 5-QUIERO DINERO moves back to the main track as she takes the class drop today. She gets some pace to chase in here and the Haran barn has had a solid year. 1-HIGHWOOD scratched from a two turn race that was taken off the turf as she turns back to the main track in this spot. She has speed and draws the rail as she comes off the layoff. Let's see if she can clear and wire this group. 2-PROBLEMATICA is the other with speed as she ran a decent dirt race against allowance company two back and figures to get sent for the lead today. If she can clear she may never look back.

With Indiana dark for the week, we see some new runners coming to Hawthorne. One of those is 4-ANOINTED OF GOD as she narrowly missed in a pair of dirt routes. She showed speed and posted big numbers in both of those races. Romero comes in to ride as she figures to make the top and never look back. 1-STERLING LUCK rallied late in her last at Churchill as she will just need a contested pace in this spot. Loveberry is back to ride as he picks up a slew of live mounts on the Thursday card. 6-JOYZELLA stretched back out to go two turns in her last as she chased and ran on late to hold place. She should be able to rate close once again as she could hang around for a share late.

First of three on the grass in a very evenly matched bunch. 2-I O FEDRO has been looking to get onto the grass as he has worked well toward the debut. He gets Lasix for this spot as I figure he should rate close and contend throughout. 3-MY BROTHER MIKE is going to need pace to chase as he should be running on late. He ran well at this level three back but is tough to look to on top with the 0 for 30 lifetime record. 7-LONE RETURN ran well in his last three on the grass, showing speed around two turns last out. He drops in for the tag in this spot as Slevinsky has given him good trips in his last three.

A wildy contentious race as all of these are in the mix. The pace should be honest upfront, setting things up for the late close of 4-A REAL HERO. She was claimed out of her last and finds things a bit easier in this spot. Expect her to settle early and close with a rush. 7-LADY ATLANTIC is another that can close late as she was a winner at a massive price two back and ran a decent race in her last. She has run respectable races over the track and at the distance throughout her career as she figures to contend at a price once again. 1-MISS WINDY SLEW was a good winner last out, posting a strong figure with that effort. The question in here is if she is able to repeat that performance or bounces off of it.

This is a really weird race! The outside three horses all take drastic drops, with two of the three coming out of turf races. They also all run for solid barns so it is tough to determine what the intent in. There's a chance too that they all run well, but I'm not sold on any of these moves. I'm looking to 4- SAPPHIRE NIGHTS as she has been on an every other race pattern and should be sitting on a good race today. She has tactical speed and should sit just off Lucy Jane in here. Let's see if she can wear that one down late at a price. 3-HOLY IMAGE has run well all meet as she figures to close into the mix late in here. Her last two have been good second place performances as she could sneak into the exacta once again. 5-LADY HELENA is one that I wonder about because she has run some good races recently but now switches surfaces and drops in class. Loveberry gets the call though as she will either win this race by a bunch or struggle over the main track.

A quality bunch on the grass here with three different stakes winner in this spot. The most decorated is 4-ANOTHER MYSTERY as he comes off a game victory in the Buck's Boy over yielding going. He showed a lot of grit in that race as he had to work hard to catch the lone speed in that spot. The same could happen again today as the pace doesn't look to be overly quick upfront. 1-VOTE NO is another stakes winner as he won over the Kentucky Downs turf last September in his second career start. He ran a really good second in the Grade 2 Bourbon at Keeneland following that start and could sneak away at a bit of a price today. 5-LEADING THE CHARGE comes in from Indiana for this race as he tries the Hawthorne turf for the first time. He's won half of his 16 career starts and appeared to not miss a beat despite a long layoff in his last start.

Trainer Wayne Catalano won his 3,000th race on Sunday at Ellis. If he hadn't won there, the 5-TIZ A COUNTRY GIRL would have been the likely winner for number 3,000. She has been on the grass in her last couple but her dirt race three back was solid as well. She drops to win in here as another live Loveberry mount. 7-EMITYAAZ has run well all meet as she has been knocking on the door. There's not a ton of pace in this race as she figures to rate close the entire way. Let's see if she can get the jump on the favorite and hold her off late. 9-MAIDEN ROCK has improved in her last three, running a good third in Minnesota in her last. While she may not be in the mix for the victory, there's a chance she can get into the mix underneath while at a price.

It took a while to drop to the winning spot for 3-MINING CAMP but once he did there was little doubt that he was going to break his maiden. He posted a solid figure in that spot as well. I like that he stays at the sprint distance in here. The question is if the jump back to $12,500 is going to be too much or not. 1-ALIBI IKE ran a good second in his last but now takes the drop for this race. It's a bit of a curious move considering the last race but at the same time he was claimed for only $7,500 and has won since the claim. 4-TALLAPOOSA was sharp in a maiden victory in his last as he stalked the pace and ran on late. The trip could be similar in here with a pair with speed to his inside. Let's see if he can repeat that last performance.

2-PROBLEMATICA is one of many in here dropping in class but think she might have the advantage over the rest. I believe she’s quicker than the rest. She has been fading late in her races since her maiden win but she’s likely to have a far easier time getting to the lead at this level. Plus, she’s moving from turf to dirt, a 24% winning move for her barn. 1-HIGHWOOD ships back from Iowa and is another dropping in class. She is in better form than the rest of the field. She doesn’t appear to be as quick as top choice but might be able to sustain her speed for longer. 5-QUIERO DINERO figures prominently. She showed little in her local debut but was in against better while making her turf debut. Guessing she’ll show far more with the class drop and the return to her preferred surface.

4-ANOINTED OF GOD looks tough. This Indiana shipper isn’t the only speed but she ran very well in her two dirt races and lost her last by less than a length. 1-STERLING LUCK flies late. She’s another coming off a narrow loss. Her’s took place at Churchill where she came in second, a neck back, in a race that was slightly shorter. 3-ELODINE is another that likes the front end. However, she doesn’t appear to be as quick as top choice and she really hasn’t shown a lot of staying power.

4-PRINCE IS MY BOY could surprise. There is a lot of apparent speed in this race and this gelding races evenly while closing at times. He’s bred for the lawn and finished third in his lone grass trip. 7-LONE RETURN might outlast the rest of the front running types. He didn’t show much in his first three turf races, all sprints, but he led most of the way in last, his first grass race around two turns. That was also his first two-turn race of any type. Could be better prepared to get the distance today. 2-I O FEDRO makes his debut. His works have been sufficient for one of the top turf barns around.

2-SUPORB has been sharp since getting here. She wired the field in her local debut and then narrowly missed in her last against a similar field. She’ll have to deal with plenty of other speed but she has shown good tenacity in her local starts so far. I want to love 4-A REAL HERO. He was claimed from last and moves to a far hotter barn. Plus, the pace of this race sets up perfectly for his running style. However, his barn, winning at a 24% rate for the year between multiple tracks, is winless in their last 22 starts off first-time claims. 7-LADY ATLANTIC has been in decent form for the last month or so. She seldom gains much respect but she won two starts back, beating top choice, and paid over $150. The pace will set up for her again.

Tough race to figure. From a pace standpoint, you have to think that 1-DOROTHY CROWFOOT should get the trip. Although she owns good speed, others in here are quicker and she did show in last that she’s capable of coming on late. 5-BEAUTY OF THE NILE improved dramatically when they moved her to the weeds. She gamely won her grass debut and then had an easier time of it in last. But she is going to have plenty of company upfront. Can she withstand the pressure again? 6-CLASSIC PERFORMER tired when they stretched her out on the main track for last but she’s turning back in distance for her return to the lawn. She generally races on or right off the lead but that route race might have tempered her speed a bit. Can finish with something in reserve.

5-LADY HELENA drops and turns back in distance to make her dirt debut. She’s been in decent form against better rivals but she might be able to dominate at this level if she handles the dirt. 6-I’M BOX OFFINE finished 16 lengths behind top choice in last but she does have an excuse. She got squeezed at the start and was never able to make up any ground. Like top pick, she’s dropping in class to race on dirt for the first time. She was favored in that last start. Might make amends in this spot. 7-LUCY JANE completes the trio of those dropping sharply. She’s had only one start in each of the last two years and finished up the track both times. Might fare better at this level.

4-ANOTHER MYSTERY could be tough in a very tough race. Fresh off a victory in the $75,000 Illinois bred Buck’s Boy Handicap, this talented 8-year-old has already surpassed $700,000 in earnings. Lacking any early speed, we can figure that he’ll be closing fastest of all. 8-HERN is entered for the main track only. Although it seems unlikely to rain, this is Chicago and the weather can change here in a hurry. He’s been in against some pretty tough fields this year. If this race does get moved to the main track, he will wind up facing a much easier group. 1-VOTE NO could be a factor on either surface. He’s been racing on synthetic this year but he was good on the lawn when he was two, winning the Juvenile Sprint at Kentucky Downs and then finishing third in the Grade 2 Bourbon in the last time he ran on turf. He’ll be racing with blinkers for the first time which could help his focus. 7-CODE NAME could be the best of the speed. He wired the field in last; his first two-turn race since moving to this barn. If not pressured early, he might be able to do it again.

5-TIZ A COUNTRY GIRL ran well in all her races since moving to this barn and all of her races have been in better company. So, it’s a bit surprising to see her dropping in class. But the trainer, who recently scored his 3,000th career victory, wins a lot of races because he places runners in the right spot. It looks like this is the right spot for her. Can win at a short price. 7-EMITYAAZ came up just a head short in last at this level after leading from the start. She seems to have only one to beat to the lead in this race. Might not get caught. 6-SIGNATURE STREET appears to be facing her easiest field ever. She’s been finishing up the track all year but this could be the perfect spot for her to turn it around.

2-EXTRA HALO maybe drops to score. He’s plenty fast but he hasn’t been able to sustain that speed while meeting better company. At this level he might never look back. 8-EASY FAST makes his first start since September. He’s also dropping many levels. Finished far back in both his races against winners but he’ll have a far better chance against runners at this level. 1-ALIBI IKE, like many in here, is dropping in class but he seems to be in better form than most. He’s had nine races at the distance and never finished better than third but it’s been a long time since he was in this easy. Could edge by late.