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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Thu July 25th, 2024

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Jim's Picks

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 2:10 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
5 Quiero Dinero - 2-1 1 Highwood - 9-5 2 Problematica - 6-1

A reminder that this Thursday card has a Late Pick 5 and Late Pick 4 carryover, both over $8,000. A competitive field in the opener as 5-QUIERO DINERO moves back to the main track as she takes the class drop today. She gets some pace to chase in here and the Haran barn has had a solid year. 1-HIGHWOOD scratched from a two turn race that was taken off the turf as she turns back to the main track in this spot. She has speed and draws the rail as she comes off the layoff. Let's see if she can clear and wire this group. 2-PROBLEMATICA is the other with speed as she ran a decent dirt race against allowance company two back and figures to get sent for the lead today. If she can clear she may never look back.

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 2:38 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
4 Anointed of God - 7-5 1 Sterling Luck - 3-1 6 Joyzella - 6-1

With Indiana dark for the week, we see some new runners coming to Hawthorne. One of those is 4-ANOINTED OF GOD as she narrowly missed in a pair of dirt routes. She showed speed and posted big numbers in both of those races. Romero comes in to ride as she figures to make the top and never look back. 1-STERLING LUCK rallied late in her last at Churchill as she will just need a contested pace in this spot. Loveberry is back to ride as he picks up a slew of live mounts on the Thursday card. 6-JOYZELLA stretched back out to go two turns in her last as she chased and ran on late to hold place. She should be able to rate close once again as she could hang around for a share late.

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 3:06 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
2 I O Fedro - 4-1 3 My Brother Mike - 6-1 7 Lone Return - 7-2

First of three on the grass in a very evenly matched bunch. 2-I O FEDRO has been looking to get onto the grass as he has worked well toward the debut. He gets Lasix for this spot as I figure he should rate close and contend throughout. 3-MY BROTHER MIKE is going to need pace to chase as he should be running on late. He ran well at this level three back but is tough to look to on top with the 0 for 30 lifetime record. 7-LONE RETURN ran well in his last three on the grass, showing speed around two turns last out. He drops in for the tag in this spot as Slevinsky has given him good trips in his last three.

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 3:34 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
4 A Real Hero - 4-1 7 Lady Atlantic - 8-1 1 Miss Windy Slew - 3-1

A wildy contentious race as all of these are in the mix. The pace should be honest upfront, setting things up for the late close of 4-A REAL HERO. She was claimed out of her last and finds things a bit easier in this spot. Expect her to settle early and close with a rush. 7-LADY ATLANTIC is another that can close late as she was a winner at a massive price two back and ran a decent race in her last. She has run respectable races over the track and at the distance throughout her career as she figures to contend at a price once again. 1-MISS WINDY SLEW was a good winner last out, posting a strong figure with that effort. The question in here is if she is able to repeat that performance or bounces off of it.

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 4:30 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
4 Sapphire Nights - 12-1 3 Holy Image - 10-1 5 Lady Helena - 7-5

This is a really weird race! The outside three horses all take drastic drops, with two of the three coming out of turf races. They also all run for solid barns so it is tough to determine what the intent in. There's a chance too that they all run well, but I'm not sold on any of these moves. I'm looking to 4- SAPPHIRE NIGHTS as she has been on an every other race pattern and should be sitting on a good race today. She has tactical speed and should sit just off Lucy Jane in here. Let's see if she can wear that one down late at a price. 3-HOLY IMAGE has run well all meet as she figures to close into the mix late in here. Her last two have been good second place performances as she could sneak into the exacta once again. 5-LADY HELENA is one that I wonder about because she has run some good races recently but now switches surfaces and drops in class. Loveberry gets the call though as she will either win this race by a bunch or struggle over the main track.

Hawthorne Race 7

Post Time 4:58 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
4 Another Mystery - 9-5 1 Vote No - 5-1 5 Leading the Charge - 7-2

A quality bunch on the grass here with three different stakes winner in this spot. The most decorated is 4-ANOTHER MYSTERY as he comes off a game victory in the Buck's Boy over yielding going. He showed a lot of grit in that race as he had to work hard to catch the lone speed in that spot. The same could happen again today as the pace doesn't look to be overly quick upfront. 1-VOTE NO is another stakes winner as he won over the Kentucky Downs turf last September in his second career start. He ran a really good second in the Grade 2 Bourbon at Keeneland following that start and could sneak away at a bit of a price today. 5-LEADING THE CHARGE comes in from Indiana for this race as he tries the Hawthorne turf for the first time. He's won half of his 16 career starts and appeared to not miss a beat despite a long layoff in his last start.

Hawthorne Race 8

Post Time 5:26 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
5 Tiz a Country Girl - 6-5 7 Emityaaz - 7-2 9 Maiden Rock - 15-1

Trainer Wayne Catalano won his 3,000th race on Sunday at Ellis. If he hadn't won there, the 5-TIZ A COUNTRY GIRL would have been the likely winner for number 3,000. She has been on the grass in her last couple but her dirt race three back was solid as well. She drops to win in here as another live Loveberry mount. 7-EMITYAAZ has run well all meet as she has been knocking on the door. There's not a ton of pace in this race as she figures to rate close the entire way. Let's see if she can get the jump on the favorite and hold her off late. 9-MAIDEN ROCK has improved in her last three, running a good third in Minnesota in her last. While she may not be in the mix for the victory, there's a chance she can get into the mix underneath while at a price.

Hawthorne Race 9

Post Time 5:54 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
3 Mining Camp - 7-2 1 Alibi Ike - 3-1 4 Tallapoosa - 9-2

It took a while to drop to the winning spot for 3-MINING CAMP but once he did there was little doubt that he was going to break his maiden. He posted a solid figure in that spot as well. I like that he stays at the sprint distance in here. The question is if the jump back to $12,500 is going to be too much or not. 1-ALIBI IKE ran a good second in his last but now takes the drop for this race. It's a bit of a curious move considering the last race but at the same time he was claimed for only $7,500 and has won since the claim. 4-TALLAPOOSA was sharp in a maiden victory in his last as he stalked the pace and ran on late. The trip could be similar in here with a pair with speed to his inside. Let's see if he can repeat that last performance.