Handicapper Tips & Picks

Giving a look back to #5 STAR KANOO returning under similar conditions and subtle trip last month. Going back to 6/22 he had a look “second off” on the class drop and opened with early money as the favorite before drifting to 7/3-1 by post time. He created some of his own TROUBLE racing between horses with a late NO_LEAD change getting on track to finish together with the top three there at the wire. He has the back number from the TAM series that fits on par, early speed to keep #4 BREAKING NEWS honest up front and placed where he can compete.

His presence in this race with tactical can also assist stablemate #6 HOPPIN JOHN one that will make his second start off the claim wheeling back in two weeks after making a fast CLOSE to finish third against a higher allowance group and back under reasonable conditions in claiming company. Could also see #7 MOHAAFETH make his run from off the pace with the connections wheeling right back and cutting back in distance and claiming price in this second start back from the layoff. A. Murgia will be in to ride from Belterra Park – one of two mounts on the card for G. Dorochenko.

Looking at the Plot, there is not much between #1 RISKY BOY and #3 COUNTRY GUY giving the class edge of the two to COUNTRY GUY at this level and from some B- OptixGRADE efforts under similar conditions. He could also be overlooked of the two, longer on the boards without the “1” this meet and dismissed off the 7/7  common race on a day the WEATHER impacted the conditions and late change moving the races to the main track. 

#4 SAMARITA should find herself back to winning ways in today’s race and compact field. She ran a huge race off the bench at KEE to win and that effort put her “over the top” wheeling back in less than 30-day rest here in May and given time and trip rebounded with the win on 6/1. The connections rushed back to the races and taking nothing away from the CD effort on 6/21 when forced to RUSH and PRESSED from the rail through an honest pace with the show finish. Since then, she has been given the 37-day break and looking at the Plot she and O. Mojica should be able to work a trip with today’s race dynamic. 

Multiple upgrades in this spot for #8 JET FLIGHT to present a contender in this race. He will find some class relief from the higher claiming events this season and in those events he held his own. That includes the two recent starts: on 6/30 he broke SLOG/TROUBLE_S and with a near excuse with the NO_PUSH from off the pace; he is upgraded again from the 7/18 effort with the TACTIC- including ground loss/WIDE and a TROUBLE trip playing a role in the outcome and 4^th place result. With form and class checking the boxes, his figures from earlier this season stack up on par and looking at the Plot (pace) should work a trip in today’s race shape sitting in Quad II above the ParLine. The trip should allow him to get the jump on the Quad I pacesetters (#4 PALHACO a downgrade with the Red Keywords as the favorite to play against on top) and fellow QII/IV runners, #3 PERFUMER, #6 JIM AND JIM and #7 PLAIN OR PEANUT.

There were many signs #1 BANDIT SWANSON was given a PREP returning from the lengthy 459-day layoff last week. The placement on the turf as the intended surface along with the appearance of blinkers and on race day the front wraps – both could be removed here. While there is some concern with the drop to run for the claiming tag, a lot of that is buffered by the presence of O. Mojica taking over along with the quick turnaround right back to the races with conditioning.

Where BANDIT SWANSON is a Large Square on Standard (current form) #5 CODE RUNNER takes that role on the Surface/Distance PLOT. He was upgraded at this level and on the circuit switch three weeks ago and back under similar conditions could be looking for a similar result and holds the “B” edge over #3 STRONGER TOGETHER and #6 AHEADOFTHEGAME from that common race.

The distance change is the question mark for #2 TRY TRY AGAIN one that otherwise fits keying off the B OptixGRADE under similar conditions back on 6/9 return with the freshening here. #4 LOOKIN FOR REVENGE ran a slow race to win by open lengths in his most recent start. The slow figure and race is actually to his benefit here to cycle back to new top and compete though could find public attention with the open length win. He has the edge over #7 JEFF THE LION based on current form and the setup of today’s race dynamic going back to the Plot.

Tough to argue with the legitimacy of #6 OEUVRE in this spot as she fits on class, speed, form and a versatile runstyle (Plot) to work a trip in today’s race as the horse to beat. With that said, #2 LAURA’S CHARM will be the key as value in this race. She also brings in recency and sneaky form isolating the limited turf sprint starts in her career, races that fit on par consistently and appears this is her game. She moves into this race with confidence off the recent win (last summer finished in front of today’s rival #5 AMERICAN STARLET) and the timing suggests intent to run in this spot stepping up to stakes company and from the 35-day freshening while picking up a strong local rider in D. Cohen.

Intent could also follow #4 WIDE WEST showing up in her second start of the cycle cutting back to the preferred sprint distance and given a massive flow upgrade (VF early/late) out of the 6/22 Powder Break stakes last month around two turns over the GP synthetic track. The connections are looking for her to earn additional Black Type and bring in K. Coa to ride, their lone mount on the card.

#1 CADENCIA is very sharp right now and bas back number that stack up as some of the higher in this field. She has yet to “peak” number wise despite pairing wins in her recent races though does come into this event with improving figures in this third start back off the layoff. Intent should also be in play with the connections giving her experience over this course and distance along with J. Felix aboard for the recent dominant win and no stranger to this Hawthorne turf.

Of the runners that project to take attention, #9 DARING DO is the one I am willing to leave out. While capable, she does not hold any edge (speed, class, pace) in this field to justify shorter odds in addition, will give up recency off the two month break into this race. The outside post and shorter 5f distance create further hurdles that at the least require price compensation. 

The public will likely default to Rivelli and #1 WILLIE BIRD coming back from a place finish and top figure in his most start. While that figure is the highest earned in the field and flattered with King Anthony coming back to win in his next start, WILLIE BIRD had it his own way setting a Very Slow (VS) early and late pace and must be downgraded at a short number. There are others in here that have shown early speed and the rail draw paired with the most recent effort should see them pressured here.

The other Rivelli, #6 CLASSIC RICHIE could be upgraded as he makes his sophomore debut and room to improve off the juvenile figures. With that said, he has been off a long time and shows just one published work this year, not often the pattern for this barn. #8 C SUITE BOY has the opposite pattern with a ton of published works, creating some reservations on how long it has taken them to find a race. As a first time starter he is worth a look in the paddock something that carries to #3 MY LAST ESCAPADE – another debut runner; the IL-bred taking on open company.

#4 LA PERFECT BEE could race to his name landing in the perfect spot with recency, and a solid closing kick if there is some pace up front to come closing late. The timing and intent could also benefit #2 C V SHACKLES picking up E. Rodriguez. This lightly raced 4yo will find some changes shifting back to the main track and first sprint on conventional dirt. Both #5 CRUZIN N CURSIN and #7 GOOD YEGG return from the 7/7 common race, a race that held a higher par, though still overall a step up shifting to take on open company.

#6 NOBALS leads off the L. Rivelli trio and a reasonable spot to return in a seasonal debut. His class and speed figure edge are tough to deny and similar with intent as G. Corrales comes into ride. There is some potential for rain and could impact the turf conditions and might delay the return to the races if not satisfactory, though that would not leave Rivelli without a chance in this race.

#1 ONE TIMER has been able fire fresh and win off a similar long layoff (as well as his debut) in the past as less of a concern with that pattern here. He has shown versatility that could provide D. Cohen options taking over today. Cohen shifts here opening up the mount for A. Centeno aboard #3 FIT TO FLY one that does have the benefit of a start and upside given the EX – EXCUSE (unprepared in the GATE) in that return three weeks ago. FIT TO FLY is a more confirmed front runner with ONE TIMER given the rail draw could stalk just inside with first run taking the shortest way around the track.

#5 MISTER MMMMM returns to the turf and with recency on his side along with class and live local rider as J. Felix picks up the call. While he has back races that fit, the early Plot (pre-scratch) does not present any edge in this group and if looking for a closer to pick up the late chase, #7 MISCHIEVOUS ROGUE is that horse as a the Quad IV Square. 

The weather previously discussed could give #1 BOURBON TEDDY an upgrade over an off-track. He is often a “faster” horse keying off those WEATHER impacted races and recorded figures make him a contender in this race. In addition, his ability to show early speed as well as #8 UNCAPTURED PULSE at the shorter 5.5f distance of this race can give a subtle edge over the stalking runners returning from the 7/11 common race including #7 MAQAMAT.  

The presence of #6 TIGHTROPE in this race makes things interesting. His early speed should be dominant and the edge (Q1 Square) in that role. With that said, he is unlikely to find the LONE trip that has been the key for him in the past and even with “BOS” potential, the race could come apart late and set up a runner from just off the pace.

#10 LAND MARK DEAL has been looking for the right spot to compete and could find it here. He has form on the turf, though stamina has been a different hurdle with the recent races at the route distance. His turf sprint from last season at the higher $25-20k claiming level stack up above today’s par. #2 GRAND HIDEAWAY has some buried turf sprint form here at HAW and races that he could return to in this second start off the layoff. #7 THREEFIFTYSEVEN was scheduled to run under similar conditions and return to the turf in that 7/7 event. The WEATHER hit right before the race moving the event to the main track and they turned in a solid B- effort with a strong CLOSE and GALLOP+ after less than ideal handling early leaving them too much to do late. 

Trip will again be key for #4 BALI BABY though makes a rider change after the TACTIC- last out along with the distance change back to a sprint. She earned a follow with the BTL effort sprinting on 6/30, a competitive higher $25k claiming event making a WIDE MOVE and visuals to suggest she can IMPROVE all around.

The early pace should be honest with six of the nine in this field sharing the E/EP RunStyle (Fire) with an honest 23 SpeedRate as runner including #3 GET THE CANDY above the ParLine. She should be key honest here with the others in the field and will be tested to hold her form wheeling back in just one week from the common race with fellow pacesetter, #7 RAMBERT. The change in class could also find #2 GRAYTANA also in the early duel as shown on Standard especially as she returns upgraded from the X_FLOW on 7/6.

The change in surface and distance is positive for #8 SUMMER DAY and #9 APRIL’S GEM, two capable types though runners that have come up short without excuse and lack an edge on current form where some price compensation is required. 

KEEP THE RAIN AWAY!!!! This is a great Sunday card as we hope the rain stays away with the pair of turf stakes. We open with a good bunch as 6-HOPPIN JOHN was a big winner two back and ran a nice race on the rise last out. He should get some pace to chase as he figures to close with a rush. 4-BREAKING NEWS shouldn't be too far off the pace at any time as he has never finished worse than second in seven Hawthorne starts. The distance suits as Centeno has ridden him very well. 1-RISKY BOY has had a fine season as he also has some tactical speed. He may not have taken to the slop in his last as a fast track return will be welcome.

Only five but this is a great race as any of these can win. 1-TRIPLE SCOUT won the first edition of this race last month as she had to work to get up in time. She should get pace to chase again as she gets to a more preferred distance. 3-RACEDAY ATTIRE has some back class as she ran aa respectable against these last out as well. As this series extends in distance she could continue to make more and more of an impact. 4-SAMARITA has been great at Hawthorne as she's another that will likely be better the further this series stretches out. She has tactical speed and won with Mojica in the saddle two back.

Another very competitive race in here as there's some pace in here but could produce a bunched up field. 8-JET FLIGHT takes the class drop as he could be in a perfect stalking spot in here. He ran well with Santos in the saddle last out and could be a square price. 6-JIM AND JIM rated close in his last but there was little pace in that spot. His form as improved in recent starts as his race two back was better than looks on paper. 7-PLAIN OR PEANUT was a good winner in the mud four back and ran well last out. He's another that could sit a bit closer early in here as he finds a good spot today.

Really good to see an open $10k claimer fill as these are often very competitive races. This is for sure as 5-CODE RUNNER starts for the new connections. He stays at the same level that he won at last out as he looks to get a solid pace to chase once again. 6-AHEADOFTHEGAME figures to be one of the pacesetters in this spot as he battled on the lead last out and was able to hold place. If he can shake loose early in here he could potentially steal this one. 3-STRONGER TOGETHER was moved up to second in this event last out as he rallied late in the lane. He is a sleeper at a price.

The first of our $100k turf sprint stakes as a really strong bunch has come together. Off her last start, 3-RILEYS REDEMPTION could potentially upset in here. She is solid at the distance and has the potential to tuck in just behind a contested early pace. Let's see if she can rally late for the score. 6-OEUVRE is so talented as she is the horse to beat. She has to be given a look as she should also be running on late. Let's see if five furlongs is enough distance to get up in time. 4-WIDE WEST could be the sleeper as she turns back to the turf. This distance is her best as she has tactical speed. She schooled in the paddock prior to races on Thursday and merits a look at a price.

I don't think they can beat 1-WILLIE BIRD in this spot as he comes off a fine effort that out. That race was a big number as he ran second to a repeat winner in King Anthony in that spot. He will be on the gas from the rail and should make the top and never look back. 8-C SUITE BOY debuts for Morey as he has a nice pattern of drills coming into this spot. The outside draw could be beneficial as he may be able to rate in the second flight and run on late. 7-GOOD YEGG came off a very long layoff to run a really nice race last out. He does face open company in here but if he can improve just a bit off that performance he figures to get into the mix.

We will see if this is a smart move or not as I try to beat the Breeders Cup champ. 1-ONE TIMER is a very solid racehorse in his own right as he makes his 2024 debut. He has tactical speed should be able to get away from the inside and could run on late. 6-NOBALS is the BC champ as is all heart as he ran a huge race at Santa Anita to close out 2023. He loves the distance and figures to make the top in here. Let's see if he can beat his stablemate. 8-MARK OF THE Z has posted some big upsets in the past and merits a look in here. He will benefit if the pace is quick and contested upfront as he as found the board in 11 of 15 at this distance.

Have to think 7-MAQAMAT is positioned once again to win as he was strong off the layoff in his last. He figures to need some pace to chase but should find it. Look for him to repeat that last performance. 3-ALYANAABI has tactical speed as he has had a solid 2024 campaign. He has speed to his inside and if he can stalk he should get the jump on the late closers. 6-IDEA MAN rallied late for place in his last couple as he has been excellent at Hawthorne. He oftentimes provides value and let's see if he gets overlooked in here.

6-HOPPIN JOHN drops a few levels but considering he was claimed for $5k two races back, the drop shouldn’t be an issue. His recent speed figures suggest he’s the one to beat however, those big numbers are recent and most of his previous races have been far slower. 4-BREAKING NEWS has been in great form this year with three wins and three seconds from his seven races this year and he has never been worse than second in any of his Hawthorne starts. 7-MOHAAFETH is an interesting runner. He was claimed for $20k in his final start of 2023, where he finished third, and then finished up the track at a similar level in his only start this year. Now he’s dropping and turning back in distance. He finished second in a $100k stakes the last time he sprinted but that was back in 2022 when they were also running him in graded stakes. Not really sure what to do with him.

4-SAMARITA looks pretty tough. She’s been razor sharp in starters and allowance company this year and she reeled off six straight victories here last year. With the ability to rate or go right for the lead, she’s going to be hard to beat no matter what kind of pace develops. 1-TRIPLE SCOUT could be the only real competition. She’s another who has been red hot over the last couple years, including taking the first leg of this handicap series last time out. Altogether, she won nine of her last 15 starts. Like top choice, she’s been good on or off the lead but she does seem to be a little slower than that rival. 5-FIRST KITTEN has been racing against some good rivals lately. None of them would have qualified for this race so she is meeting somewhat easier. Could be an upset possibility. 

Not sure how long he’ll keep it but 5-I’M YOUR CAPTAIN, with the stretch out to a route, should grab a relatively unchallenged lead. 8-JET FLIGHT figures prominently with the drop. Even runner will close if he gets enough pace ahead of him. Facing his easiest field ever certainly helps. 4-PALHACO is in better form than the rest. Winner of last also finished in the money in his previous two starts. Can make it two in a row. 

5-CODE RUNNER took advantage of a perfect trip in last to win going away. He got claimed from that effort by a barn that wins with a lofty 39% of their first-time claims. His new rider is winning at a 25% clip for the meet. Seems likely to win right back. 1-BANDIT SWANSON is the stablemate of top choice. He was absolutely trounced in last. However, he was in against better, he was making his first start since April of 2023. He had been working bullets going into that race and now, today he’s dropping to his lowest level ever while getting the top rider. Racetrack “wisdom” says bet the longer-priced runner of an uncoupled entry. Not recommending you do that but certainly worth watching. 4-LOOKIN FOR REVENGE rides a two-race win streak. His speed figures lag behind those of many of his rivals but hard to argue with success.

Wow! Tough race. Could have gone so many ways but wound up with 3-RILEY’S REDEMPTION. She’s relatively inexperienced on turf with only three races but she did win two of them, at this distance, by daylight. Don’t think she’s the quickest member of this field but she’s certainly quick enough to possibly fight for the lead or lay right off the early pace. Starting highweight and morning-line favorite 6-OEUVRE always figures. She’s not only the top earner in the field but she also won more on turf than any of her rivals. She had to try to overcome the 130 pound impost she was forced to carry in last with no success but the 125 she’ll carry today is more in her wheelhouse. However, she hasn’t won or ever run in a race that was less than five and a half furlongs and her previous races without Lasix were some of the worst efforts of her career. 7-FACCIA BELLA could pull off the upset. She’s didn’t have a lot of luck routing but she has turned out to be a sharp turf sprinter. The blistering pace of this race could set up for a closer and she fits that description perfectly.

 1-WILLIE BIRD showed little on turf in his career debut but was far more effective when moved to dirt for last. he led for most of the race. He got passed late but that winner came right back to win again. Willie looks like the best speed. Will have to be caught. 8-C SUITE BOY ships in to take on maidens. His works give little hint but his barn wins with 23% of their first timers. 7-GOOD YEGG just made his first start in nearly three years and it was far better than expected. He'll be meeting open company today but he did run faster in last than most of his rivals in here have ever accomplished.

Another tough turf stakes. Obviously, the one to beat is 6-NOBALS. He would be making his first start of the year but his last race was a winning effort in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint. He's been great on or off the lead. But, he is cross entered in a race at Saratoga. Guess we'll see where he goes. 1-ONE TIMER, from the same barn as top choice, will also be making his first start of the year. Like top choice he's capable of running well on or off the pace. He just missed in a Grade 2 turf stakes at Kentucky Downs in his final start of 2023. Either of these runners will be hard to beat. 7-MISCHIEVOUS ROGUE will be flying late. He's relatively lightly raced on turf but he did have two wins and two seconds in his four grassy attempts.

7-MAQUMAT won the last two times he faced rivals similar to these. He wired the field in one of those races but came from out of it in last. 3-ALYANAABI never won here but he's been running well lately. He was a daylight winner in his last at Fanduel, carrying 126 pounds. With only a 122 impost today, he could be just as effective here. 6-IDEA MAN just finished second to top choice and he also finished second, narrowly beaten, in his previous race. The pace should set up well for his closing move. Could make a race of it.

6-TIGHTROPE has to be caught. He dominated in wire to wire fashion in his last two turf races. He won his last at this level by nine. Can do it again. 1-INFINITE drops in class and turns back in distance. He tired in last, his first start since April of 2023. but think that race was just a tightener off the long layoff. He's been far more effective as a turf sprinter. When this barn ships something here, you have to pay attention. 9-DRAGON DREW is often ignored but he does have a better turf record than most of his rivals in here. He finished in the money in last two. Doubt if he can beat top choice but he could run well enough to fill out vertical gimmicks.

3-GET THE CANDY got passed late in last two but she was still able to hold on for second. She might have to fight for the lead again but might be able to put her early challengers away. 2-GRAYTANA tired in her turf debut but she was meeting a tougher group of runners and she was making her debut for this barn. Takes a realistic drop. Should be among the early leads and could hang on. 5-ADIVA would be trying turf for the first time but there is rain in the forecast and her best hope could be if this race got moved to dirt. She won two of her four off-track races and would expect her chances to improve dramatically on the main track, especially with the class drop.