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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sun July 28th, 2024

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Jim's Picks

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 2:10 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
6 Hoppin John - 2/1 4 Breaking News - 3/1 1 Risky Boy - 10/1

KEEP THE RAIN AWAY!!!! This is a great Sunday card as we hope the rain stays away with the pair of turf stakes. We open with a good bunch as 6-HOPPIN JOHN was a big winner two back and ran a nice race on the rise last out. He should get some pace to chase as he figures to close with a rush. 4-BREAKING NEWS shouldn't be too far off the pace at any time as he has never finished worse than second in seven Hawthorne starts. The distance suits as Centeno has ridden him very well. 1-RISKY BOY has had a fine season as he also has some tactical speed. He may not have taken to the slop in his last as a fast track return will be welcome.

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 2:38 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
1 Triple Scout - 5/2 3 Raceday Attire - 6/1 4 Samarita - 8/5

Only five but this is a great race as any of these can win. 1-TRIPLE SCOUT won the first edition of this race last month as she had to work to get up in time. She should get pace to chase again as she gets to a more preferred distance. 3-RACEDAY ATTIRE has some back class as she ran aa respectable against these last out as well. As this series extends in distance she could continue to make more and more of an impact. 4-SAMARITA has been great at Hawthorne as she's another that will likely be better the further this series stretches out. She has tactical speed and won with Mojica in the saddle two back.

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 3:06 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
8 Jet Flight - 9/2 6 Jim and Jim - 4/1 7 Plain Or Peanut - 7/2

Another very competitive race in here as there's some pace in here but could produce a bunched up field. 8-JET FLIGHT takes the class drop as he could be in a perfect stalking spot in here. He ran well with Santos in the saddle last out and could be a square price. 6-JIM AND JIM rated close in his last but there was little pace in that spot. His form as improved in recent starts as his race two back was better than looks on paper. 7-PLAIN OR PEANUT was a good winner in the mud four back and ran well last out. He's another that could sit a bit closer early in here as he finds a good spot today.

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 3:34 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
5 Code Runner - 9/5 6 Aheadofthegame - 3/1 3 Stronger Together - 8/1

Really good to see an open $10k claimer fill as these are often very competitive races. This is for sure as 5-CODE RUNNER starts for the new connections. He stays at the same level that he won at last out as he looks to get a solid pace to chase once again. 6-AHEADOFTHEGAME figures to be one of the pacesetters in this spot as he battled on the lead last out and was able to hold place. If he can shake loose early in here he could potentially steal this one. 3-STRONGER TOGETHER was moved up to second in this event last out as he rallied late in the lane. He is a sleeper at a price.

Hawthorne Race 5

Post Time 4:02 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
3 Rileys Redemption - 7/2 6 Oeuvre - 5/2 4 Wide West [IRE] - 10/1

The first of our $100k turf sprint stakes as a really strong bunch has come together. Off her last start, 3-RILEYS REDEMPTION could potentially upset in here. She is solid at the distance and has the potential to tuck in just behind a contested early pace. Let's see if she can rally late for the score. 6-OEUVRE is so talented as she is the horse to beat. She has to be given a look as she should also be running on late. Let's see if five furlongs is enough distance to get up in time. 4-WIDE WEST could be the sleeper as she turns back to the turf. This distance is her best as she has tactical speed. She schooled in the paddock prior to races on Thursday and merits a look at a price.

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 4:30 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
1 Willie Bird - 7/5 8 C Suite Boy - 3/1 7 Good Yegg - 5/1

I don't think they can beat 1-WILLIE BIRD in this spot as he comes off a fine effort that out. That race was a big number as he ran second to a repeat winner in King Anthony in that spot. He will be on the gas from the rail and should make the top and never look back. 8-C SUITE BOY debuts for Morey as he has a nice pattern of drills coming into this spot. The outside draw could be beneficial as he may be able to rate in the second flight and run on late. 7-GOOD YEGG came off a very long layoff to run a really nice race last out. He does face open company in here but if he can improve just a bit off that performance he figures to get into the mix.

Hawthorne Race 7

Post Time 4:58 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
1 One Timer - 5/2 6 Nobals - 9/5 8 Mark of the Z - 8/1

We will see if this is a smart move or not as I try to beat the Breeders Cup champ. 1-ONE TIMER is a very solid racehorse in his own right as he makes his 2024 debut. He has tactical speed should be able to get away from the inside and could run on late. 6-NOBALS is the BC champ as is all heart as he ran a huge race at Santa Anita to close out 2023. He loves the distance and figures to make the top in here. Let's see if he can beat his stablemate. 8-MARK OF THE Z has posted some big upsets in the past and merits a look in here. He will benefit if the pace is quick and contested upfront as he as found the board in 11 of 15 at this distance.

Hawthorne Race 8

Post Time 5:26 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
7 Maqamat - 7/5 3 Alyanaabi - 9/2 6 Idea Man - 4/1

Have to think 7-MAQAMAT is positioned once again to win as he was strong off the layoff in his last. He figures to need some pace to chase but should find it. Look for him to repeat that last performance. 3-ALYANAABI has tactical speed as he has had a solid 2024 campaign. He has speed to his inside and if he can stalk he should get the jump on the late closers. 6-IDEA MAN rallied late for place in his last couple as he has been excellent at Hawthorne. He oftentimes provides value and let's see if he gets overlooked in here.