Handicapper Tips & Picks

Giving a look back to #5 STAR KANOO returning under similar conditions and subtle trip last month. Going back to 6/22 he had a look “second off” on the class drop and opened with early money as the favorite before drifting to 7/3-1 by post time. He created some of his own TROUBLE racing between horses with a late NO_LEAD change getting on track to finish together with the top three there at the wire. He has the back number from the TAM series that fits on par, early speed to keep #4 BREAKING NEWS honest up front and placed where he can compete.

His presence in this race with tactical can also assist stablemate #6 HOPPIN JOHN one that will make his second start off the claim wheeling back in two weeks after making a fast CLOSE to finish third against a higher allowance group and back under reasonable conditions in claiming company. Could also see #7 MOHAAFETH make his run from off the pace with the connections wheeling right back and cutting back in distance and claiming price in this second start back from the layoff. A. Murgia will be in to ride from Belterra Park – one of two mounts on the card for G. Dorochenko.

Looking at the Plot, there is not much between #1 RISKY BOY and #3 COUNTRY GUY giving the class edge of the two to COUNTRY GUY at this level and from some B- OptixGRADE efforts under similar conditions. He could also be overlooked of the two, longer on the boards without the “1” this meet and dismissed off the 7/7  common race on a day the WEATHER impacted the conditions and late change moving the races to the main track. 

#4 SAMARITA should find herself back to winning ways in today’s race and compact field. She ran a huge race off the bench at KEE to win and that effort put her “over the top” wheeling back in less than 30-day rest here in May and given time and trip rebounded with the win on 6/1. The connections rushed back to the races and taking nothing away from the CD effort on 6/21 when forced to RUSH and PRESSED from the rail through an honest pace with the show finish. Since then, she has been given the 37-day break and looking at the Plot she and O. Mojica should be able to work a trip with today’s race dynamic. 

Multiple upgrades in this spot for #8 JET FLIGHT to present a contender in this race. He will find some class relief from the higher claiming events this season and in those events he held his own. That includes the two recent starts: on 6/30 he broke SLOG/TROUBLE_S and with a near excuse with the NO_PUSH from off the pace; he is upgraded again from the 7/18 effort with the TACTIC- including ground loss/WIDE and a TROUBLE trip playing a role in the outcome and 4^th place result. With form and class checking the boxes, his figures from earlier this season stack up on par and looking at the Plot (pace) should work a trip in today’s race shape sitting in Quad II above the ParLine. The trip should allow him to get the jump on the Quad I pacesetters (#4 PALHACO a downgrade with the Red Keywords as the favorite to play against on top) and fellow QII/IV runners, #3 PERFUMER, #6 JIM AND JIM and #7 PLAIN OR PEANUT.

There were many signs #1 BANDIT SWANSON was given a PREP returning from the lengthy 459-day layoff last week. The placement on the turf as the intended surface along with the appearance of blinkers and on race day the front wraps – both could be removed here. While there is some concern with the drop to run for the claiming tag, a lot of that is buffered by the presence of O. Mojica taking over along with the quick turnaround right back to the races with conditioning.

Where BANDIT SWANSON is a Large Square on Standard (current form) #5 CODE RUNNER takes that role on the Surface/Distance PLOT. He was upgraded at this level and on the circuit switch three weeks ago and back under similar conditions could be looking for a similar result and holds the “B” edge over #3 STRONGER TOGETHER and #6 AHEADOFTHEGAME from that common race.

The distance change is the question mark for #2 TRY TRY AGAIN one that otherwise fits keying off the B OptixGRADE under similar conditions back on 6/9 return with the freshening here. #4 LOOKIN FOR REVENGE ran a slow race to win by open lengths in his most recent start. The slow figure and race is actually to his benefit here to cycle back to new top and compete though could find public attention with the open length win. He has the edge over #7 JEFF THE LION based on current form and the setup of today’s race dynamic going back to the Plot.

Tough to argue with the legitimacy of #6 OEUVRE in this spot as she fits on class, speed, form and a versatile runstyle (Plot) to work a trip in today’s race as the horse to beat. With that said, #2 LAURA’S CHARM will be the key as value in this race. She also brings in recency and sneaky form isolating the limited turf sprint starts in her career, races that fit on par consistently and appears this is her game. She moves into this race with confidence off the recent win (last summer finished in front of today’s rival #5 AMERICAN STARLET) and the timing suggests intent to run in this spot stepping up to stakes company and from the 35-day freshening while picking up a strong local rider in D. Cohen.

Intent could also follow #4 WIDE WEST showing up in her second start of the cycle cutting back to the preferred sprint distance and given a massive flow upgrade (VF early/late) out of the 6/22 Powder Break stakes last month around two turns over the GP synthetic track. The connections are looking for her to earn additional Black Type and bring in K. Coa to ride, their lone mount on the card.

#1 CADENCIA is very sharp right now and bas back number that stack up as some of the higher in this field. She has yet to “peak” number wise despite pairing wins in her recent races though does come into this event with improving figures in this third start back off the layoff. Intent should also be in play with the connections giving her experience over this course and distance along with J. Felix aboard for the recent dominant win and no stranger to this Hawthorne turf.

Of the runners that project to take attention, #9 DARING DO is the one I am willing to leave out. While capable, she does not hold any edge (speed, class, pace) in this field to justify shorter odds in addition, will give up recency off the two month break into this race. The outside post and shorter 5f distance create further hurdles that at the least require price compensation. 

The public will likely default to Rivelli and #1 WILLIE BIRD coming back from a place finish and top figure in his most start. While that figure is the highest earned in the field and flattered with King Anthony coming back to win in his next start, WILLIE BIRD had it his own way setting a Very Slow (VS) early and late pace and must be downgraded at a short number. There are others in here that have shown early speed and the rail draw paired with the most recent effort should see them pressured here.

The other Rivelli, #6 CLASSIC RICHIE could be upgraded as he makes his sophomore debut and room to improve off the juvenile figures. With that said, he has been off a long time and shows just one published work this year, not often the pattern for this barn. #8 C SUITE BOY has the opposite pattern with a ton of published works, creating some reservations on how long it has taken them to find a race. As a first time starter he is worth a look in the paddock something that carries to #3 MY LAST ESCAPADE – another debut runner; the IL-bred taking on open company.

#4 LA PERFECT BEE could race to his name landing in the perfect spot with recency, and a solid closing kick if there is some pace up front to come closing late. The timing and intent could also benefit #2 C V SHACKLES picking up E. Rodriguez. This lightly raced 4yo will find some changes shifting back to the main track and first sprint on conventional dirt. Both #5 CRUZIN N CURSIN and #7 GOOD YEGG return from the 7/7 common race, a race that held a higher par, though still overall a step up shifting to take on open company.

#6 NOBALS leads off the L. Rivelli trio and a reasonable spot to return in a seasonal debut. His class and speed figure edge are tough to deny and similar with intent as G. Corrales comes into ride. There is some potential for rain and could impact the turf conditions and might delay the return to the races if not satisfactory, though that would not leave Rivelli without a chance in this race.

#1 ONE TIMER has been able fire fresh and win off a similar long layoff (as well as his debut) in the past as less of a concern with that pattern here. He has shown versatility that could provide D. Cohen options taking over today. Cohen shifts here opening up the mount for A. Centeno aboard #3 FIT TO FLY one that does have the benefit of a start and upside given the EX – EXCUSE (unprepared in the GATE) in that return three weeks ago. FIT TO FLY is a more confirmed front runner with ONE TIMER given the rail draw could stalk just inside with first run taking the shortest way around the track.

#5 MISTER MMMMM returns to the turf and with recency on his side along with class and live local rider as J. Felix picks up the call. While he has back races that fit, the early Plot (pre-scratch) does not present any edge in this group and if looking for a closer to pick up the late chase, #7 MISCHIEVOUS ROGUE is that horse as a the Quad IV Square. 

The weather previously discussed could give #1 BOURBON TEDDY an upgrade over an off-track. He is often a “faster” horse keying off those WEATHER impacted races and recorded figures make him a contender in this race. In addition, his ability to show early speed as well as #8 UNCAPTURED PULSE at the shorter 5.5f distance of this race can give a subtle edge over the stalking runners returning from the 7/11 common race including #7 MAQAMAT.  

The presence of #6 TIGHTROPE in this race makes things interesting. His early speed should be dominant and the edge (Q1 Square) in that role. With that said, he is unlikely to find the LONE trip that has been the key for him in the past and even with “BOS” potential, the race could come apart late and set up a runner from just off the pace.

#10 LAND MARK DEAL has been looking for the right spot to compete and could find it here. He has form on the turf, though stamina has been a different hurdle with the recent races at the route distance. His turf sprint from last season at the higher $25-20k claiming level stack up above today’s par. #2 GRAND HIDEAWAY has some buried turf sprint form here at HAW and races that he could return to in this second start off the layoff. #7 THREEFIFTYSEVEN was scheduled to run under similar conditions and return to the turf in that 7/7 event. The WEATHER hit right before the race moving the event to the main track and they turned in a solid B- effort with a strong CLOSE and GALLOP+ after less than ideal handling early leaving them too much to do late. 

Trip will again be key for #4 BALI BABY though makes a rider change after the TACTIC- last out along with the distance change back to a sprint. She earned a follow with the BTL effort sprinting on 6/30, a competitive higher $25k claiming event making a WIDE MOVE and visuals to suggest she can IMPROVE all around.

The early pace should be honest with six of the nine in this field sharing the E/EP RunStyle (Fire) with an honest 23 SpeedRate as runner including #3 GET THE CANDY above the ParLine. She should be key honest here with the others in the field and will be tested to hold her form wheeling back in just one week from the common race with fellow pacesetter, #7 RAMBERT. The change in class could also find #2 GRAYTANA also in the early duel as shown on Standard especially as she returns upgraded from the X_FLOW on 7/6.

The change in surface and distance is positive for #8 SUMMER DAY and #9 APRIL’S GEM, two capable types though runners that have come up short without excuse and lack an edge on current form where some price compensation is required.