Handicapper Tips & Picks

6-HOPPIN JOHN drops a few levels but considering he was claimed for $5k two races back, the drop shouldn’t be an issue. His recent speed figures suggest he’s the one to beat however, those big numbers are recent and most of his previous races have been far slower. 4-BREAKING NEWS has been in great form this year with three wins and three seconds from his seven races this year and he has never been worse than second in any of his Hawthorne starts. 7-MOHAAFETH is an interesting runner. He was claimed for $20k in his final start of 2023, where he finished third, and then finished up the track at a similar level in his only start this year. Now he’s dropping and turning back in distance. He finished second in a $100k stakes the last time he sprinted but that was back in 2022 when they were also running him in graded stakes. Not really sure what to do with him.

4-SAMARITA looks pretty tough. She’s been razor sharp in starters and allowance company this year and she reeled off six straight victories here last year. With the ability to rate or go right for the lead, she’s going to be hard to beat no matter what kind of pace develops. 1-TRIPLE SCOUT could be the only real competition. She’s another who has been red hot over the last couple years, including taking the first leg of this handicap series last time out. Altogether, she won nine of her last 15 starts. Like top choice, she’s been good on or off the lead but she does seem to be a little slower than that rival. 5-FIRST KITTEN has been racing against some good rivals lately. None of them would have qualified for this race so she is meeting somewhat easier. Could be an upset possibility. 

Not sure how long he’ll keep it but 5-I’M YOUR CAPTAIN, with the stretch out to a route, should grab a relatively unchallenged lead. 8-JET FLIGHT figures prominently with the drop. Even runner will close if he gets enough pace ahead of him. Facing his easiest field ever certainly helps. 4-PALHACO is in better form than the rest. Winner of last also finished in the money in his previous two starts. Can make it two in a row. 

5-CODE RUNNER took advantage of a perfect trip in last to win going away. He got claimed from that effort by a barn that wins with a lofty 39% of their first-time claims. His new rider is winning at a 25% clip for the meet. Seems likely to win right back. 1-BANDIT SWANSON is the stablemate of top choice. He was absolutely trounced in last. However, he was in against better, he was making his first start since April of 2023. He had been working bullets going into that race and now, today he’s dropping to his lowest level ever while getting the top rider. Racetrack “wisdom” says bet the longer-priced runner of an uncoupled entry. Not recommending you do that but certainly worth watching. 4-LOOKIN FOR REVENGE rides a two-race win streak. His speed figures lag behind those of many of his rivals but hard to argue with success.

Wow! Tough race. Could have gone so many ways but wound up with 3-RILEY’S REDEMPTION. She’s relatively inexperienced on turf with only three races but she did win two of them, at this distance, by daylight. Don’t think she’s the quickest member of this field but she’s certainly quick enough to possibly fight for the lead or lay right off the early pace. Starting highweight and morning-line favorite 6-OEUVRE always figures. She’s not only the top earner in the field but she also won more on turf than any of her rivals. She had to try to overcome the 130 pound impost she was forced to carry in last with no success but the 125 she’ll carry today is more in her wheelhouse. However, she hasn’t won or ever run in a race that was less than five and a half furlongs and her previous races without Lasix were some of the worst efforts of her career. 7-FACCIA BELLA could pull off the upset. She’s didn’t have a lot of luck routing but she has turned out to be a sharp turf sprinter. The blistering pace of this race could set up for a closer and she fits that description perfectly.

 1-WILLIE BIRD showed little on turf in his career debut but was far more effective when moved to dirt for last. he led for most of the race. He got passed late but that winner came right back to win again. Willie looks like the best speed. Will have to be caught. 8-C SUITE BOY ships in to take on maidens. His works give little hint but his barn wins with 23% of their first timers. 7-GOOD YEGG just made his first start in nearly three years and it was far better than expected. He'll be meeting open company today but he did run faster in last than most of his rivals in here have ever accomplished.

Another tough turf stakes. Obviously, the one to beat is 6-NOBALS. He would be making his first start of the year but his last race was a winning effort in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint. He's been great on or off the lead. But, he is cross entered in a race at Saratoga. Guess we'll see where he goes. 1-ONE TIMER, from the same barn as top choice, will also be making his first start of the year. Like top choice he's capable of running well on or off the pace. He just missed in a Grade 2 turf stakes at Kentucky Downs in his final start of 2023. Either of these runners will be hard to beat. 7-MISCHIEVOUS ROGUE will be flying late. He's relatively lightly raced on turf but he did have two wins and two seconds in his four grassy attempts.

7-MAQUMAT won the last two times he faced rivals similar to these. He wired the field in one of those races but came from out of it in last. 3-ALYANAABI never won here but he's been running well lately. He was a daylight winner in his last at Fanduel, carrying 126 pounds. With only a 122 impost today, he could be just as effective here. 6-IDEA MAN just finished second to top choice and he also finished second, narrowly beaten, in his previous race. The pace should set up well for his closing move. Could make a race of it.

6-TIGHTROPE has to be caught. He dominated in wire to wire fashion in his last two turf races. He won his last at this level by nine. Can do it again. 1-INFINITE drops in class and turns back in distance. He tired in last, his first start since April of 2023. but think that race was just a tightener off the long layoff. He's been far more effective as a turf sprinter. When this barn ships something here, you have to pay attention. 9-DRAGON DREW is often ignored but he does have a better turf record than most of his rivals in here. He finished in the money in last two. Doubt if he can beat top choice but he could run well enough to fill out vertical gimmicks.

3-GET THE CANDY got passed late in last two but she was still able to hold on for second. She might have to fight for the lead again but might be able to put her early challengers away. 2-GRAYTANA tired in her turf debut but she was meeting a tougher group of runners and she was making her debut for this barn. Takes a realistic drop. Should be among the early leads and could hang on. 5-ADIVA would be trying turf for the first time but there is rain in the forecast and her best hope could be if this race got moved to dirt. She won two of her four off-track races and would expect her chances to improve dramatically on the main track, especially with the class drop.