Handicapper Tips & Picks

#5 SMOOTH JUSTICE fits this conditions looking for the first won this year. She appears well placed and subtle change in class returning to Hawthorne after a pair of competitive efforts in the recent HS Indy starts.

#2 JOCELYN is worth another look making her second start off the claim and following an EX – EXCUSE for J. Campbell back on 7/7 when unprepared at the start, TROUBLES+. Her ability to show early speed and drawn inside could present an asset in this field.

#3 MUSAD could move up naturally off her form/figures to land in the right spot to compete. Class wise this is a drop for her racing at the lowest of her career in for the $5k tag though the move could also come with reservations off a look effort back on 5/30 and the two month break. 

Looking at the Plot, the lower SpeedRate should assist runners with tactical speed – the scenario with #3 BLURT and #3 KHOZAN’S SUCCESS dueling (first call) early on should set up an ideal trip for #6 UNIFIED WEEKEND to sit off that pair and look for first run on the others. UNIFIED WEEKEND returns from the 39-day freshening and likely the right move with the added recovery as he had to work HARD to win back on 6/23. 

With the early weather reports looking at the high potential for this race to come off the turf and run on the main track. Many of the horses in this field have dirt form and versatility to keep the field as-is on race day. That should also keep the projected early pace contentious with four of the eight runners listed with the E RunStyle, with a few stretching out from sprint races. The scenario today should suit #5 LAWMAKER one that was asked to RUSH on 7/11 with the lack of pace (VS Early and Late) and should not be forced to make that trip here. He can sit and make a run, his preferred trip and comes into this race with better form than what might appear “on paper” with the recent running lines and finishing positions. #6 HAY MOON popped with a big race last out and not out of their capabilities to compete right back and moves up with some price compensation. 

#7 ELIZA VANCE leads the off the L. Rivelli pair holding experience as she makes her second career start. She was no match for the well-prepared M. Campbell debut runner, Dancing Magic on 6/23, though should benefit from the experience and slight addition (STRETCH) of ground. She should be fit off the initial start and works since including the strong 5f move in :58.4 looking to validate herself and the public going off favored on debut and likely to take up the same role here.

J. Campbell appears live with #1 SHE STOPPED SHORT for her debut with a strong series of works and pair of “bullet” moves in the series including the half mile from the gate one week ago. She worked 10.2 at the sale and was efficient and willing in the drill back in May and not surprised to see her show up here with those recent moves to translate to a solid showing first out. #5 BELLA VITTORIA also shows up with the series of bullet moves, though not one I have seen to match visuals to times, though will get a look at her on race day as well as the wagering action.

#4 LITTLE POISON  was entered back on 7/11 and names with J. Loveberry as their one mount on the card, should she have run that day. She appears no worse for the wear with similar jockey/trainer intention along with the work four days late, out of the gate half mile move in 47.2 though she will be taking on open company. #3 LYLAH RENEE also will meet open company and while she has plenty of foundation with her works, nothing overly jumps out of the published series. 

Looking at the Plot, the Sun Contention paired with the 58 SpeedRate should allow for a scenario to “stalk-and-pounce” and might make things tougher on #3 WILMA MANKILLER returning here with early speed and likely to take pace pressure from others in this field. She was very good here last season, though did not find races with the higher SpeedRate that is in play today and when she did it (like 6/29) it played a role in the outcome.

The Plot is showing  #2 HYPERSPORT as part of that Quad I group and as a Large Circle, though that position is impacted by the races this season, races she can be upgraded from. That includes the BTL effort with the place finish on 6/29 when taken out of her runstyle after stumbling at the start, TROUBLE_S. She has races that stand up on par and consistent figures to get back in the winners circle here.

The number on #1 FLAMMAND should be high enough again today to get creative with. She is tough to make the case for off the two starts this season, though did appear she required the race off the bench at CD and timing (and upgrade race flow) might have played against her on the quick turnaround for the 6/29 common race. She has some stakes experience and can pop with a big number from time to time and her top effort has her a player here. 

#3 TWO COOKIE RULE was sitting on a big race and ran to it earlier this month and while they receive a look right back the number projects to be much shorter here. Heading into the 7/17 race TWO COOKIE RULE moved up with fitness off the layoff and caught the eye making a CLOSE and GALLOP+ on 7/11 that transferred to a game (B) place finish last out. He returns under similar conditions first off the claim, picks up J. Loveberry and should find a stalking trip behind the inside two, #1 FLYING SAMURAI and #2 BOURBON DELIGHT, the projected pacesetters.

#6 MISTER CHARMING has been knocking on the door and a contender in this spot. He jumped up with a big race off the bench in the first part of the meet a few “excuses” in May and has been back on track as of late and might present the value here with the recent 4^th place result.

The DiZeo barn will also be represented by #7 WILDWOOD WARRIOR one that has held form especially as of late with the improved figures and minor finishes. Trip from the outside could also see them use early for position and find the stalking trip just to the outside of their recently acquired stablemate, TWO COOKIE RULE.

The early weather reports suggest the high likelihood off this race to come off the turf, a scenario that sets up for the two MTO runners, #9 CANTSTEALMYTHUNDER and #10 COOL QUARTET. Those two will move up naturally and also find public attention on the surface switch and should create some value on #7 POLICY OPTION should they opt to stay in. They stayed in last month coming off the layoff and upgraded from the TROUBLE trip with adversity at the start (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) and showed more run making a MOVE than the running line and finishing position suggests. In addition, the race appeared a PREP off the bench and has back numbers on any surface that fits on par. 

#3 NAVY SEAL should find a favorable stalking trip and presents fair odds at the ML assignment. That number could hold in here despite some recent minor finishes and figures on par that can win this race keying off the pair of Oaklawn starts earlier this while sprinting. He returns with a freshening and with J. Loveberry, his win rider over this course from back in 2022.

Like NAVY SEAL the early pace in the race and should set up the right trip for #7 RICHIESONAROLL to stalk and pounce and compete here. While he has just the lone win on the year back in April, his form has been consistent throughout and upgraded with the 40-day freshening since the 6/22 event under similar conditions making a WIDE MOVE with a slightly higher race par.

As far as the early speed, #5 FIT TO FLY could present the controlling speed in this race and intent after scratching from the stakes last Sunday and in their second start off the layoff. Improvement can be projected from the 7/7 return, given a legit EX – EXCUSE as they were unprepared at the start (GATE) stumbled (TROUBLE_S) and made a RUSH before losing (NO_KEEP) ground. 

This race could take some additional handicapping after the scratches to assess this race from the runners in the field and pace scenario. As far as class (and some versatility) #2 BOLTORO is less “proven” on the dirt though fits on class and form with some confidence coming off the maiden win. She turned in a place finish on this main track back in April, though did not earn a strong figure, though the off track certainly could have impacted that number. #6 VISIONISTA could be overlooked off the recent races and moves up with the freshening. She returns with intent back at the N1 allowance level and fits on her best day in this group and par. 

3-MUSED (GB) scratched out of the Sunday opener for this spot and that looks to be a good move as the horse is a solid threat here. She got away poorly in her last and never got going in that spot. The race two back was solid as she rated close and ran on late. Expect a good tracking trip in here. 5-SMOOTH JUSTICE is another coming in from Indiana that is worth a look. She battled the entire way last out and never gave in. Let's see how much action she takes in here. 4-KITTEN ROCKS will need some pace to chase as she figures to close late. He last was the first off a lengthy layoff as she has every right to improve in this spot.

A shorter field but a chance for chaos as there is some pace in this race and the field from top to bottom can all compete. Coming off a good win last out while at a price, 5-DIAMOND DAVE could repeat in here. He got away a step slow in that race and still rallied late. With a clean break and a possible contested pace upfront, he should be rolling in the lane. 3-KHOZAN'S SUCCESS found himself on the lead in a slow race last out and battled to a victory. He's going to take action in here but I'm not sure if he can beat Blurt to the top in this spot. That may be ok though if he chooses to track instead of duel. 2-NOT VERY GENTLE is going to hope for the duel as he looks to close late. He was really good last year and looks to get back to that form. He's just been consistent this season but with the right pace ahead of him he should come closing late.

This looks to be a solid bunch of juveniles as numerous runners look to get into the mix. 5-BELLA VITTORIA has been working up a storm as she continues to post bullet drills coming into here. She schooled in the paddock on Sunday as the connections are doing everything right to get her ready for her debut. 6-NOTIPTONI has a race under her belt as she battled on the lead and never gave in during her debut. She figures to be quick away once again and could get overlooked based upon some of the other connections in here. 4-LITTLE POISON has been working well toward her debut as well. Rivelli has been dominant with two-year-olds this meet as early speed is likely to be expected from this one as well.

A very good bunch here as I would think 3-WILMA MANKILLER improves off her last out. She ran a decent race in that spot but was coming off a lengthy layoff. She has the potential to make the lead in here and possibly never look back. 5-FIRST HILL was the winner at this level in her last as she stalked the pace and ran on late. She's won four in a row going into here as she races for the new connections today. 2-HYPERSPORT was a solid second at this level in her last as she stalked and rallied late. She looks to get a very similar trip in here as she may be worth a look underneath with seven runner-up efforts from 11 starts at three quarters.

The stretch back out in distance looked to help 3-TWO COOKIE RULE in his last as he stalked the pace and was able to run on for place. With some more speed ahead of him in here and Loveberry in the saddle, he should be able to bide him time and look to close in the lane. 6-MISTER CHARMING is another that figures to rate and run on late. His last two were solid as he stalking trip could be the route to go. 7-WILDWOOD'S WARRIOR is another that should be close-up in here as he improved in his last couple. The distance suits and the price should be right.

The 1 1/8 distance makes this an interesting race as there's not a ton of pace in this race. Hoping that 7-POLICY OPTION can rate a bit closer early in here as he makes his second start of the meet. The field he comes out of was very tough and the class relief should make a difference. 3-RED HORNET won over the Yielding going in his last as he was able to rally late. He could be in a tracking position early as he looks to pick off horses in the lane. 4-SHADY MCGEE (IRE) is another that gets some class relief into here as he ran well in a pair of races in Indiana on the grass earlier in the summer. He is another that could rate closer early as he figures to take some action in here.

Another race full of pace which could play into the closing move of 7-RICHIESONAROLL. He ran evenly at this level in his last but has shown the ability to run on late in the past. 1-ONASA should be sitting just off the pace in this race as he was a solid winner in his last. With the rail draw he just needs to avoid hoking up with the other pace. 8-ELI'S PROMISE is one of those with speed that is proven at the distance. Let's see if he's able to clear and battle upfront.

A couple with speed in here and the potential for an upset. 8-CHURCH PEW was the one to pull off that upset last out and could do so once again. His form has been solid this meet and the price should be right once again. 10-R KATIEBUG has speed but doesn't necessarily need the front. She chased in her last and almost got up in time. Let's see if she can stalk once again.

5-SMOOTH JUSTICE might hold a slight edge. She’s coming off a good second-place finish at this claiming level in Indiana. However, that race was against Indiana breds and she’s meeting open company today. She’s capable of displaying competitive speed. Slim pick. 3-MUSED turned in a clunker in last but she finished a close-up third at that same level in her previous start. Now she drops and should be meeting easier. Can turn it back around. Don’t ignore 2-JOCELYN. Her last race looks terrible but she was unprepared for the start in last and trailed the field throughout. However, she pretty much wired the field in early June before tiring when they stretched her out in her next start. Think she’ll go off at higher odds than she might deserve.

3-KHOZAN’S SUCCESS finished first in two of her last three races, though she was DQ’d from that start three races back. He’s going to have to deal with Blurt on the front end again but he put that rival away in last and still won. Can do it again. 5-DIAMOND DAVE could close the fastest of all. He was able to win last despite stumbling at the start. That was his first race at this level for a long time. But he’s right back at it; this time with the red-hot Loveberry in the irons. Can repeat. 6-UNIFIED WEEKEND is another coming off a late-running victory. He was claimed from his last five races, though his last was voided. He’s been in good form for a long time. Would be no surprise.

The slight cut back in distance would seem to favor 3-ALL CHOKED UP. This speedy runner just failed to last on the lead in his most recent start. This race is a sixteenth shorter. He should have plenty left for the finish. 4-SIMPLE LOGIC has had seven races at similar distances and ran well in most of them. He’s probably not as quick as top choice but he won’t be too far back and he might have more finish. 6-HAY MOON was pretty impressive in his turf debut. He crushed the field and paid over $64 doing it. This is a tougher field but his turf “fig” places him squarely in the hunt.

Have to go with 4-LITTLE POISON. She hasn’t been working as fast as some Rivelli-trained runners but she will have Jareth Loveberry in the irons and they win over 30$ of the time when they team up. However, there are many in here that might be better, at least today. Rivelli’s other runner, 7-ELIZA VANCE, can’t be ignored. This $285,000 purchase went off as the odds-on favorite in her debut but was never a serious contender after a troubled start. She had three works since that didn’t impress but it would be a mistake to take her chances lightly. 5-BELLA VITTORIA has been working bullets for her debut. However, her trainer doesn’t push her charges to win at first asking. Couldn’t be too surprised if she won but wouldn’t be at all surprised if she needed a race. 6-NOTIPTONY outran her odds in her debut. She led for most of the race, always under pressure, and simply got passed late. We already know she can run and she could be even better with a trip under her belt. 3-LYLAH RENEE is another that hasn’t impressed in her drills but this homebred races for one of the top trainers around. Worth a look.

Guessing 3-WILMA MANKILLER needed last. She was making her first start since October. She still ran well but just came up a little short. But runners from her barn, when making their second starts off long layoffs, win about 41% of the time. 5-FIRST HILL has now reeled off five straight first-place efforts though she was DQ’d in the first race of that string. She was claimed from a hot barn in her last race but moved to an even hotter barn that wins with almost 30% of their first-time claims. 7-BEEHIVE has been razor sharp this year. She won three of her four races and finished second in the other. None of those races were easy but she gives it her all every time.

3-TWO COOKIE RULE could be tough. He showed little sprinting in his first couple starts of the year but really came alive when stretched out in last. He was only a neck behind at the finish. Switches barns and riders after that last race. They will have a hard time beating him. 6-MISTER CHARMING hasn’t won in years but he’s usually competitive when racing at the right level and this is the right level. 7-WILDWOOD WARRIOR’s last race, a second-place finish, was his best effort in a long time. Might be coming around.

10-COOL QUARTET will be extremely tough if this race gets moved to the main track. Push button speed gives him the luxury of being able to run well on or off the pace. His dirt speed figures tower over those of the rest of the field. 7-POLICY OPTION could pull off a minor upset if this race doesn’t get moved to the main track. He didn’t show a thing in last but that race was moved to the main track, he was in against tougher and he was making his first start since September. His below-the radar barn is winning at the 38% clip this meet. Not sure about his chances if this race does get moved to the main track but he has earned nearly $250,000 on the turf in his career. 4-SHADY MCGEE appears to be the one to beat. He lost his local debut by 16 but he was in against allowance company. Drops back to the claiming price of the race he was taken from. He finished second in three of his five races this year. With the drop in class, he could earn a trip to the winner’s circle. 

Not in love with 1-ONASA, many in here sport higher speed figures, but he seemed to turn the corner in last when he was shipped to Mountaineer. He beat an allowance field by a wide margin but the difference might have been that that was his first race with Lasix. With all the speed in here he should be able to sit right off what could be a heated speed duel. Another positive factor is that he’s two for two on off tracks. 2-COMISKEY PARK is another that won both his off-track starts. Ignore his dull effort in last. He was running against stakes company on turf and because it was a stakes race, he had to run without Lasix. He’ll be able to use it against today. The class drop and the return to the main track certainly helps. 5-FIT TO FLY should bounce back. He’s coming off a terrible effort but that was his first race of the year and he stumbled at the start and never recovered. Think he’s the quickest from the gate. Stablemate of top choice could be in front from start to finish.

12-CALISUE is entered for main track only and could hold a hefty advantage if this race does get moved to dirt. She finished in the money in all eight of her races this year. She owns enough speed to stay close early but still retains the ability to finish well late. I thought 10-R KATIEBUG would fly to the lead in last and never look back. But another mare had the same idea and beat her to the lead. That runner led all the way around while this filly tried in vain to catch her. This race seems to contain even more speed than her last, but still think she’ll get the jump on them if this race stays on the lawn.  2-BOLTORO could have dead aim late. She’s making her local debut after finally breaking her maiden, in her 17^th start, at Ellis in last. When she fires, however, she closes with a rush. 

Race 6:  6 - 2 - 3

Late Pick 4 Ticket: 2,3,4,6,7 / 7,9,10 / 2,3,5,7,8 / 12  ($37.50)

Not proud of this pick at all, but #6 Mister Charming (3-1) seems to be rounding back into form. An 8-yr. old who is 3-for-65, “Charming” should sit right off the speed to his inside. The problem is the gelding is camera-shy, so I don’t know if today will be his day, but I feel as if he has as good a chance as any today. By every measure, he fits in this spot.

Race 7:  10 - 9 - 7

There are two “also-eligibles” signed on in the field, and either one can win. I’ll go with the horse on the far outside, #10 Cool Quartet (5-2). He’s as honest as the day is long, and looks to sit a comfy stalking trip on the outside. Not a fan of an 8yr-old coming off a relatively short layoff, but I’m expecting a short field with a switch to dirt. 

Race 8:  3 - 5 - 7

#3 Navy Seal (8-1) will need a pace meltdown to win, but I think that’s realistic. As the best closer on paper, Navy Seal got acclimated to the Cicero oval last time with an average effort. Now, he’s had time to train over the track and faces a field with a TON of early speed. Maybe I’m reaching too far, and perhaps the 6f is too short, but when I see a pace scenario so positive for a longer-priced horse, I have to tout. 

Race 9:  12 - 2 - 5

#12 Calisue (3-1) is on the AE-list, but I expect her to get into the field. Assuming she does, she’ll be very formidable, as most of the field is best on turf and not nearly as fast on paper on dirt. The wide post will be negated by a smaller field, so I’m less worried about being hung wide early.