Handicapper Tips & Picks

#5 SMOOTH JUSTICE fits this conditions looking for the first won this year. She appears well placed and subtle change in class returning to Hawthorne after a pair of competitive efforts in the recent HS Indy starts.

#2 JOCELYN is worth another look making her second start off the claim and following an EX – EXCUSE for J. Campbell back on 7/7 when unprepared at the start, TROUBLES+. Her ability to show early speed and drawn inside could present an asset in this field.

#3 MUSAD could move up naturally off her form/figures to land in the right spot to compete. Class wise this is a drop for her racing at the lowest of her career in for the $5k tag though the move could also come with reservations off a look effort back on 5/30 and the two month break. 

Looking at the Plot, the lower SpeedRate should assist runners with tactical speed – the scenario with #3 BLURT and #3 KHOZAN’S SUCCESS dueling (first call) early on should set up an ideal trip for #6 UNIFIED WEEKEND to sit off that pair and look for first run on the others. UNIFIED WEEKEND returns from the 39-day freshening and likely the right move with the added recovery as he had to work HARD to win back on 6/23. 

With the early weather reports looking at the high potential for this race to come off the turf and run on the main track. Many of the horses in this field have dirt form and versatility to keep the field as-is on race day. That should also keep the projected early pace contentious with four of the eight runners listed with the E RunStyle, with a few stretching out from sprint races. The scenario today should suit #5 LAWMAKER one that was asked to RUSH on 7/11 with the lack of pace (VS Early and Late) and should not be forced to make that trip here. He can sit and make a run, his preferred trip and comes into this race with better form than what might appear “on paper” with the recent running lines and finishing positions. #6 HAY MOON popped with a big race last out and not out of their capabilities to compete right back and moves up with some price compensation. 

#7 ELIZA VANCE leads the off the L. Rivelli pair holding experience as she makes her second career start. She was no match for the well-prepared M. Campbell debut runner, Dancing Magic on 6/23, though should benefit from the experience and slight addition (STRETCH) of ground. She should be fit off the initial start and works since including the strong 5f move in :58.4 looking to validate herself and the public going off favored on debut and likely to take up the same role here.

J. Campbell appears live with #1 SHE STOPPED SHORT for her debut with a strong series of works and pair of “bullet” moves in the series including the half mile from the gate one week ago. She worked 10.2 at the sale and was efficient and willing in the drill back in May and not surprised to see her show up here with those recent moves to translate to a solid showing first out. #5 BELLA VITTORIA also shows up with the series of bullet moves, though not one I have seen to match visuals to times, though will get a look at her on race day as well as the wagering action.

#4 LITTLE POISON  was entered back on 7/11 and names with J. Loveberry as their one mount on the card, should she have run that day. She appears no worse for the wear with similar jockey/trainer intention along with the work four days late, out of the gate half mile move in 47.2 though she will be taking on open company. #3 LYLAH RENEE also will meet open company and while she has plenty of foundation with her works, nothing overly jumps out of the published series. 

Looking at the Plot, the Sun Contention paired with the 58 SpeedRate should allow for a scenario to “stalk-and-pounce” and might make things tougher on #3 WILMA MANKILLER returning here with early speed and likely to take pace pressure from others in this field. She was very good here last season, though did not find races with the higher SpeedRate that is in play today and when she did it (like 6/29) it played a role in the outcome.

The Plot is showing  #2 HYPERSPORT as part of that Quad I group and as a Large Circle, though that position is impacted by the races this season, races she can be upgraded from. That includes the BTL effort with the place finish on 6/29 when taken out of her runstyle after stumbling at the start, TROUBLE_S. She has races that stand up on par and consistent figures to get back in the winners circle here.

The number on #1 FLAMMAND should be high enough again today to get creative with. She is tough to make the case for off the two starts this season, though did appear she required the race off the bench at CD and timing (and upgrade race flow) might have played against her on the quick turnaround for the 6/29 common race. She has some stakes experience and can pop with a big number from time to time and her top effort has her a player here. 

#3 TWO COOKIE RULE was sitting on a big race and ran to it earlier this month and while they receive a look right back the number projects to be much shorter here. Heading into the 7/17 race TWO COOKIE RULE moved up with fitness off the layoff and caught the eye making a CLOSE and GALLOP+ on 7/11 that transferred to a game (B) place finish last out. He returns under similar conditions first off the claim, picks up J. Loveberry and should find a stalking trip behind the inside two, #1 FLYING SAMURAI and #2 BOURBON DELIGHT, the projected pacesetters.

#6 MISTER CHARMING has been knocking on the door and a contender in this spot. He jumped up with a big race off the bench in the first part of the meet a few “excuses” in May and has been back on track as of late and might present the value here with the recent 4^th place result.

The DiZeo barn will also be represented by #7 WILDWOOD WARRIOR one that has held form especially as of late with the improved figures and minor finishes. Trip from the outside could also see them use early for position and find the stalking trip just to the outside of their recently acquired stablemate, TWO COOKIE RULE.

The early weather reports suggest the high likelihood off this race to come off the turf, a scenario that sets up for the two MTO runners, #9 CANTSTEALMYTHUNDER and #10 COOL QUARTET. Those two will move up naturally and also find public attention on the surface switch and should create some value on #7 POLICY OPTION should they opt to stay in. They stayed in last month coming off the layoff and upgraded from the TROUBLE trip with adversity at the start (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) and showed more run making a MOVE than the running line and finishing position suggests. In addition, the race appeared a PREP off the bench and has back numbers on any surface that fits on par. 

#3 NAVY SEAL should find a favorable stalking trip and presents fair odds at the ML assignment. That number could hold in here despite some recent minor finishes and figures on par that can win this race keying off the pair of Oaklawn starts earlier this while sprinting. He returns with a freshening and with J. Loveberry, his win rider over this course from back in 2022.

Like NAVY SEAL the early pace in the race and should set up the right trip for #7 RICHIESONAROLL to stalk and pounce and compete here. While he has just the lone win on the year back in April, his form has been consistent throughout and upgraded with the 40-day freshening since the 6/22 event under similar conditions making a WIDE MOVE with a slightly higher race par.

As far as the early speed, #5 FIT TO FLY could present the controlling speed in this race and intent after scratching from the stakes last Sunday and in their second start off the layoff. Improvement can be projected from the 7/7 return, given a legit EX – EXCUSE as they were unprepared at the start (GATE) stumbled (TROUBLE_S) and made a RUSH before losing (NO_KEEP) ground. 

This race could take some additional handicapping after the scratches to assess this race from the runners in the field and pace scenario. As far as class (and some versatility) #2 BOLTORO is less “proven” on the dirt though fits on class and form with some confidence coming off the maiden win. She turned in a place finish on this main track back in April, though did not earn a strong figure, though the off track certainly could have impacted that number. #6 VISIONISTA could be overlooked off the recent races and moves up with the freshening. She returns with intent back at the N1 allowance level and fits on her best day in this group and par.