Handicapper Tips & Picks

5-SMOOTH JUSTICE might hold a slight edge. She’s coming off a good second-place finish at this claiming level in Indiana. However, that race was against Indiana breds and she’s meeting open company today. She’s capable of displaying competitive speed. Slim pick. 3-MUSED turned in a clunker in last but she finished a close-up third at that same level in her previous start. Now she drops and should be meeting easier. Can turn it back around. Don’t ignore 2-JOCELYN. Her last race looks terrible but she was unprepared for the start in last and trailed the field throughout. However, she pretty much wired the field in early June before tiring when they stretched her out in her next start. Think she’ll go off at higher odds than she might deserve.

3-KHOZAN’S SUCCESS finished first in two of her last three races, though she was DQ’d from that start three races back. He’s going to have to deal with Blurt on the front end again but he put that rival away in last and still won. Can do it again. 5-DIAMOND DAVE could close the fastest of all. He was able to win last despite stumbling at the start. That was his first race at this level for a long time. But he’s right back at it; this time with the red-hot Loveberry in the irons. Can repeat. 6-UNIFIED WEEKEND is another coming off a late-running victory. He was claimed from his last five races, though his last was voided. He’s been in good form for a long time. Would be no surprise.

The slight cut back in distance would seem to favor 3-ALL CHOKED UP. This speedy runner just failed to last on the lead in his most recent start. This race is a sixteenth shorter. He should have plenty left for the finish. 4-SIMPLE LOGIC has had seven races at similar distances and ran well in most of them. He’s probably not as quick as top choice but he won’t be too far back and he might have more finish. 6-HAY MOON was pretty impressive in his turf debut. He crushed the field and paid over $64 doing it. This is a tougher field but his turf “fig” places him squarely in the hunt.

Have to go with 4-LITTLE POISON. She hasn’t been working as fast as some Rivelli-trained runners but she will have Jareth Loveberry in the irons and they win over 30$ of the time when they team up. However, there are many in here that might be better, at least today. Rivelli’s other runner, 7-ELIZA VANCE, can’t be ignored. This $285,000 purchase went off as the odds-on favorite in her debut but was never a serious contender after a troubled start. She had three works since that didn’t impress but it would be a mistake to take her chances lightly. 5-BELLA VITTORIA has been working bullets for her debut. However, her trainer doesn’t push her charges to win at first asking. Couldn’t be too surprised if she won but wouldn’t be at all surprised if she needed a race. 6-NOTIPTONY outran her odds in her debut. She led for most of the race, always under pressure, and simply got passed late. We already know she can run and she could be even better with a trip under her belt. 3-LYLAH RENEE is another that hasn’t impressed in her drills but this homebred races for one of the top trainers around. Worth a look.

Guessing 3-WILMA MANKILLER needed last. She was making her first start since October. She still ran well but just came up a little short. But runners from her barn, when making their second starts off long layoffs, win about 41% of the time. 5-FIRST HILL has now reeled off five straight first-place efforts though she was DQ’d in the first race of that string. She was claimed from a hot barn in her last race but moved to an even hotter barn that wins with almost 30% of their first-time claims. 7-BEEHIVE has been razor sharp this year. She won three of her four races and finished second in the other. None of those races were easy but she gives it her all every time.

3-TWO COOKIE RULE could be tough. He showed little sprinting in his first couple starts of the year but really came alive when stretched out in last. He was only a neck behind at the finish. Switches barns and riders after that last race. They will have a hard time beating him. 6-MISTER CHARMING hasn’t won in years but he’s usually competitive when racing at the right level and this is the right level. 7-WILDWOOD WARRIOR’s last race, a second-place finish, was his best effort in a long time. Might be coming around.

10-COOL QUARTET will be extremely tough if this race gets moved to the main track. Push button speed gives him the luxury of being able to run well on or off the pace. His dirt speed figures tower over those of the rest of the field. 7-POLICY OPTION could pull off a minor upset if this race doesn’t get moved to the main track. He didn’t show a thing in last but that race was moved to the main track, he was in against tougher and he was making his first start since September. His below-the radar barn is winning at the 38% clip this meet. Not sure about his chances if this race does get moved to the main track but he has earned nearly $250,000 on the turf in his career. 4-SHADY MCGEE appears to be the one to beat. He lost his local debut by 16 but he was in against allowance company. Drops back to the claiming price of the race he was taken from. He finished second in three of his five races this year. With the drop in class, he could earn a trip to the winner’s circle. 

Not in love with 1-ONASA, many in here sport higher speed figures, but he seemed to turn the corner in last when he was shipped to Mountaineer. He beat an allowance field by a wide margin but the difference might have been that that was his first race with Lasix. With all the speed in here he should be able to sit right off what could be a heated speed duel. Another positive factor is that he’s two for two on off tracks. 2-COMISKEY PARK is another that won both his off-track starts. Ignore his dull effort in last. He was running against stakes company on turf and because it was a stakes race, he had to run without Lasix. He’ll be able to use it against today. The class drop and the return to the main track certainly helps. 5-FIT TO FLY should bounce back. He’s coming off a terrible effort but that was his first race of the year and he stumbled at the start and never recovered. Think he’s the quickest from the gate. Stablemate of top choice could be in front from start to finish.

12-CALISUE is entered for main track only and could hold a hefty advantage if this race does get moved to dirt. She finished in the money in all eight of her races this year. She owns enough speed to stay close early but still retains the ability to finish well late. I thought 10-R KATIEBUG would fly to the lead in last and never look back. But another mare had the same idea and beat her to the lead. That runner led all the way around while this filly tried in vain to catch her. This race seems to contain even more speed than her last, but still think she’ll get the jump on them if this race stays on the lawn.  2-BOLTORO could have dead aim late. She’s making her local debut after finally breaking her maiden, in her 17^th start, at Ellis in last. When she fires, however, she closes with a rush.