Handicapper Tips & Picks

#4 BAXLEY has the benefit of his early speed drawn outside the other pacesetting types in this compact field. He has the tendency to break a step SLOG and RUSH for position something he has shown since his debut and coming back this year from the layoff. He was very game and upgraded from the CBY effort back in June and picked up the win last month to gain confidence. This will be a step up in class taking on older, a main hurdle that at the least should be noted for price compensation. #5 GOOD APPLE races today for the claiming tag, though higher $75k as a IL-bred in this spot. He does not hold any strong edge and number wise must return to a top effort, though on class has been running in some competitive N1 allowance events that could present a slight edge – even over #1 CONGRATS ON FIFTY coming off a dominant B+ win last out. 

The analysis starts with #3 DOUBLE THUNDER one that from at the least “on paper” is the horse to beat. He has been consistent all season, never out of the exacta, while recording consistent figures that not only fit on par though sit higher, again consistently over the others in this field. With that said, his visuals leave something to be desired and will be tested with the added ground once again and lacked GALLOP- with the place finish last month to perhaps open the door. #5 GLOBAL EMPIRE has not been as consistent this season though does hold numbers that stack up on par and in line with DOUBLE THUNDER this season. His 3/31 number sits as the highest this season and since that race has steadily improved his figures where a return to a new top could be in the cards and the slight upset as a result. 

There is a scenario for #3 CHARLIE LIGHTNING to  as the “lone speed”  (Q1) and capable of putting this field away at the first call. There are other things to like in this spot as the connections have given him a 42-day freshening since the recent starts that he should appreciate from a recovery standpoint. He will also race for a slightly higher tag and purse, another positive sign of confidence all around with regular rider, L. Colon aboard.

The pace scenario could make things tougher on the off the pace runners though does appear intent for #6 PARKER making a return to Hawthorne with consistent form this year and with a rider change (TACTIC-) looking for that belated win and at the least should continue to pick up a check. #4 PADDY’S HOUSE is sure to be less “obvious” off the recent running lines and finishing positions. Class wise this is a drop in claiming tag and subtle in terms of par from the races this year. They will keep him on the main track and one turn where he was competitive despite the TACTIC- making a WIDE MOVE last month and going back to prior seasons here at Hawthorne has been competitive over this course and distance with the pair of allowance win/place sprints back in May of 2022 and his maiden score in March of 2021. 

#4 NIFF shows up with class relief and should be in the right spot and level to compete. In terms of today’s route distance, she finds the change here with the surface switch and first time around two turns on the main track though has handled herself going two turns on the turf including her most “recent” win back in June 2022.

Looking to split the Haran runners, #3 EMITYAAZ has the “Square” edge over #1 SHE BE SHEEHAN to two sharing a similar RunStyle and Q1 Plot position. The Snowflake Contention and lower speed rate could be a hurdle for #5 NO NANNETTE NO, one that otherwise fits back at the claiming level where she picked up the win back in June. 

#4 HONORANDPRINCIPLE has been looking for the grass for quite some time and four times prior to the debut last month. In the paddock, he made a positive PRERACE+ appearance and on the track presented TURF visuals to support the prior intention and surface switch upgrade for today’s race. #8 MIDTERM also has been looking for the turf and holds a class edge over many others in this field stepping up to the MSW level. There are two other key changes with today’s race; rider change being one after pairing TACTIC- in the two most recent starts as well as the shift to an outside post, something that should benefit MIDTERM keying back to his sneaky good debut here last year. 

#1 PROFESSOR HIGGINS finds the distance change today though considerable class relief in this spot that should move him up naturally and hold form coming in third off with the pair of minor finishes. J. Felix taking over could assist not only with the shorter distance but navigating a trip from the rail and not allowing them too much to do late. The pacesetter should come directly to his outside with #2 RAVIN’S TOWN one that will drop in for the claiming tag or the  first time and appears the right move as he has held his form though lacked much in terms of improvement from the juvenile season and throughout this year.

#8 SUCESSION can also be given an upgrade off the minors finishes and subtle changes for this race, third start of the cycle. He was given fitness around two turns off the bench on 6/30 setting a solid pace that assisted on fitness, however compromised on class wheeling back on 7/18 to run against allowance company and should be in the right time and place here. 

#6 LALY is going to be a heavy, heavy, heavy favorite in this race and high utilized in the late Pick sequence. She is the horse to beat with the established form and likely pace advantage from the others with race day experience. She will find a softer race par today than her two most recent starts, though a lateral move from the race back on 6/1 when she set a LONE lead with the track BIAS at 18-1. #3 JOYZELLA does not hold the same early speed, though can move up with the change in class back under statebred company.

Looking at a “new” face: #5 JACQUEK makes her debut here with some scattered works though not uncommon for this barn. The rider assignment to A. Santos could signal intent and would look for clues on the board and prerace visuals. #8 SANITARIUM is tough to leave alone as the other “new face” coming in with the series of “bullet” drills. With that said, she is making her debut as a 6yo mare and reservations on that front, though intent could also be in play given she races protected and the patience of the connections just might have to have her race ready. 

#1 THINK BLUE should be a “longshot” on the board and makes her interesting with early speed the rail draw and moving to the TURF for the first time, a surface she physically appears suited for. She comes into this race with form in this second start off the layoff and figures from back in the first part of the season that fit with today’s par. #11 TIZ A COUNTRY GIRL could make things more “contentious” from the outside as she looks to hold her form wheeling right back with the class rise off the win and claim – factors that should see her at a shorter number once again.

#8 KINGSBURY DREAM appears live for the connections second off the layoff and class relief returning to claiming company. The drop is less of a concern as she did race for the claiming tag prior to 2022 and despite the win closing out 2023, the change should look to have her competitive in today’s group. That could also extend to today’s race shape, though still requires the right trip and timing from off the pace and will need V. Santiago on their “A” game.

Both #2 TAPERINEA and #3 APRIL’S GEM have positive factors coming into this race that cam be upgraded from their less-than-ideal Plot position for today’s race. By contrast, #6 SILKY WARRIOR “Plots favorably” however can be downgraded in her form cycle with the two “Red” Keywords and pairing tops to further a potential regression. #5 SIGNATURE STREET could also find a Surface/Distance Plot upgrade, though trip/pace also will be key from Quad IV. 

#4 MON AMI FUZZIE might present value and less “obvious” of the contenders in this event. He will finds some class relief from his races this season as far as par especially returning from the 7/14 event, a first start reclaimed and has been given a little more times between starts. #8 VIOLENT GIGI also upgraded from that 7/14 common race and the lone runner in this field with B OptixGRADES, a “winning” effort for the level and back under similar conditions/par to those two June starts. That could give the edge there that is required while #5 HURTS SO BAD should be looking to use their early speed (Quad I) and the weight break where R. Slevinsky lands in this spot. The key to the race shape will be the tactics on #1 Z U SOON returning from the long layoff and one that could show some tactical speed along with #2 IRONMAN RICHIE, a scenario that should further assist MON AMI FUZZIE and VIOLENT GIGI on a first run tracking trip. 

Two Block, two Roussel with the edge to #7 C’EST MAGNIFIQUE of that group as a contender while stablemate #1 BONS TEMPS ROULE with #3 MONSTERONTHEMIDWAY and #4 TOWERING STORM kept in the mix, leaning toward the underneath mix . C’EST MAGNIFIQUE has shown improvement number wise in the races this season and tactical speed to work out a trip with J. Felix taking over. He will return with a slight freshening though also a softer race par than the two prior events this season to move up naturally with that hidden class drop.

The long layoff comes into play for #8 NEW YEAR SURPRISE one that has recorded some of the higher figures and class edge in this field. While he does give up 514-days of recency, there could be some positives as they return protected in allowance company and pick up A. Centeno, a live rider that does not often ride for this barn to suggest some intent. 

Although short, this field is competitive as there are a few in here with speed. Went on top to 4-BAXLEY as he returns to Hawthorne after breaking his maiden here last September. He should be close up early on and has shown the ability to dig in and battle when challenged. 1-CONGRATS ON FIFTY put forth a big effort in his last as he made the top and extended the lead in a race that came off the turf. That was a quality field that he faced as he continues a progressing race pattern. 5-GOOD APPLE also has shown ability as he was game in his last. He may have a little more versatility compared to the top two choices in here as rating could be the way to go.

Curious to see how things unfold here as the winner last out, Dick Best, skips this spot. Things look to set up for 3-DOUBLE THUNDER to continue his strong races as he has some versatility and should be in a perfect tracking spot. Felix has been a great fit in the saddle as we will see how he handles the added distance. 5-GLOBAL EMPIRE will be hoping for some pace to chase as he figures to sit back early and rally in the lane. He likes this Hawthorne strip and could be one to welcome the added distance. 4-MIDNIGHT BLUE NOTE was well in his last as he jumps back in to the starter series. He also doesn't need the lead to win as a stalking trip could allow for him to pick off some horses late.

Pace makes the race in this spot as there's not much along the lines of early speed. With that in mind, 3-CHARLIE LIGHTNING may be the controlling factor today. He has been sharp all season and just missed last out after being pushed every step of the way. Let's see if he can clear and never look back. 1-LORD GRANTHAM comes in off back to back victories as he will be hoping for some pace to chase. He rallied late in his last two as we will see how he takes to this Hawthorne strip today. 4-PADDY'S HOUSE is another that figures to run on late as he returns to Hawthorne after an extended period in Indiana. He gets some class relief here and just needs that pace to chase.

There's a couple in here with speed as I'm hoping they challenge one another today. If that's the case, it will set things up for 5-NO NANNETTE NO to run on late. She was sharp in her race two back and was just in too tough in her last. This could be the spot that boosts her confidence today. 3-EMITYAAZ is one with speed but she still is looking for her first victory over the track. If she can clear today, she could potentially sneak away and control things on the front end. 1-SHE BE SHEEHAN is the other potentially capable of showing speed. She ran very well in her first start of the meet but disappointed in her last couple. If she can break well, she's the other with potential to contend throughout.

Quite a few horses that have been trying to get on the grass as this could be a very competitive race. 8-MIDTERM has battled in all four starts this meet but looks to have the build of a turf sprinter. If he is able to make the top from the outside, he may never look back. 1-MILLARD A MAVERICK was sharp in his turf debut in Indiana last out. He closed with a rush after a slow start and missed by a neck. This is his second start since the addition of blinkers as the break could make all the difference. 7-RED RIZZLER takes the blinkers off as he also gets a return to the turf. He ran well at 5 1/2 three starts back and is another that will just need some pace to chase.

Curious if 5 1/2 furlongs is enough as we will see for 1-PROFESSOR HIGGINS as he shortens up today. His three most recent grass races were sharp but those all came around two turns. Expect to see him running on late. 2-RAVIN'S TOWN is fast but could have company upfront. He's been trying all meet to get onto the grass and could finally do so in here. He will likely have to go from the rail as we will see if he can clear off the other early speed. 8-SECESSION also has speed as has shown in his last five starts. He tries the grass for the second time and will likely be overlooked at the windows.

A chance for Illinois-bred maidens to face one another as we will see if some of the new shooters can defeat those with races under their belts. 7-SANITARIUM debuts for Fosdick off a nice pattern of drills. She looks to be speedy and from the outside will just have to try to beat Laly to the top. If ready, she can win at first asking. 1-ISABELLA'S BEAUTY is another working well as she will have to get away quickly from the rail. She has also posted some solid drills for a barn that is having a fine meet. 6-LALY is going to go as she just missed in her last. She has fared quite well against state-breds as the key will be if she can clear off potential speed from those on debut.

A chance for an upset here as 3-APRIL'S GEM is proven on grass and is often a square price. The distance suits and I expect there will be some pace to close into. 11-TIZ A COUNTRY GIRL has tactical speed as she steps back up off the claim today. She was good on the grass in starts two and three back as Cohen should have her rolling in the stretch. 6-SILKY WARRIOR has won her last couple as she makes her first turf start of the year. Last summer she posted a nice win at Belterra and she figures to close from the clouds.

It's been a while since 8-VIOLENT GIGI was a winner but this is the easiest spot he has found in some time. He needs some pace to chase which could be concerning as there are really only a couple in here with the potential to show speed. 5-HURTS SO BAD is one of those with speed as he has been good in his last three. With the bug in the saddle, he figures to get sent hard as he may never look back if he is able to clear. 1-Z U SOON has had success over the track as he makes his first start in a year. He comes in with just three works but let's see if this old man has something left in the tank.

Looking for another potential upset with 7-C'EST MAGNIFIQUE as he could get the right trip in here. He has tactical speed and if he can settle within a couple of lengths of the early lead, he should come running late. 4-TOWERING STROM was sharp in his debut and may have had something left in the tank at the finish. He comes in off a sharp drill as he steps up to face open company in here. 3-MONSTERONTHEMIDWAY has been good in a pair of races this meet as he will also settle back early and close late. The distance suits as he will take a good amount of action.

Tough race. They all want the lead. But, might as well take who appears to be the quickest of the bunch. 1-CONGRATS ON FIFTY wired both local dirt fields he faced, one last year and in his most recent start. He dominated both times. He could face plenty of early pressure but guessing he’ll put them away. 5-GOOD APPLE seems to be the only one that has even tried to come from off the pace. He usually goes for the lead but believe others in here are quicker. Think he’s best chance will come if they get him to relax early and come on late. 4-BAXLEY has shown a lot of grit in his races. He has fought hard every time. He doesn’t seem to be as quick as some in here but he does run for the top barn and looks ready to make his first local start of the year.

3-DOUBLE THUNDER is the one they have to beat. He finished out of the money in only one of his six races this year. At Hawthorne, he has a win and three seconds. Tactical speed will allow his to just sit behind the rest of the speed. Can take over late. 1-SLAVA UKRAINI will try to take this from flag fall to finish. He has yet to win in eight races this meet but he did finish second in last two. Can he get the distance? 5-GLOBAL EMPIRE finished up the track in last but did finish second to top choice in his previous start. He is bred to run all day. Could make an impact late.

3-CHARLIE LIGHTNING is the choice. He’s been in very good form with two wins and three seconds from six starts this year. However, he was claimed from last and the claim was voided so he was forced to take a small vacation and it’s been about five weeks since his last start and he’s had only one slow drill during that time. 2-CHRISTMAS PRESENT won two of his last three races. He can display a good closing move when he fires. 1-LORD GRANTHAM rides a two race win streak. Ships up from Fanduel to try to extend that streak to three. His barn has had considerable success with their shippers.

Team Haran could pull off a one-two punch with 1-SHE BE SHEEHAN and 3-EMITYAZZ. “Sheenan” drops and will likely go right for the lead. Emityaaz also likes to display speed but don’t think she’s quite as quick and could be leading the second tier all the way around. 5-NO NANNETTE NO doesn’t always show if but she has been a good closer at times and there’s a chance that the pace will set up perfectly for a late runner.

8-MIDTERM, if the weather cooperates, should finally race on turf. He has been entered for turf three times but all those races were switched to the main track. He seems to be the quickest of these, if those dirt races are any indication. Might finally lead throughout. 1-MILLARD A MAVERICK overcame a lot of trouble to finish second in last. He started behind the field after running into the starting gate but slowly reached contention before a powerful late move only to lose by a neck. Moves into maiden specials for this but could easily be even better with turf experience and a clean trip. 4-HONORANDPRINCIPLE ran evenly in his lone start and finished a couple lengths behind top choice. But he could be better on the lawn and it’s worth noting that his barn wins with about 38% of their runners making their turf debut and around 30% with turf sprinters.

2-RAVIN’S TOWN seems likely to be first from the gate. They have tried to race him on turf in his last four starts but every time the race has been moved to dirt. But it looks like the weatherman will finally cooperate. Of course, we can’t be sure that he’ll take to the lawn but the top barn has been pretty successful moving runners from dirt to turf. 5-PONCHO ATTACK has been very good in his last two turf sprints. Late runner might not get an ideal pace to run at but he’s coming off a dominant maiden victory and he could be poised to make it two in a row. 1-PROFESSOR HIGGINS has had five turf races and finished in the money in four of them with the one win. However, all those races have been routes and he was able to make up ground gradually. With the turn back in distance, the pace of this race will be far more brisk. He’ll have to close quicker or get left behind.

6-LALY didn’t show a thing in her debut but she ran very well in two of her next three races when meeting Illinois breds. She led for most of those affairs and finished second in each of them. Meets a bunch of first timers today. Experience should give her the edge. 1-ISABELLA’S BEAUTY makes her debut. Her works haven’t been fast but they have been consistent and her barn does well with first timers. 7-SANITARIUM has had some really nice drills in Indiana in preparation for her career debut but her trainer has yet to produce a winner in 42 starts this year. Would be hard to bet with confidence.

Going to give the nod to 8-KINGSBURY DREAM. She has only the one turf win to her credit, from 20 grass starts, but she has been in against tougher in every start for years. She was in too tough in last, especially since she was making her first start of the year. She should be far more effective with the drop and the recent race under her belt. 11-TIZ A COUNTRY GAL moves up off the claim. She’s had limited turf starts but ran well in her last two. Moved from one of the top barns around to the top local conditioner. She’ll draw plenty of action at the windows and might deserve it. 6-SILKY WARRIOR is worth a look. This will be the first time she races on turf since October. She won her last two against easier on dirt and she was claimed from last and moves up but her speed figures from previous turf races place her squarely in the hunt.

8-VIOLENT GIGI has been in good form recently and could get even better with the addition of blinkers. He’s obviously winless this year but did finish in the money in his last four. Could improve just enough to get over the hump. 4-MON AMI FUZZIE drops. This frequent claimee keeps getting close but coming up a little short. Meeting slightly easier company certainly helps his chances. 5-HURTS SO BAD looks like the best of the speed. He does tend to run out of gas late but there’s always a chance that he’ll last when meeting weak fields.

4-TOWERING STORM gives up a huge experience edge to his rivals but think his debut win was pretty impressive, even though it came at the expense of Illinois breds. It’s worth noting that David Cohen apparently chose to ride this one of the Block-trained runners even though the stablemate is has had far more success and is likely to go off as favorite. But both these runners will have to try to catch Man On Attack who could easily grab an unchallenged lead. 2-MAN ON ATTACK, another Illinois bred, has been super sharp lately. He finished second to a multiple stakes winner, and if I remember correctly, earner of over $700,000, two races back and then forced to try to catch the even speedier Code Name in last. He doesn’t seem likely to face much early pressure today, unless the stretching out dirt sprinters decide to test him. Will have to be caught. 3-MONSTERONTHEMIDWAY will be coming late. He won his final two starts of 2023, was narrowly beaten in his first start this year, and then was forced to try to catch Code Name in last. He could fall victim to a pedestrian pace if Man On Attack is able to grab an easy lead and slow down the fractions.

Race 7:  6 - 1 - 7

Late Pick 4 Ticket:  1,6,7 / 6,8,11 / 5,8 / 2,3  ($18) 

WIthout too much intel on the first-time starters, I’ll just stick with the one that has run the most consistently, #6 Laly (8-5). She’ll show her usual early speed, and a firster is not live or doesn’t break well, Laly could be long gone. I would NOT take too low a price on her if a newcomer is taking lots of money. In fact, I have a feeling the #1 Isabella’s Beauty could be a nice Ill-bred. Her works are good enough, but the rail is not ideal for a firster.

Race 8:  6 - 8 - 11

Cheaper claimers on the sod go 8f…..#6 Silky Warrior (5-1) is interesting on close examination. Although she’s 4-for-5 on fast dirt, she also has two wins on the synthetic and two wins on the turf, so she’s versatile. The new trainer reaches out to Felix, and this gal has run big numbers on the turf before, as recent as Oct. of ‘23. If she can remember what the green feels like beneath her hooves, she stands a good chance today at a price. 

Race 9:  5 - 8 - 4

If #5 Hurts So Bad (9-2) can just get to the top without having to battle, maybe he’ll win one of these $5k claiming sprint races. He’s the speed of the speed today, and although is 3-for-35 lifetime, can be brave if loose. This is an “‘all-or-nothing” type. Apprentice jockey Slevinsky needs to hustle the him out of the gate for any chance today.

Race 10:  2 - 3 - 4

A good allowance field ends today’s card….#2 Man On Attack (5-2), and Ill-bred, has really come on lately. He has good tactical speed and a great post to show it. I don’t like that he’s a bit camera-shy (2 wins in 20 lifetime starts), but is 5-for-7 in the money on turf. If the #5 sends, he can just sit off of that one….if not, you’ll see the gelding potentially on the lead in a slow-paced race.