Handicapper Tips & Picks

#4 BAXLEY has the benefit of his early speed drawn outside the other pacesetting types in this compact field. He has the tendency to break a step SLOG and RUSH for position something he has shown since his debut and coming back this year from the layoff. He was very game and upgraded from the CBY effort back in June and picked up the win last month to gain confidence. This will be a step up in class taking on older, a main hurdle that at the least should be noted for price compensation. #5 GOOD APPLE races today for the claiming tag, though higher $75k as a IL-bred in this spot. He does not hold any strong edge and number wise must return to a top effort, though on class has been running in some competitive N1 allowance events that could present a slight edge – even over #1 CONGRATS ON FIFTY coming off a dominant B+ win last out. 

The analysis starts with #3 DOUBLE THUNDER one that from at the least “on paper” is the horse to beat. He has been consistent all season, never out of the exacta, while recording consistent figures that not only fit on par though sit higher, again consistently over the others in this field. With that said, his visuals leave something to be desired and will be tested with the added ground once again and lacked GALLOP- with the place finish last month to perhaps open the door. #5 GLOBAL EMPIRE has not been as consistent this season though does hold numbers that stack up on par and in line with DOUBLE THUNDER this season. His 3/31 number sits as the highest this season and since that race has steadily improved his figures where a return to a new top could be in the cards and the slight upset as a result. 

There is a scenario for #3 CHARLIE LIGHTNING to  as the “lone speed”  (Q1) and capable of putting this field away at the first call. There are other things to like in this spot as the connections have given him a 42-day freshening since the recent starts that he should appreciate from a recovery standpoint. He will also race for a slightly higher tag and purse, another positive sign of confidence all around with regular rider, L. Colon aboard.

The pace scenario could make things tougher on the off the pace runners though does appear intent for #6 PARKER making a return to Hawthorne with consistent form this year and with a rider change (TACTIC-) looking for that belated win and at the least should continue to pick up a check. #4 PADDY’S HOUSE is sure to be less “obvious” off the recent running lines and finishing positions. Class wise this is a drop in claiming tag and subtle in terms of par from the races this year. They will keep him on the main track and one turn where he was competitive despite the TACTIC- making a WIDE MOVE last month and going back to prior seasons here at Hawthorne has been competitive over this course and distance with the pair of allowance win/place sprints back in May of 2022 and his maiden score in March of 2021. 

#4 NIFF shows up with class relief and should be in the right spot and level to compete. In terms of today’s route distance, she finds the change here with the surface switch and first time around two turns on the main track though has handled herself going two turns on the turf including her most “recent” win back in June 2022.

Looking to split the Haran runners, #3 EMITYAAZ has the “Square” edge over #1 SHE BE SHEEHAN to two sharing a similar RunStyle and Q1 Plot position. The Snowflake Contention and lower speed rate could be a hurdle for #5 NO NANNETTE NO, one that otherwise fits back at the claiming level where she picked up the win back in June. 

#4 HONORANDPRINCIPLE has been looking for the grass for quite some time and four times prior to the debut last month. In the paddock, he made a positive PRERACE+ appearance and on the track presented TURF visuals to support the prior intention and surface switch upgrade for today’s race. #8 MIDTERM also has been looking for the turf and holds a class edge over many others in this field stepping up to the MSW level. There are two other key changes with today’s race; rider change being one after pairing TACTIC- in the two most recent starts as well as the shift to an outside post, something that should benefit MIDTERM keying back to his sneaky good debut here last year. 

#1 PROFESSOR HIGGINS finds the distance change today though considerable class relief in this spot that should move him up naturally and hold form coming in third off with the pair of minor finishes. J. Felix taking over could assist not only with the shorter distance but navigating a trip from the rail and not allowing them too much to do late. The pacesetter should come directly to his outside with #2 RAVIN’S TOWN one that will drop in for the claiming tag or the  first time and appears the right move as he has held his form though lacked much in terms of improvement from the juvenile season and throughout this year.

#8 SUCESSION can also be given an upgrade off the minors finishes and subtle changes for this race, third start of the cycle. He was given fitness around two turns off the bench on 6/30 setting a solid pace that assisted on fitness, however compromised on class wheeling back on 7/18 to run against allowance company and should be in the right time and place here. 

#6 LALY is going to be a heavy, heavy, heavy favorite in this race and high utilized in the late Pick sequence. She is the horse to beat with the established form and likely pace advantage from the others with race day experience. She will find a softer race par today than her two most recent starts, though a lateral move from the race back on 6/1 when she set a LONE lead with the track BIAS at 18-1. #3 JOYZELLA does not hold the same early speed, though can move up with the change in class back under statebred company.

Looking at a “new” face: #5 JACQUEK makes her debut here with some scattered works though not uncommon for this barn. The rider assignment to A. Santos could signal intent and would look for clues on the board and prerace visuals. #8 SANITARIUM is tough to leave alone as the other “new face” coming in with the series of “bullet” drills. With that said, she is making her debut as a 6yo mare and reservations on that front, though intent could also be in play given she races protected and the patience of the connections just might have to have her race ready. 

#1 THINK BLUE should be a “longshot” on the board and makes her interesting with early speed the rail draw and moving to the TURF for the first time, a surface she physically appears suited for. She comes into this race with form in this second start off the layoff and figures from back in the first part of the season that fit with today’s par. #11 TIZ A COUNTRY GIRL could make things more “contentious” from the outside as she looks to hold her form wheeling right back with the class rise off the win and claim – factors that should see her at a shorter number once again.

#8 KINGSBURY DREAM appears live for the connections second off the layoff and class relief returning to claiming company. The drop is less of a concern as she did race for the claiming tag prior to 2022 and despite the win closing out 2023, the change should look to have her competitive in today’s group. That could also extend to today’s race shape, though still requires the right trip and timing from off the pace and will need V. Santiago on their “A” game.

Both #2 TAPERINEA and #3 APRIL’S GEM have positive factors coming into this race that cam be upgraded from their less-than-ideal Plot position for today’s race. By contrast, #6 SILKY WARRIOR “Plots favorably” however can be downgraded in her form cycle with the two “Red” Keywords and pairing tops to further a potential regression. #5 SIGNATURE STREET could also find a Surface/Distance Plot upgrade, though trip/pace also will be key from Quad IV. 

#4 MON AMI FUZZIE might present value and less “obvious” of the contenders in this event. He will finds some class relief from his races this season as far as par especially returning from the 7/14 event, a first start reclaimed and has been given a little more times between starts. #8 VIOLENT GIGI also upgraded from that 7/14 common race and the lone runner in this field with B OptixGRADES, a “winning” effort for the level and back under similar conditions/par to those two June starts. That could give the edge there that is required while #5 HURTS SO BAD should be looking to use their early speed (Quad I) and the weight break where R. Slevinsky lands in this spot. The key to the race shape will be the tactics on #1 Z U SOON returning from the long layoff and one that could show some tactical speed along with #2 IRONMAN RICHIE, a scenario that should further assist MON AMI FUZZIE and VIOLENT GIGI on a first run tracking trip. 

Two Block, two Roussel with the edge to #7 C’EST MAGNIFIQUE of that group as a contender while stablemate #1 BONS TEMPS ROULE with #3 MONSTERONTHEMIDWAY and #4 TOWERING STORM kept in the mix, leaning toward the underneath mix . C’EST MAGNIFIQUE has shown improvement number wise in the races this season and tactical speed to work out a trip with J. Felix taking over. He will return with a slight freshening though also a softer race par than the two prior events this season to move up naturally with that hidden class drop.

The long layoff comes into play for #8 NEW YEAR SURPRISE one that has recorded some of the higher figures and class edge in this field. While he does give up 514-days of recency, there could be some positives as they return protected in allowance company and pick up A. Centeno, a live rider that does not often ride for this barn to suggest some intent.