Handicapper Tips & Picks

#6 SHE’S WANDAFUL is kind of sneaky in here with the eligibility of today’s condition. She is beyond the N3 eligibility though the fine print allowance with the claiming wins at the $20k level do not count towards today’s eligibility. While that could be a knock on class, compared to others in today’s group with many winners at the claiming level still with the N3 eligibility she presents an edge. Stablemate #4 WANDA STRONG is logical in here and on class the change to claiming company where she had run previously with this drop less concerning off the win, though should be shorter of the two P. Miller runners today.

#2 WHAT’S TO DO could also be dismissed despite coming off a win and back with the two month break. She had the class edge and buried turf form to give her consideration and the job done as the favorite back in June and the dominant B+ effort should see her handle the rise in class. Number wise she has yet to run as “fast” as expected favorite #3 MISS RIVER RAT this season, though going back to the turf form on WHAT’S TO DO from 2022 those figures are some of the higher in this group especially for a two turn distance. 

After pairing show finishes in the two most recent starts #2 ROCKET HOTSHOT finds a rider change to A. Santos, a live rider that has made a difference in the outcome taking over in recent weeks and look for that trend to continue here. They have some tactical speed given the context of today’s race shape which will be key with the jump on #6 PATH TO SUCCESS and keeping contact with #4 EUCLID AVENUE as they could be the “lone” controlling speed after running RANK and X_WIDE over the turf just last week. 

#6 SAWYER FOX has some questions marks with the pattern of layoff lines and now in for the $5k tag – the connections and especially with J. Loveberry back in the saddle damper some of those reservations and drawn outside the other pacesetters (#1 CROWN ROYAL KID, #2 THE RIDGE) finds that advantage in this race shape.

Looking for an alternative takes outside the box thinking and will require a lot of racing luck and a top effort: #4 STOLICH has some back numbers that fit on par and buried form from the races this season that could come together in their first start with the barn change; overall numbers are lighter for #5 RED MOSCATO though the change in class should move them up naturally and hold upside off their races this season including the start here two weeks ago with the DELAY (two late scratches at the gate) and WIDE trip that followed. 

This race is open for any of the seven with multiple contenders and should create value in that case. Top top-to-bottom #1 PERFECT MANHATTAN could get attention for the connections come down from the ML and present upside with the class drop, second start off the layoff and added (STRETCH) ground; #2 WW BEST OF TIMES was entered under similar conditions back on 6/30 and on the day had a lot of attention from many of the Hawthorne Invitational before the scratch, a scratch that ended up seeing #3 BABE IN THE WOODS open as the favorite in that race and off at shorter odds by default.

#4 ERNESTINA also finds the change in class and looks to come at the right time and place. She has some early speed the foundation around two turns keying off the 7/11 start moved to the main track where she chased a Very Fast early and late pace holding place and given a flow upgrade off that effort. The trip and TACTIC- played against her on 7/21 and will look to rebound here and potentially overlooked.

Where ERNESTINA raced in a MSW on 7/21 the outside three return to this level from the MCL common race on that same day. #5 MADELYN ATTACK is the most established of the trio and while she has improved this year she does not hold as much overall upside as #6 MACHIVA one that turned in a sneaky good effort after the SLOG (a pattern from her and should be expected again today) to CLOSE and GALLOP+ out. Her B- effort was right in line with #7 SAFECRACKER SUE one that has shown improvement on the grass along with tactical speed. 

The analysis starts with #3 ALYANAABI, the “most likely” winner and fits as the race favorite with consistent form this season and looking well-spotted for their first Hawthorne win. Their edge on current form and recency come into play and in contrast to #6 CODETOWIN one that has some of the stronger form and higher figures from prior seasons though has yet to translate that here in 2024. The front wrap removal would upgrade #1 HATCHET CREEK one that has races that fit on par, favorable RunStyle (similar to #5 UNCAPTURED PULSE) bringing in form/conditioning in this third start back off the layoff. 

#3 WHATDOYOUTHINKMARK will make their belated turf debut here and a patient one. Going back to last season, the connections had considered running in the Tyro stakes before landing in the PRM Freshman stakes and closing out the season after that event. They returned this year on 5/18 presenting TURF and SPRINTER visuals and since then has been off though not without trying to run – entered three times including twice scratched with races coming off the turf.

#1 MAHONEY ROAD comes into this race with current form and protected after pairing wins in claiming company. His current form fits on par and does hold some turf experience including a show finish sprinting back in his sophomore season while still in MCL company. He could present the edge and value over #7 STRANGE ARRANGE one that has been protected since his three race win streak earlier this season and has seen some decline since along with the front wraps added last out.

#5 TALONS TIME is a bit of a wild card with the surface switch and move to this circuit to take on open company. With those changes noted this is closer to a lateral move and has been consistent number wise with figures that stacks up as well as any in this field. 

This is a competitive race and one that is worth holding some coverage in the late sequence: #1 IRISH SPARK moved up as a contender on 7/18 with the class drop and upgraded racing X_BIAS on 6/1 though had to settle for minors last out behind front running chalk winner, Peggy’s Way. While IRISH SPARK has a look right back the pattern of breaking SLOG is a liability.

IRISH SPARK should have some pace to target with #4 LOST SUNSET, #6 SWEET SMILA and #2 GOOD MAGIC WOMAN (preferred and upgraded from the VF early pace last out) projecting to show early speed and look to stalk that trio as shown on the Plot. Looking at the Plot, the race shape also suits #3 FLATHEAD FINALE, a logical type though on the same shape and position for #7 BABAS GAL one that should be much longer of the two.

The longer of the two C. Winebaugh runners, #5 PRETTY SKYE is tough to make the case for off her first two races though to be fair she makes the clear change in class to race at the MCL level for the first time today and the one runner making that significant change in class and still lightly raced in the third start. 

This is a tough race and looking at it for too long can make a case for every horse in this field. Will try to keep it to two runners with #1 BACKGROUND coming off a slight freshening (three scratches including twice MTO at ELP last month) looking to get on track for M. Puhich. BACKGROUND has just limited starts at CD though not a course where he has done his better running and that change in scenery alone could move him up. He also could find the right trip as he does have early speed though not a need the lead type and could look to save ground and take first run.

#6 GO EMI is a little more creative and one that off the recent running lines and finishing position should be dismissed as one of the “longer shots” on the board. His presence in this race could be one of the factors for W. Rodriguez in town today to ride and a horse that has competitive races under similar conditions and over this course keying off a win back in December 2022. As far as the form this year, he projected to move up on 7/6 with the form cycle pattern though the race shape (Slow early/Average late) might have played against him and the lower figures sitting on top if ignored would see progressive numbers coming back for 2024. 

Listed as the ML favorite, #1 PILKINGTON makes sense in that role. The change in circuit appeared positive back in June and the connections racing on the main that day decided to pass and wait for grass scratching out of a turf race last month. J. Loveberry was aboard back in Jarch at the FG though a different scenario coming off the layoff and with the WIDE trip, something that can be avoided here with the rail draw.

#3 LICENSE TO STEAL is softer than the others off his races this year though looking at him from a physical standpoint, he presents every bit a TURF runner and can move up on the surface switch the connections getting him (finally) to the grass in this fourth start. He is preferred over stablemate #9 I O FEDRO another that has been patiently waiting for the grass, scratched a handful of times this season, though a few of those entered in $20k MCL company suggesting the class edge (and experience) with LICENSE TO STEAL of the C. Block pair.

Perhaps the reason J. Graham is in town to ride is for #2 GOLDENTOWN one that has been on the turf this year. While he will move back to MSW company, today’s par is closer to a lateral move from the $50k MCL level last out with the place finish. An effort he will need a bit more from to win and did have pace to close into and deeper closers need a lot in their favor over this course and players requiring price compensation to play. Something also noted for #4 SHARP STRIKE as he has closed from off the pace slightly FLOW aided last out though did put in a strong CLOSE and GALLOP+ tough to not at the least mention for connections that have had most of their success on the turf this meet.

On the opposite end of the pace spectrum, #6 STREET FEST shows some tactical speed first out and flattered with Towering Storm returning to win last Sunday. He could move up in this second start and one to get a look in the paddock. #5 WOLF HUNTER by contrast might not hold as much upside as the most experienced runner in this field and tough to make a win contender case for though with the high five carryover in this finale is one to keep in the mix. 

Kick off the day on the grass as a pair seem to standout. A bit better of a price with 4-WANDA STRONG as she has been solid on the turf throughout her career. She will get some pace to chase and should run on late. 3-MISS RIVER RAT has been very good in her last five and was sharp in the turf win last out. She should be stalking the pace and figures to take a ton of action. 2-WHAT'S TO DO steps up off a victory in her last as she ran on well late. She's going to be a price in here but may be able to pick up the pieces late.

Let's see what happens here as I am a bit scared that Euclid Avenue sneaks away and wires the field. If bunched, 1-ELECTRIC CHARGE could be poised to contend at a price. He likes this track and comes in off a better than looked effort at Ellis Park in his last. 2-ROCKET HOTSHOT always tries hard but really had no excuse in his last couple as he got perfect trips in each. He could rate a bit closer early in here and let's see how he handles the switch to Santos in the saddle. 6-PATH TO SUCCESS is going to need some pace to chase as he drops in class today. I figure her runs on late but am a bit concerned that he is winless at the distance and has only one victory in 23 starts over this track.

Confused by the return of Sawyer Fox but going to try to beat that one. 2-THE RIDGE wasn't asked to do too much as he gradually improved and broke his maiden last out. He takes the logical move here and should be able to contend from on or near the lead the entire way. 1-CROWN ROYAL KID raced well in his debut before being claimed on the drop in his last. He has been away from the races for some time as we will see if he needs a start off the return. 6-SAWYER FOX was good early on but has been away from 11 months. He has been working in Kentucky toward the return and does race for the higher Illinois-bred tag.

Not much along the lines of pace in this race as I'll look to 7-SAFECRACKER SUE to contend early and battle throughout. She looks to have been a bit better since the move to the grass and should sit off the flank of Babe in the Woods. 6-MACHIVA posted a good race with the move to the grass in her last as she was able to run on late. She needs some pace to close into here as Graham is listed to ride. 4-ERNESTINA drops from the maiden allowance as she will also look to close ground in the lane. The added distance could benefit her chances.

A very evenly matched field. There looks to be some pace as a stalking trip could be in store for 3-ALYANAABI as he picks up Loveberry in the saddle. He chased a tough one in Maqamat last out but appears to get a dream trip today. 2-ONE WAY HOME has had success at Hawthorne as he figures to show some speed. He may be a bit better going longer though but has run in the money in six of eight at this distance. 6-CODETOWIN is pretty honest as he makes his second start off the layoff. He has won half of his ten Hawthorne starts and is another one that may benefit if the pace is quick and contested upfront.

Not high on anyone in here as I'll go back to a horse I picked two starts ago in 7-BABAS GAL. She looked good that day and was able to run on late. The pace shouldn't be that fast upfront in here as she may be able to grind her way to a victory. 3-FLATHEAD FINALE is another that comes back from Iowa as she ran a good race against much better earlier in the meet. If she runs back to the race nobody is going to catch her. The concern is just the consistent drop since that start. 1-IRISH SPARK improved to post a third place effort in her last and is back at the same level once again. If there's some pace in from of her, expect her to pick off horses in the lane.

This is a great field for the feature on the card. There is some pace along the inside which should set things up for someone to run on late. That horse could be 9-MEGAN'S HONOR as he was a strong second at this level two back. He has never missed the board in four starts at the distance and is 8 for 10 on the board over this racetrack. 1-BACKGROUND comes in from Kentucky for today's race. He has speed but may have to work for the lead if he chooses to go. The intent is there though as she should be tough. 7-C F V BULLET has won two in a row as he will also likely rate and run on late. He takes another step up in class but this barn has had success with these moves in the past.

A lot of horses in here that have been looking to get onto the turf. The forecast looks good as 1-PILKINGTON gets the nod. He tries the Hawthorne turf for the first time today and gets some pace to the outside to set things up for the closing move. 2-GOLDENTOWN picks up Graham in the saddle as he was a good second in his last. Loveberry rode him in New Orleans in the fall as he could be running alongside Pilkington into the lane. 7-SPINNING HEART is one of those with speed as he should contend much of the way. He battled over a firm course in June and ran well on the main track in his last.

4-WANDA STRONG looks awfully tough in this spot. She’s coming off a wire-to-wire allowance victory where she outgunned the speedy R Katiebug for the lead and proceeded to take it all the way. Her recent speed figures are among the highest of the runners in here, especially recently. Although she wired the field in last she’s just as capable when running from off the pace and her connections might deem to cede the lead to older half sis She’s Wandaful. It took a while but 3-MISS RIVER RAT has finally pulled it all together. Winner of last two, like top choice, has the versatility to either display early speed or to come from off the pace and she boasts red hot connections. 6-SHE’S WANDAFUL could be the quickest of these. She might try to wire the field but, at the least, she could set things up for the late run of her sister.1-MUSED is an interesting runner. She has been meeting rivals at lower levels on the main track but she had some good efforts against better rivals than these when whey last tried her on the lawn. 

4-EUCLID AVENUE wanted nothing to do with the turf or the tight turns in last and finished nearly 60 lengths behind the winner. But he’s back on the main track for this race and back with the rider who was aboard for his last victory. He looks like the only real speed in the race. Might wire them. 2-ROCKET HOTSHOT has been in good form all year. He finished out of the money only once in seven starts and recorded two wins during that time. Likes to come from behind, however, and the lack of a contested early pace in this race could be an obstacle to overcome. 6-PATH TO SUCCESS takes a much needed drop. He finished second in his first race for this barn, facing better, but wasn’t able to come up with a similar effort in last. So the drop makes sense. Should wake back up. 

In my mind I know I shouldn’t recommend betting on 6-SAWYER FOX. This lightly-raced runner had one race in 2022 and only two races in 2023. He’s making his first start of 2024 off a series of great drills. The problem? He’s dropping from a strong second in an allowance turf sprint to a $5k non-winners of two. Races for one of the top barns around and gets one of the top riders in the irons. Will be interesting to see how many claims will be dropped on him. Yes, there are other horses in this race. 2-THE RIDGE just wired the field to break his maiden. He races for the top barn. Might be able to repeat. 4-STOLICH has been in good form going long, he has had some success in sprints, and he just switched barns to one that has been heating up. 

This appears to be a closely-matched group. Three of the runners come from the same race where only about a quarter of a length separated them at the wire. But probably have to give the edge to 4-ERNESTINA. So far, she hasn’t been too effective but she will be dropping into maiden claimers for the first time. She possesses the highest speed figures of any in here. Might hold a slight class edge. 3-BABE IN THE WOODS had had three turf races at this level and finished second in two of them. She might not go for the lead but she probably owns enough speed to do it. 6-MACHIVA finished a nose behind Babe In the Woods in last but was making up ground quickly. That race was her turf debut. Seems likely to improve with experience.

5-UNCAPTURED PULSE could bounce back with a vengeance. He finished up the track in his last two starts but both were contested on off tracks and a quarter of his races have been contested on off tracks and he never won. Price shot is worth a look. 2-ONE WAY HOME could lead throughout. He was in too tough in last and tired in at route race. But he drops in class and turns back in distance today, a 22% winning move for his barn. 3-ALYAANABI has been in good form for months. He’s moving up in claiming price for this but so are many of his rivals and most are in poor form. 

Don’t think there’s much chance of this race coming off the turf but, if it did, 9-I’M WIDE AWAKE would be very tough. Speedy runner has been in great form recently. Not sure anybody could keep up with him on the front end. On turf, this race appears to be far more wide open. Will probably have to go with 1-MAHONEY ROAD he managed one third from three turf races but he’s in better form now than he ever was before and his barn wins with around 20% of runners going from dirt to turf. 4-CANYON SHADOWS finished a close-up third in his only previous turf sprint. He just graduated on dirt, going wire to wire. Could be right there throughout. 5-TALONS TIME is an Iowa bred for turf. He possesses some of the highest speed figures of this group. Have to respect that the barn wins with a high percentage of turf runners, especially turf sprinters. 

3-FLATHEAD FINALE drops once more. This is likely the easiest field she ever met. She finished second in maiden specials the only time she ever ran here. Could be the best of these. Not sure how long 4-LOST SUNSET will last but she does seem to be the quickest member of this field and could find herself with a relatively unchallenged lead. 2-GOOD MAGIC WOMAN finished second in two of last three. Completes the sprint-route-sprint cycle by turning back in distance for this race. She’s been tiring late but might finish with a little more energy at this distance.

Competitive race. Can make a legitimate case for almost every runner in here but think I have to go with 3-NOVGORAD THE GREAT. He’s shown considerable improvement with each passing start this year. He ran away from a good field in last without being really asked. Not sure he can get the early lead today and not sure how he’ll react if he doesn’t but might not be headed if he does. 9-MEGAN’S HONOR could have the perfect running style for this race. She’s not a big closer but she usually finishes with good energy and the probable brisk early pace of this race could play right into her strong suit. 5-RICKY BOBBY can finish with a rush. He’s making his local debut after winning his last two at Canterbury. His speed figures suggest that he could be slower than some in this group but think he can close enough to be part of vertical gimmicks.

Going to give 3-LICENSE TO STEAL a shot. They have tried to run him on turf three times and every one of those races has been moved to the main track. That shouldn’t happen today. When this barn and rider teamed up this meet, they won 43% of the time. This could be one of the few Block-trained runners that wins at a square price. 1-PILKINGTON could be favored and might deserve it. He finished as good as second for time in his last race, his local debut, but that race was on dirt. However, prior to that he had always been in against tougher fields on tougher circuits. Could be his graduation day. 6-STREET FEST had a promising debut. He races for a sharp trainer. He’ll be meeting open company instead of Illinois breds in this race but he also figures to improve with experience. The runner that finished first in that last race came back to win his nest start. Price shot shouldn’t be overlooked.

Race 6:  7 - 2 - 3

Late Pick 4 Ticket: All / 1,3,4 / 3,4,5 / 3  ($36)

You’ll know early if top choice #7 Strange Arrange (3-1) has a shot. He’s unproven on the turf, but has run well on synthetic surfaces, and most importantly is VERY quick early. As the speed of the speed, if he can clear from the outside in this short 5f affair, he could be tough to catch. Wide-open race…using seldom-used “all-button” in the Pick 4. 

Race 7:  3 - 4 - 1

Bottom-level maiden claimers battle to graduate….soft choice #3 Flathead Finale (5-2) drops in from Prairie Meadows in Iowa for excellent connections. The 3yo Mastery filly should get a good trip from the inside and run down #4 Lost Sunset, but it won’t be easy. It’s important to note the filly’s best effort was over this Stickney oval 4-back…maybe she loves the long stretch. 

Race 8:  5 - 4 - 3

Today’s feature highlights talented allowance runners going two turns on the dirt. This is also my PRICE PLAY OF THE DAY! #5 Ricky Bobby (8-1) ships in from Canterbury in Minnesota, where he’s won his last two races. While slower on paper and unproven at Hawthorne, “Bobby” is in great form and his closing style fits the profile of this race….there’s plenty of early speed signed on and the pace could fall apart late. I’m expecting the son of Gun Runner to take back early and make a big run. He’s been involved in moderate to slow-paced races lately, and should love the expected fast pace in front of him today. SHAKE AND BAKE (Talladega Night movie-lovers)!!

Race 9:  3 - 1 - 4

Trainer Chris Block (2nd in the standings) has two horses entered here…a first-time starter on the outside and #3 License to Steal (6-1), a well-bred turf-meant 3yo gelding who’s been unable to race on his preferred surface. By Speightstown out of a Fort Prado mare, he is by far the quickest early according to Timeform and could live up to his name if he takes to the grass as expected. He’ll have to hold off the rail horse late, who is 0-for-8 but a consistent closer who’ll save ground throughout.