Handicapper Tips & Picks

#6 SHE’S WANDAFUL is kind of sneaky in here with the eligibility of today’s condition. She is beyond the N3 eligibility though the fine print allowance with the claiming wins at the $20k level do not count towards today’s eligibility. While that could be a knock on class, compared to others in today’s group with many winners at the claiming level still with the N3 eligibility she presents an edge. Stablemate #4 WANDA STRONG is logical in here and on class the change to claiming company where she had run previously with this drop less concerning off the win, though should be shorter of the two P. Miller runners today.

#2 WHAT’S TO DO could also be dismissed despite coming off a win and back with the two month break. She had the class edge and buried turf form to give her consideration and the job done as the favorite back in June and the dominant B+ effort should see her handle the rise in class. Number wise she has yet to run as “fast” as expected favorite #3 MISS RIVER RAT this season, though going back to the turf form on WHAT’S TO DO from 2022 those figures are some of the higher in this group especially for a two turn distance. 

After pairing show finishes in the two most recent starts #2 ROCKET HOTSHOT finds a rider change to A. Santos, a live rider that has made a difference in the outcome taking over in recent weeks and look for that trend to continue here. They have some tactical speed given the context of today’s race shape which will be key with the jump on #6 PATH TO SUCCESS and keeping contact with #4 EUCLID AVENUE as they could be the “lone” controlling speed after running RANK and X_WIDE over the turf just last week. 

#6 SAWYER FOX has some questions marks with the pattern of layoff lines and now in for the $5k tag – the connections and especially with J. Loveberry back in the saddle damper some of those reservations and drawn outside the other pacesetters (#1 CROWN ROYAL KID, #2 THE RIDGE) finds that advantage in this race shape.

Looking for an alternative takes outside the box thinking and will require a lot of racing luck and a top effort: #4 STOLICH has some back numbers that fit on par and buried form from the races this season that could come together in their first start with the barn change; overall numbers are lighter for #5 RED MOSCATO though the change in class should move them up naturally and hold upside off their races this season including the start here two weeks ago with the DELAY (two late scratches at the gate) and WIDE trip that followed. 

This race is open for any of the seven with multiple contenders and should create value in that case. Top top-to-bottom #1 PERFECT MANHATTAN could get attention for the connections come down from the ML and present upside with the class drop, second start off the layoff and added (STRETCH) ground; #2 WW BEST OF TIMES was entered under similar conditions back on 6/30 and on the day had a lot of attention from many of the Hawthorne Invitational before the scratch, a scratch that ended up seeing #3 BABE IN THE WOODS open as the favorite in that race and off at shorter odds by default.

#4 ERNESTINA also finds the change in class and looks to come at the right time and place. She has some early speed the foundation around two turns keying off the 7/11 start moved to the main track where she chased a Very Fast early and late pace holding place and given a flow upgrade off that effort. The trip and TACTIC- played against her on 7/21 and will look to rebound here and potentially overlooked.

Where ERNESTINA raced in a MSW on 7/21 the outside three return to this level from the MCL common race on that same day. #5 MADELYN ATTACK is the most established of the trio and while she has improved this year she does not hold as much overall upside as #6 MACHIVA one that turned in a sneaky good effort after the SLOG (a pattern from her and should be expected again today) to CLOSE and GALLOP+ out. Her B- effort was right in line with #7 SAFECRACKER SUE one that has shown improvement on the grass along with tactical speed. 

The analysis starts with #3 ALYANAABI, the “most likely” winner and fits as the race favorite with consistent form this season and looking well-spotted for their first Hawthorne win. Their edge on current form and recency come into play and in contrast to #6 CODETOWIN one that has some of the stronger form and higher figures from prior seasons though has yet to translate that here in 2024. The front wrap removal would upgrade #1 HATCHET CREEK one that has races that fit on par, favorable RunStyle (similar to #5 UNCAPTURED PULSE) bringing in form/conditioning in this third start back off the layoff. 

#3 WHATDOYOUTHINKMARK will make their belated turf debut here and a patient one. Going back to last season, the connections had considered running in the Tyro stakes before landing in the PRM Freshman stakes and closing out the season after that event. They returned this year on 5/18 presenting TURF and SPRINTER visuals and since then has been off though not without trying to run – entered three times including twice scratched with races coming off the turf.

#1 MAHONEY ROAD comes into this race with current form and protected after pairing wins in claiming company. His current form fits on par and does hold some turf experience including a show finish sprinting back in his sophomore season while still in MCL company. He could present the edge and value over #7 STRANGE ARRANGE one that has been protected since his three race win streak earlier this season and has seen some decline since along with the front wraps added last out.

#5 TALONS TIME is a bit of a wild card with the surface switch and move to this circuit to take on open company. With those changes noted this is closer to a lateral move and has been consistent number wise with figures that stacks up as well as any in this field. 

This is a competitive race and one that is worth holding some coverage in the late sequence: #1 IRISH SPARK moved up as a contender on 7/18 with the class drop and upgraded racing X_BIAS on 6/1 though had to settle for minors last out behind front running chalk winner, Peggy’s Way. While IRISH SPARK has a look right back the pattern of breaking SLOG is a liability.

IRISH SPARK should have some pace to target with #4 LOST SUNSET, #6 SWEET SMILA and #2 GOOD MAGIC WOMAN (preferred and upgraded from the VF early pace last out) projecting to show early speed and look to stalk that trio as shown on the Plot. Looking at the Plot, the race shape also suits #3 FLATHEAD FINALE, a logical type though on the same shape and position for #7 BABAS GAL one that should be much longer of the two.

The longer of the two C. Winebaugh runners, #5 PRETTY SKYE is tough to make the case for off her first two races though to be fair she makes the clear change in class to race at the MCL level for the first time today and the one runner making that significant change in class and still lightly raced in the third start. 

This is a tough race and looking at it for too long can make a case for every horse in this field. Will try to keep it to two runners with #1 BACKGROUND coming off a slight freshening (three scratches including twice MTO at ELP last month) looking to get on track for M. Puhich. BACKGROUND has just limited starts at CD though not a course where he has done his better running and that change in scenery alone could move him up. He also could find the right trip as he does have early speed though not a need the lead type and could look to save ground and take first run.

#6 GO EMI is a little more creative and one that off the recent running lines and finishing position should be dismissed as one of the “longer shots” on the board. His presence in this race could be one of the factors for W. Rodriguez in town today to ride and a horse that has competitive races under similar conditions and over this course keying off a win back in December 2022. As far as the form this year, he projected to move up on 7/6 with the form cycle pattern though the race shape (Slow early/Average late) might have played against him and the lower figures sitting on top if ignored would see progressive numbers coming back for 2024. 

Listed as the ML favorite, #1 PILKINGTON makes sense in that role. The change in circuit appeared positive back in June and the connections racing on the main that day decided to pass and wait for grass scratching out of a turf race last month. J. Loveberry was aboard back in Jarch at the FG though a different scenario coming off the layoff and with the WIDE trip, something that can be avoided here with the rail draw.

#3 LICENSE TO STEAL is softer than the others off his races this year though looking at him from a physical standpoint, he presents every bit a TURF runner and can move up on the surface switch the connections getting him (finally) to the grass in this fourth start. He is preferred over stablemate #9 I O FEDRO another that has been patiently waiting for the grass, scratched a handful of times this season, though a few of those entered in $20k MCL company suggesting the class edge (and experience) with LICENSE TO STEAL of the C. Block pair.

Perhaps the reason J. Graham is in town to ride is for #2 GOLDENTOWN one that has been on the turf this year. While he will move back to MSW company, today’s par is closer to a lateral move from the $50k MCL level last out with the place finish. An effort he will need a bit more from to win and did have pace to close into and deeper closers need a lot in their favor over this course and players requiring price compensation to play. Something also noted for #4 SHARP STRIKE as he has closed from off the pace slightly FLOW aided last out though did put in a strong CLOSE and GALLOP+ tough to not at the least mention for connections that have had most of their success on the turf this meet.

On the opposite end of the pace spectrum, #6 STREET FEST shows some tactical speed first out and flattered with Towering Storm returning to win last Sunday. He could move up in this second start and one to get a look in the paddock. #5 WOLF HUNTER by contrast might not hold as much upside as the most experienced runner in this field and tough to make a win contender case for though with the high five carryover in this finale is one to keep in the mix.