Handicapper Tips & Picks

This is the perfect race to start off the card. On paper there is just limited information going off trainer stats and published works and in this case there are many that check the “capable” box on that front. With this race kicking off the card we will be able to get a look at the wagering and more importantly the horses in the paddock to make further assessments on play. In terms of those coming out of the sale: #1 NORMANDY NEMAN reaching out while still growing and light weight to work 10.3 at the June sale. #2 ROBERT’S MOON slappy action longer bodied okay for turf and more ground worked 10.3 in a drive very late lead change. 

There are enough runners in this field that prefer to race on or near the lead for #2 ROAR OF SILENCE to make a closing run just as she did breaking her maiden back in June. The connections have forced to be patient waiting through the weather scratching from a similar spot last month when the races were moved to the main track. The race shape should also suit #3 MS KS DYNASTY one that was very live back on 5/12 and took a tough photo beat, though also caught a softer race par that day and has struggled at this level since though at the right number becomes playable.

#1 TRIBEST broke her maiden at the lower level back in June though holds plenty of starts in higher MCL company with pars similar today and held her own in those events. While a win could be a reach she should be in the mix with today’s group. That could also carry to #4 CATHOLIC SUE in just a second start over the turf. She did not have an opportunity to race on the grass at Oaklawn and arguably did not have much of a chance with the trip last month at Lone Star and the connections giving her a “rebate” here. 

There was an idea with #1 NIFF on the drop last week and while the outcome was less than ideal, wheeling right back once again could suggest intent and some upside off the trip. She was restless in the GATE and ended up chasing X_WIDE (should avoid here from the rail) before losing ground. The route distance on the dirt was a change though tough to hold that against her given the ground loss and would expect them to perhaps try to make the lead here.

The “safer” route: #3 MAIDEN ROCK tuned in a BTL effort with a less than ideal TACTIC- and SLOG/TROUBLE_S back on 6/30 at CBY and rallied with a strong CLOSE into a Very Slow early pace here under similar conditions last month.

#4 SIGNATURE STREET also found the class drop last month and projected a bit more on 7/25 though also had a WIDE trip that day and back numbers that on return make her a main player. #6 SUMMER AT THE SPA comes into this race on the upswing of an every other pattern and should be sitting on a top effort. With that said, she requires as much price compensation as any and could get attention from the connections alone. 

#4 TU CHA appears a standout in this field. She hold a class and figure edge in this event and upside making her second start of the meet. While she returns under similar conditions from the 6/22 race, the much, much higher race par that day moves her up naturally as well as the preferred timing as she ran in that June event off a new top with the 5/8 win at HS Indy with REGRESS projected. 

In this race, #5 MADELYN BELLE will get a lot of public attention likely favored on the board and to close out the multi-race sequences. While capable there are others in here also capable and capable of springing an upset.

#6 FROSTED ÉCLAIR has sneaky strong form over this turf sprint course going back to the two starts last year as well as the 5^th place effort sitting on top of the pp’s – a sneaky good CLOSE and GALLOP+ into a Very Slow early space and should be overlooked off the running line and finishing position. #7 RACEDAY ATTIRE finds sneaky class relief to run here back in for a tag out of higher par starter allowance races this form cycle. She has just the limited turf experience, though handled the grass in the lone start last season in higher OC $40k company earning on of the faster figures in this field for that effort.

In terms of the V. Childers runners: #4 CHROME ATTACK moves up on the Plot though on current form much improve as the Surface/Distance Plot is rating some of the races last year and without question the races from last summer make her a player. Current form sides with #2 LIPLINER; she turned in a BTL effort under similar conditions back on 6/30 and could rebound in this spot with a better draw coming off a WIDE trip three weeks ago. 

#7 CAPTAIN’S FLAG is upgraded as a “new face” with the change in class and returning to the Hawthorne main track. His effort here back on 7/6 fits on par and should hold fitness after setting the pace in a massive downpour (WEATHER) over the turf just over a week ago. #6 ILLEGAL ICE also finds a class change to upgrade and while his form/figures are not as strong some upside could be projected from the races last year as a juvenile especially as they make their second start off the layoff and drop back to MCL company with the rider change to A. Santos.

With the runners holding experience at this level, #4 MALIBU BRAD has been one of the more consistent types and should hold his own once again here and with early speed to the outside of #3 SENDEMDOWNTHEROAD has the preference of the pair. #1 KEYSER requires some racing luck and price compensation, though has held his own this year and the change in post and added ground with the STRETCH from the 5f last month is an upgrade today. 

In terms of #8 GRACELEADSUSHOME she turned in a B effort with the place finish last month under similar N1 allowance conditions, though caught a softer par that day and while she is playable back at 5-1, the odds projection should be shorter here. That should create value on others.

#5 STAR WISHER could be the sneakiest runner in this field. She return from the layoff and string of minor finishes last fall. Those races all consistent number wise and competitive throughout the sophomore campaign. That extends back to her debut win, a win first out around two turns and followed up that race with a show finish in N1 allowance company at KEE closing out her juvenile season. While she will give up recency off the bench, it is not without trying to get a race as she has been entered seven! times this year including twice this month scratching with those races being taken off the turf (HS Indy) and appears she is race ready and well-intended shipping  in for the connections.

#4 DIAMONDS  JOY came up short under similar conditions this season, though has subtle excuses in those races. She had legit TRAFFIC TROUBLE back on 6/9 and found herself on COVER making a MOVE X_FLOW on 7/6. The connections wheeled right back and stretched out staying on the main track (physically presenting TURF) on 7/18 staying on as the BOS through a Very Fast early and late pace in the Play finish. #9 RIETTA also had a “trip” last month coming off the slight freshening on 7/25. With TRAFFIC TROUBLE in running, the handling was not ideal and notable with the rider change wheeling right back today to suggest further intent by M. Boyce. 

Value should sit with #7 VALIANT WEST off the recent running lines and finishing position. The timing (28 days v. 7 days) between starts and subtle changes (distance, lower par) appear positive and with intention here for the connections. #1 COOL QUARTET takes a lateral move showing up here in allowance company from the KY races this season and second off the B. Vanden Berg claim. While he does require a top effort, he fits with current form and conditioning in this spot for the live connections.

#8 EASY FAST moved up at this level coming back from the layoff last month and holds a look returning here under similar conditions. Despite the layoff, DiVito appeared to have them race ready and made a WIDE middle MOVE after a poor TROUBLE_S the race with a slight DELAY given two late gate scratches. #4 ICE AXE was impacted from the scratches in terms of race shape. He made a SAVED MOVE improving position though against the race shape – Slow early/late – the complexion of today’s event with the Sun Contention/13 SpeedRate.

The early pace dynamic is noted as a hurdle for #7 WE MISS ARLINGTON one that should find pace pressure with the others in this field including the two inside runners primarily #2 EXTRA HALO. 

Expected favorite #3 SHARP STICK is logical in here and should have no excuses with today’s field back under similar conditions. With that said, he was 9-1 at this level just three weeks ago and sat a favorable FREE SAVED trip doing their best to hold place and might need to show a little more to get the win here and the number will be much shorter today.

#7 REGIMENTAL is not as consistent number wise though on his best day has number that stack up in line with SHARP STICK. His turf form fits and should be overlooked off the recent turf races both the 6/8 and 7/21 with WIDE trips, a tough trip over this course. #8 T LAW is the worth getting creative with and should hold value with the change in surface. He will make a TURF debut though from a physical standpoint looks the part and should have no issues with the change and as a lightly raced 4yo even move up.  

The value case can be made for #1 PRINCE IS MY BOY with the C. Rosin barn sending out live runners and this one showing progression here this season. As far as turf he should at the least hold his current form and there was intent for the grass going back to his debut taken off the turn and second start a competitive show finish over the CBY turf. 

6-JOURNEY hasn’t been working as fast as some in here but his drills have been sufficient, he’s one of the older members of the field, he’s already been gelded, and his barn does well with two-year-olds and first timers. 4-LOU MAN could be the better of the two Rivelli-trained runners in this race. He’s getting one of the top riders and racing for the top barn. 3-BEST DRESSED MAN hasn’t been working quite as well as his stablemate but he does get the top pilot and he is in the Rivelli universe. 2-ROBERT’S MOON has most of the fastest drills but his barn, although winning at a 24% clip for the meet, hasn’t had a lot of success with first timers. This one might need a race.

2-ROAR OF SILENCE can win right back. She barely got up late to graduate in last but that race was a sixteenth shorter and she could relish the extra real estate of this contest. 1-TRIBEST has to be caught. It took her 16 races to break her maiden, which she did two starts back on dirt, but she also led almost all the way in last, her first start against winners. That race was contested on grass. The runner that finished third behind her there went on to win her next start. This filly might do it today. 3-CATHOLIC SUE lost her lone turf race by many and beat only one, but she has since moved into the barn of this sharp young trainer and he has been tearing them up. He’s won with six of his 22 career starters (27%). Would never count him out.

5-KITTEN ROCKS gets the nod. She’s making only her third start of the meet and stretching out to do it. Without really wanting it, she could find herself on the lead. Might not get caught. 3-MAIDEN ROCK is in better form than most of her rivals. She finished in the money in last two; once here and in her previous start in Minnesota. The mare that won her last, where she finished second, came right back to win again. 2-MORNING LINE NEWS raced in second throughout in her most recent start and, on paper, that looks like she displayed speed but the pace set by the winner of that race was rather pedestrian. But the speed figure she generated in that race was the highest recently by any in here and the last race highest “Beyer” has been a useful handicapping tool.

1-PRINCESS TENKO should find the pace to her liking. Well-travelled filly finished second in her two local starts. She’s generally not a big closer and this race might be too short for her but think she’ll start to engage the early leaders by midstretch and might finish fastest of all. 4-TU CHA also comes on late. She hasn’t raced for nearly six weeks but she’s been training well during that interim. 5-SURPRISE ME AGAIN looked sharp as a longshot maiden winner two races back but wasn’t able to repeat that effort in her first start against winners and finished well behind top choice. But that race was contested on an off track and today she’ll get a fast surface. It might make the difference.

Hard to get past 5-MADELYN BELLE with her four-race win streak. She’s two for two on turf. Others in here have speed and could challenge her for the lead but she has repeatedly put that tyle away. Seems likely to do it again. The Childers barn got off to a slow start at this meet but they have been firing on all cylinders lately. They have a pair of accomplished turf sprinters in this race. 4-CHROME ATTACK might be better suited to this spot. Although not in the best of form lately, she’s capable of closing with a rush. 2-LIPLINER, another in relatively poor form, can also close but she’s more likely to display speed. Could help to set things up for her stablemate. 3-COTTON CANDY ANNIE drops and takes blinkers off and turns back in distance. She hadn’t shown much in previous turf attempts but, other than top choice, this could be the easiest field she has met on the lawn.

7-CAPTAIN'S FLAG drops and moves back to the main track. Three of his four races were on turf and he showed little in those events but he did finish second in his lone dirt race and he was in against better rivals. 3-SENDEMDOWNTHEROAD will be sent to the lead. He does tend to tire late but there is always the chance that he’ll finally hang on. 4-MALIBU BRAD ran well in his two races at this level. He just finished second after stalking the early pace. Figures to get the same kind of trip in this one.

This is a race where I could have made a case for many runners but I did wind up with 8-GRACELEADSUSHOME. She’s one of many in good form but like that she ran well in last, her first turf sprint, and think she can be even better her second time around. 5-STAR WISHER ran well in most of her starts and could easily be favored in this race. However, she’s running for the first time since October and I haven’t been impressed with her recent drills. She might need a race. 3-FRANKEL BABY has shown the ability to run well on or right off the pace. Would probably like her better at five furlongs but certainly think she’s capable of sharing. 6-BACKSTAGE PASS is an interesting runner. She had only the one turf race, a maiden win in last, but she still generated one of the higher speed figures of any in here.

Sometimes a change of scenery can wake a horse up. 4-DANVILLE could be the case in point. He always runs well on dirt but has been unable to get a win at this level. But he has now switched barns and they win with 21% of runners debuting for them.  It can make the difference.  I’m tired of getting beat on 3-CATEGORY TEN but he does seem like the most likely winner of this race. Always like his versatility. Maybe today will be his day. 8-GLUCKSTADT could be meeting his easiest field of the meet. He getting the top rider for this attempt. Expecting considerable improvement.

The pace of this race could set up perfectly for 8-EASY FAST if he isn’t sent to contest the lead. He made a nice move in last and took a late lead but couldn’t sustain it. However, that was his first race since September. There’s a ton of speed ahead of him. Might be able to edge by late. 2-EXTRA HALO looks like the quickest of these. He’s been having a hard time getting the distance but the class drop and the shorter distance will work in his favor. 7-WE MISS ARLINGTON heads back to the main track. He’s also dropping in class and turning back in distance. Figures to rate right off the early pace and might be the first to move on the early leaders.

Don’t know how long 4-SECESSION will last but he will almost certainly get the early lead. He did hold on for third in his previous two-turn turf race after leading much of the way. With that experience of facing possibly easier company in this one, he might be able to steal this race on the front end. 3-SHARP STICK is probably the one to beat. He’s coming off a good second place on turf and he also ran well in his only other turf attempt. Will likely be racing closest to top pick in the early going and would likely to be one to make the first move if that rival falters. 6-DASH TO THE CASH drops into claimers for the first time. This will also be his turf debut and his first race around two turns. Gets the top jock for this attempt. Might be worth a look.

Race 7:  3 - 4 - 1

Late Pick 4 Ticket: 3,7,8 / 1,4,5 / 2,4,5,6,7,8 / 3   ($27)

Jockey Emigh has the mount on my top choice, #3 Frankel Baby (6-1), who is a juicy price horse morning line. Again, I much prefer horses who have early speed in turf sprints, and although she’s hard to trust, I’m hoping the 3yo filly does not take too much pace pressure early and sustain her bid through the stretch.  

Race 8:  5 - 4 - 1

Gonna take a bit of a stab with trainer Campbell’s #5 Hoppin John (9-2), who stretches out to two turns on the dirt. The son of Midnight Lute has longer-distance breeding on the dam side, and he’s vastly improved recently. Many in here are hard to trust, so perhaps a “fresh face” is the way to go. It looks like he has some tactical speed and talent. The only real question other than the trip is the distance…we’ll take a shot here.

Race 9:  8 - 2 - 7

2nd off the layoff for talented young jock Centeno, #8 Easy Fast (7-2) breaks from a good outside post. I’m hoping he shows some more early speed…don’t want to be too far back in this affair. If he shows natural improvement off of a race he needed, he could go by them all in the lane from a stalking position.  

Race 10:  3 - 4 - 2

I’ll default to #3 Sharp Stick (7-5) in the finale, but not proud of the selection. While on paper this horse should be favored, I don’t think Sharp Stick should be too low a price. If you don’t single him in your horizontals, you should use many others. At a price #4 Secession (15-1) tickles my fancy. I don’t know if he can get the distance, but he does figure to be on the lead and Centeno could nurse him along and be a major factor at a decent price.