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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sun August 11th, 2024

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Howard's Late Pick 4

Hawthorne Race 7

Post Time 4:58 PM CST
Analysis by Howard Kravets

Race 7:  3 - 4 - 1

Late Pick 4 Ticket: 3,7,8 / 1,4,5 / 2,4,5,6,7,8 / 3   ($27)

Jockey Emigh has the mount on my top choice, #3 Frankel Baby (6-1), who is a juicy price horse morning line. Again, I much prefer horses who have early speed in turf sprints, and although she’s hard to trust, I’m hoping the 3yo filly does not take too much pace pressure early and sustain her bid through the stretch.  

Race 8:  5 - 4 - 1

Gonna take a bit of a stab with trainer Campbell’s #5 Hoppin John (9-2), who stretches out to two turns on the dirt. The son of Midnight Lute has longer-distance breeding on the dam side, and he’s vastly improved recently. Many in here are hard to trust, so perhaps a “fresh face” is the way to go. It looks like he has some tactical speed and talent. The only real question other than the trip is the distance…we’ll take a shot here.

Race 9:  8 - 2 - 7

2nd off the layoff for talented young jock Centeno, #8 Easy Fast (7-2) breaks from a good outside post. I’m hoping he shows some more early speed…don’t want to be too far back in this affair. If he shows natural improvement off of a race he needed, he could go by them all in the lane from a stalking position.  

Race 10:  3 - 4 - 2

I’ll default to #3 Sharp Stick (7-5) in the finale, but not proud of the selection. While on paper this horse should be favored, I don’t think Sharp Stick should be too low a price. If you don’t single him in your horizontals, you should use many others. At a price #4 Secession (15-1) tickles my fancy. I don’t know if he can get the distance, but he does figure to be on the lead and Centeno could nurse him along and be a major factor at a decent price.