Handicapper Tips & Picks

This race starts with #2 LUCY JANE one that fits as an individual at this level, though does hold some question marks with the layoff lines though could be taken as a positive the connection did return for $30k off the 421-day layoff back in June at CD and waiting for this spot after a scratch on 7/25 that would have had her in for the lower $5k claiming tag.

LUCY JANE brings in early speed which could make things tougher on fellow pacesetting rivals #3 PEGGY’S WAY and #6 PROBLEMATICA, however should assist the stalking style for #5 WRITTEN CONSENT. She will return to the main track and sprint distance following an “every other” pattern and back at a level where she looks intended for success. J. Felix takes over and appears intent with that change as well. Trip should also assist #4 QUIERO DINERO as she returns under similar conditions from the 7/25 common race. On the day she lost her race (WASTED) before it starts and at the gate with the SLOG/TROUBLE_S before moving up for show with the race FLOW. 

Projected favorite #4 SMOOTH JUSTICE is in the right spot to pair wins coming off a dominant effort here just two weeks ago. She showed early speed making a RUSH to the lead avoiding any type of “trip” behind her and noted as she is not a “need the lead” type. Her naturally early speed should keep #1 COOKIN ROSES honest along with #6 SUPORB (no value)  up front.

The trip for SMOOTH JUSTICE should be similar to #5 PALACE MAGIC one that showed up with positive intent opening up as the favorite on 7/21 and turned in a game effort with the WIDE DUEL trip and 4^th place effort with the B- OptixGRADE giving her the edge over others exiting a similar conditioned albeit $5k claiming event. 

More than the potential for a surface switch as there are many in here with versatility is the complexion of the field and expected race shape. Most of the runners in this field have been consistent over any surface this season, though still could come down to which runners stay in this race. As it sits right now the early pace should be honest especially with the returning #7 EMPIRE BUILDER one that appears live and even looking for a “main track” given their race history and local record with C. Emigh aboard. If they are live they should take some money and expected in this case though should still hold some value as an alternative to runners with form this season including #4 CADET CORPS one that is less enticing at a shorter number wheeling right back in two weeks off a PERFECT trip in a four horse field. 

#2 RACARINO appears well intended second off the layoff and returning in this spot for the claiming tag (protected last out) with O. Mojica aboard. He has enough tactical speed to be effective in today’s race shape and class edge with the bulk of his races here against much tougher throughout his career and in fairness has yet to run a “bad” race over this Hawthorne main track.

#5 PADDY’S HOUSE had a look under similar conditions earlier this month and appears positive intent with the connections wheeling right back in here. His effort was a bit one paced (PLODDY) though perhaps due to the race shape (Very Slow early/late) and one that requires some pace to run at. Given the complexion of this field – Sun Contention/Low SpeedRate – he might not have the ideal pace scenario here; something that is not impossible to overcome though does require the right number at the same time. #7 CHRISTMAS PRESENT also wheels back from that 8/4 common race and looked to need the race off the 36-day freshening and should hold his form here and compete though requires his best to win. 

While there is just the lone MTO in #9 LIKE A SALTSHAKER this is a field capable on the main track and many perhaps even fine with that surface switch. The change for many coming off dirt races could be the distance as 5.5f is a change from 6f and key in terms of pace/trip and could be the main hurdle for #4 SWIFT AS I AM returning from the layoff at the shorter distance. #2 I’M WIDE AWAKE handled the 5.5f distance here in his local debut last month over an off-track and the better of LIKE A SALTSHAKER when the two met back in June at CD.

#5 COMISKEY PARK should be overlooked in this field as one of the more established, older racehorses and coming off a 5^th place finish in his most recent start. He has some sneaky main track form at the shorter sprint distance and some intent with the connections running here with that buried form and L. Colon aboard. 

Looking to step outside the box, a creative case to be made for #1 FLASHY RICHIE. While his figures this season (and overall if being honest) sit on the lower end and less “flashy” compared to others this season, he can at times pop with a big race and record a number that makes him a contender. As far as his form this season, he turned in a B effort, a winning race for the level coming off the layoff opening weekend and follows a similar form cycle pattern into this race. After the 3/24 effort, he took two starts before coming back with another strong effort making a WIDE CLOSE in the 5/26 show finish. That same pattern with the two starts (especially the sprint last month) should have him set up for a top effort today.

#4 TWO COOKIE RULE ran too good to lose back on 7/18 and perhaps that race played a role coming up short as the favorite wheeling back two weeks later for the 8/1 event. The timing is noted as they again are right back in two weeks and will be required to hold their form here and again at a shorter number. Stablemate #5 WILDWOOD’S WARRIOR also wheeling back from that common race though a change in timing from the two that could see improvement from that event earlier this month. His presence in this race along with #3 MR. FROST should contest the early pace and keep #7 PALHACO honest as he will be required to work a trip in this field with the outside post. 

#1 FROM SCRATCH might scratch as the connections have been looking for turf going back before her June debut at CD (productive race) and moved up on the grass here last month. On the day she NO_FINISH though showed legit early speed PRESSED before fading and should hold fitness second off the 43-day freshening.

The grass and a contentious pace could be key for #2 CROSSANNA one that would be a standout with this race around two-turns though must bring her class edge with the distance cutback and keying off a similar type trip to the first two starts, an off the pace run.

While #6 ABSOLUTE MIRACLE is not a “MTO” that must be the intent here as she has been entered MTO a few times this season including the FROM SCRATCH race back on 7/21. She looks well-intended with a move to the main track and based on the early weather reports, she could be in luck. 

#1 UNIFIED WEEKEND should rebound here and step up in this second start of the cycle from the 8/1 return. That was his first race back since the 6/23 win and coming out on the track two weeks ago he WASTED a lot of energy prerace and carried into a less than ideal TACTIC- from D. Cohen giving up crucial position at a key point of running and in my opinion was cost a better finishing position on the day.

There are other subtle changes returning here such as the pace complexion – the Sun Contention/29 SpeedRate – could be a hurdle for projected favorite, #4 KHOZAN’S SUCCESS especially with the distance change going 8.5f for today’s race. Looking at the Plot, UNIFIED WEEKEND should stalk right off that first flight and secure first run on #7 NOT VERY GENTLE and perhaps at a big number #6 ZARMAE can suck up for a minor share. 

A competitive finale to close out the card with this full field and many suited to today’s conditions.

With this race on the turf: #6 I O FEDRO is a massive upgrade; the connections have been looking for an MCL on the turf all season long and they wheel right back for this race with conditioning (GALLOP+) from the MSW just last week. #9 GIANNO has the edge on seasoning and competitive races at this level worthy of a look on the grass along with their main track form upgraded in MCL company.

#2 RICKY’S BEST is the value in this field and should hold double digit odds (pre scratch) in this group playable on either surface. He was given a pass for his debut late in 2022 as a juvenile with the SLOG/TROUBLE_S and NO_PUSH followed by the layoff. Returning this year he has improved with each start and in competitive events gaining fitness along with a subtle flow-upgrade from 7/18. The change in class suggests intent and while similar could be stated for #3 DAKOTA INVADER the number projects to be shorter with the May recorded figure along with the connections and J. Loveberry aboard.

Those two present as “new faces” first in for the tag and therefore more upside than runners in this field that have come up short under similar conditions. That includes #5 BLACK RUSSIAN along with the outside two returning from the 7/25 common race and given the order of finish and race shape #10 SKYLANE is preferred over #11 ALL ABOUT TONITE.