Handicapper Tips & Picks

A lot of attention will land on #5 FINDAWAY making their debut for top connections and tough to argue with a new face in this field. An earlier start to the meet would have been preferred though this one started the series according to the published worktab in June and working consistently since.

Of the runners with experience the class edge sides with #1 LA PERFECT BEE with the competitive race this season and in MSW (open) company the slight addition of ground from last month place finish is a further positive. #4 DOMINANT D earned a higher figures in his second start (numbers similar to #2 GOOD YEGG) and should be competitive on that alone, however, does find a change in class to open company here. 

While #5 IZZY’S MONSTER has lived up to her name this season, today’s spot comes with some hurdles she will have to overcome to win. One of those being pace with her main rival, #1 MO SMOKING along the rail and that pair kept honest by #3 MEMPHIS CASH QUEEN. Timing is also noted for IZZY’S MONSTER as she was able to pick up the win last month, she had to work HARD to do so and another factor in play as something that does not show up on paper.

#4 TIMELESS GLORY could sit the right trip and return with intent in this spot. Number wise sha has not run as fast as some of her rivals this season, though is not far off and has been consistent with top figures on her best day in her career that stack up. The rider change to O. Hernandez could also be a tell as he takes over today and has been aboard for the win this season and with success last year as well. TIMELESS GLORY should be stalking with first run on #2 NO NANNETTE NO one that should have (finally!) pace to target though an added challenge on that front with the 9f distance. 

Another compact field of pace makes the race and starts with #5 KATIE M’LADY looking to set that early pace and take this field gate to wire once again. She could establish that trip as stablemate #3 JOURNEYIST is unlikely (and might not be fast enough) to push the pace and will leave #4 WANDA STRONG in that role to contest as she wheels back from a LONE win just over a week ago.

Pace has compromised #2 TRAIL RIDGE ROAD this season and perhaps the main hurdle here again given the complexion of this field. On class, form and figures she checks all the boxes as a contender and trip comes down to tactics from D. Cohen and racing luck.

An upgrade to #5 WRITTEN CONSENT looked live entered on Thursday and live here as well. The race on Thursday was a slightly higher $12.5k claiming event and they pick this spot in for the $5k tag, a move looking both for a win and potential claim. As noted for Thursday, the form cycle pattern - return to the main track and sprint distance following an “every other” pattern and retains O. Hernandez in this spot as J. Felix was named on Thursday.

Tough to make a super strong case for #1 SEQUAYA based on the races this season though with that said she is back at the right level for her abilities and coming back with a rider change after a NO_PUSH last out chasing a 2-5 chalk winner, not asked for her best on the day. Again, a win is a tough ask though could get a share and spice things up in this otherwise straightforward event and compact field. 

The shorter 5f distance of this race creates a different variable and that combined with the pace and current form of the runners in this field adds another challenge. #7 GRAND HIDEWAY had a big look last month under the right conditions and dynamic and ran his race with the place finish that should see them competitive right back in here and one that has a strong 5f record. Some further upside off the effort could be projected as he was fractious in the GATE had to be backed out and checked out (gate crew always on top) and in running was SHUFFLE before making a late MOVE behind the open length BOS winner, Tightrope.

In terms of the early pace there are many in here capable of racing on or near the lead, though the edge will go to #6 DINOS DIXIE one that should be committed to the lead and counted on in that role whereas the others could be forced into that trip or might try to rate and preference to the speed that is going to the front. 

As a contrast to some of the earlier races where “pace makes the race” looking at OptixPLOT this dynamic sets up for a closer, #6 WHITE LIES. In this case, the “Fire” Contention is paired with the higher 84 SpeedRate both extremes and three runners in this field sharing the EP RunStyle including #1 WILMA MANKILLER and #4 PURR SEA. Those two could be joined by #3 FIRST HILL in top form as well as the returning #2 LONG TALL WOMAN in her first start of the season. While #5 BEEHIVE is also listed as an EP runner and projects to be forwardly placed, the Medium Square center Plot position could be the key to a trip and necessary for first run on the Large Quad IV Square, WHITE LIES. 

#8 OFF THE LAM has a look in this spot as she not only returns to Hawthorne/L. Colon where she has run well this season, but also wheeling back from a complete EX -EXCUSE last month at ELP. Value should hold as well not just with the EX sitting on top of the past performances but also in terms of speed figures as her numbers sit “lighter” than others though holds plenty of upside to improve in that department.

#3 NORMANJITO on the other hand comes in with some of the higher figures in just the limited sophomore starts this season. That includes her first two with the local debut at a higher race par back in April at GP and short-lived sprint + blinker experiment in May at CD. She caught the eye with the BTL effort last month at DEL and that effort should have her on par and competitive with today’s group.

Class is a big question mark as is the change in distance for #10 SPICY DELIGHT though as far as surface she has physically been crying out for TURF going all the way back to April and will have that belated chance here looking to extended her current streak of success. 

#5 COOL QUARTET will land in this spot after scratching out of a N1 allowance last weekend. The class was a slight concern in that spot, though back at the $10k claiming level on this circuit he is placed according to his ability to meet his needs to compete. The change in class comes into play for #4 BEEALEA returning to this circuit. At first glance, this could appear like a negative move, though being a little more realistic he is placed back under conditions and a race par where he can compete. Pace is often crucial for his runstyle and did him no favors SHUFFLE back early making a WIDE MOVE behind an open length winner earlier this month.

As far as the early pace, the FLOW aided LONE trip assisted #3 AHEADOFTHEGAME on 7/28 and unlikely to find that trip with the returning #1 LAVENDER EARL in this spot and with the rail draw and apprentice weight break with R. Slevinsky aboard they are likely to send. Despite the long 375-day layoff, figures (class, pace, speed) fit and hold the edge across the board though still must come out race ready. 

Was willing to pass on  #4 BALI BABY earlier this month as she did not fit that race shape, condition or two-turn distance. Things change here and back to the similar conditions when upgraded on 7/28 with buried form and should be in the right spot to compete. Again trip is key and will find another rider change, though in this case F. Reyes has been aboard this season and was up for the BTL effort going back to June.

#1 RARE ACTION ATTACK should be sitting on a peak effort with the return to the TURF in this third start off the layoff. While it would have been preferred running back closer than the two month break today, she still fits and encouraging as O. Mojica sticks aboard and V. Childers sending out live runners. The same trend could follow stablemate #7 LIPLINER one that has the edge on recency and while her most recent start left something to be desired the timing paired with the WIDE trip might not have had her at her best on the day and returning with a subtle class change here and another live rider with D. Cohen taking over.

In terms of pace, tough to get a read on the early contention with both B. Vanden Berg runners #5 FRANKEL BABY and #6 GET THE CANDY in the race and the duo showing a similar runstyle where they have been most effective on the lead and utilizing their early speed. Part of the early pace could also include #8 FROSTED ÉCLAIR wheeling right back from the sprint last week where once again she created her own hurdle at the break (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) making a WIDE MOVE in running. 

#8 ALL ABOUT ME is tough to have a lot of confidence in at shorter number, though a fit at this level and if there was the right spot this year this should be it. She moves up with the change in class from 8/1 and moves up on the Surface/Distance Plot to a Square with the two recent races both Standard and S/D as a Circle with the lone “E” RunStyle in this field.

#7 LOTTA ROSES is a solid fit all around and should also find a favorable trip with improving speed figures along with recency on her side. In addition, she lacks “Red” in the OptixNOTES and the lone Above+ on Plot; too tough to ignore.  The return to a route/two turn distance could also move up #3 PRINCESS TENKO here. She comes into this race following a similar form cycle pattern to July wheeling back on shorter rest, the key with the place finish on 7/14 to suggest intent bringing O. Mojica back along.

#2 ROMANTIC ATTACK does not have a RunStyleMatch (RPM) for today’s race and a tough ready looking at the Plot. She has some upside in her form cycle – improved GRADE/Second start of cycle- and going through her better races to date she has shown early speed and that could be the key especially if ALL ABOUT ME starts to run out of gas late. 

5-FINDAWAY has had some great workouts surrounding some rather pedestrian efforts. Not in love with him but he does race for the top barn and he’s getting a red hot rider in the irons. 4-DOMINANT D had two good races downstate. He displayed good speed in both of those starts and he appears quicker than any of his rivals that have raced. But, guessing he’ll have to fight Findaway for the lead. 2-GOOD YEGG took two and a half years off of racing but has come back with a vengeance. He finished in the money in both starts since returning. The good closing move he’s been displaying could get him into the picture late.

5-IZZY’S MONSTER should be the best of these. She dominated in the first two legs of this starter series. The ability to go for the lead or come from behind makes her doubly tough. 3-MEMPHIS CASH QUEEN has improved dramatically lately and the only change I can see is that apprentice Rachel Slevinsky rode in her last two. If she can continue to run the way she did in last two she could give top pick a run for the money. 1-MO SMOKING finished second to Izzy in last, though she wasn’t a real threat. She tracked the pace in that contest. A similar tactic could earn her another paycheck.

5-KATIE M’LADY looks tough. Multiple stakes winner loves the front end. Her last race, a win, came in the Katie M’Lady Handicap. It’s been two months since that race but she’s always been great off layoffs. They are going to have to catch her. It seems a lot tougher to figure the second place finisher. 2-TRAIL RIDGE ROAD runs competitively on both surfaces so she seems logical for the runner-up finish. 1-WHITE LIES has been better on the main track but she’s pretty much a sprinter, though she has had some success around two turns. 3-JOURNEYIST would have been a top contender on either surface last year but she has yet to pull things together in 2024.

2-LOST SUNSET could be the best of the speed. She’s been getting progressively better since adding Lasix. She’s making her first start against winners but seems capable of making it two in a row. 5-WRITTEN CONSENT drops a few levels while turning back in distance and returning to the main track. She’s been finishing up the track lately but the drop to the right level could help to get her turned around. 4-SAPPHIRE NIGHTS could contest the early pace but she’s also capable of coming from out of it. It’s been a year and 11 starts since she broke her maiden but this could be a ripe spot to earn her second win.

4-FAMILY TRADITION was a stretch on turf but his dirt sprint numbers would seem to indicate that he’s one of the faster members of this field. The class drop should make him far tougher to beat. Likely worth his probable low odds. 1-PINBALLER is another that should appreciate this race getting moved to the main track. Although he has had success on turf, he just seems to be better, and more experienced, on dirt and he could be even better if it rains this afternoon and the race is contested on an off track. 5-THREEFIFTYSEVEN has been competitive at this level and he’s had races in the past that would make him competitive with top choice. He finished a bit behind Pinballer in a similar situation in last but he’s still eligible to improve for this barn. 

3-FIRST HILL’s speed figures aren’t dramatically higher than those of her rivals but she has managed to reel off six straight first-place finishes, though she was DQ’d from one of them. She has beaten most of her rivals in here at least once during that span. She isn’t a big closer but with most of her rivals in here likely to display speed, she could be poised to run by them all once again. 5-BEEHIVE might be the one most capable of beating First Hill. She was favored over that rival in last but the other filly was sent after the lead just a bit sooner and was able to hold off the stronger close of this one. But she’s more than capable of being the first to move today. 1-WILMA MANKILLER and 4-PURR SEA could lock up in a speed duel but if one of them doesn’t break alertly, the other could enjoy the lead to herself and that would make her very tough.

12-STARINA was entered for main track only and her connections got their wish. Well-bred runner was an eight-length maiden winner in her lone local start. Not sure how many rivals will remain after scratches but her best should take this. 13-CALISUE, the other MTO, has been in great form since getting claimed by this barn. In her four races here, she finished second three times and third once. Like top choice, she’s comfortable racing close to the pace or coming from behind. 9-R KATIEBUG likes the front end but showed that she is comfortable and capable when coming from off the pace. Not sure if she’ll test Spicy Delight on the lead but she’ll never be far back. 10-SPICY DELIGHT is likely to be far tougher in this spot than if this race had remained on the weeds. She reeled off four straight wins downstate. Speedy miss tries to navigate two turn for the first time but can see her building a commanding lead and maybe holding on.  4-GETOUTOFMYKITCHEN might be ignored but she’s a very good closer and she’s likely to get a favorable pace ahead of her. 

5-COOL QUARTET never fired in his first race after getting claimed by this barn but he was in great form prior to that start and the drop back into straight claimers should get him headed back on the right track. 3-AHEADOFTHE GAME might be able to come from off the pace but the name of his game is speed. He dominated the field in his last, a race containing many of these rivals. He also proved that he could win on an off track. He’s probably going to have to fight Lavender Earl for the lead but that rival might need a tightener since he’s returning from a year-long layoff. 4-BEEALEA could have dead aim late. He’s been in too deep since getting claimed by this barn but the drop in class and return could have him poised for a competitive effort.

8-FROSTED ÉCLAIR could hold the speed edge. Her turf races weren’t bad but her dirt races seemed a bit better. She’ll have plenty of speedy competition but her sharp rider will hold her together. 5-FRANKEL BABY will likely try for the lead. Her dirt speed figures aren’t quite as high as those of top choice but she has managed to win three of her five dirt races contested on fast dirt tracks. 2-ALLOTROPE drops back into claimers and takes blinkers off. She has been facing allowance foes since getting claimed by this barn and hasn’t been especially competitive but it will be an entirely different story at this level. 

This was a competitive race when it was on turf but it could be even more so with the switch in surfaces. It’s been a long time since 8-ALL ABOUT ME raced on dirt and she never won on the surface, her last two races were awful, but she has been in good form when racing at the right levels. Plus, she handles off tracks and her dirt speed figures from the past are the highest. 5-ADIVA faces her easiest dirt race in a long time. She hasn’t had a lot of luck around two turns in the past but her pedigree suggests she’s bred to run all day. Two wins in four off-track starts will have her connections praying for rain. 6-TIZ A COUNTRY GIRL has been far more successful on dirt than she has been on turf. She’s been claimed from two of the top barns in the country in her last two starts, both daylight victories. We’ll have to see if she can keep her streak alive with the raise into better company.

Race 7:  3 – 9 - 2

Late Pick 4 Ticket: 2,3,9 / 3,4,5 / 5,6 / 1,6,8  ($27)

Brendan Walsh is an excellent horseman…he brings #3 Normanjito (5-1) to Hawthorne for his first entry of the meet…interesting. She’s a fresh face against okay allowance runners, and if she gets the right trip and improves ever so slightly, she has as big chance at a medium price. Hope Walsh brings more from his barn to Chicago.

Race 8:  4 – 5 - 3

Lukewarm selection here with #4 Beealea (4-1). He is a bit of a win machine with 8 victories in 36 starts. He drops down to the $15k level after facing tougher on a consistent basis. If the early speed develops he’ll have a big chance to run down the early speed.

Race 9:  5 – 6 - 1

I’m not messin’ around here…picking the one of the faves with #5 Frankel Baby (2-1). Her main threat is just to her outside and has a ton of early speed also. Sure, they could hook up…but I hope jockey Santiago breaks and looks to right. If he outbreaks the #6, just go on with it. If the #6 insists on going to the lead, Frankel Baby CAN rate a bit if necessary. Plus, I believe she’s simply a more talented animal.

Race 10:  6 – 8 - 1

Talk about sharp….the #6 Tiz a Country Girl (3-1) is in VERY fine form….just won by 5 open lengths and steps up in class. Trainer Martinez is having a solid meet, winning at 17%. So although it’s a change from Rivelli, I still expect this 5yo mare to run well. And due to the switch in trainers, we might actually get a better price. In the past, this gal was more of a frontrunner, but she’s learned how to rate and go by…that’s an effective way to beat this field if she gets the right ride and trip.