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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Mon August 19th, 2024

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Emily's Analysis

Ellis Park Race 1

Post Time 11:50 AM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#8 PHOTO OP is the most interesting and should present "value" of the "logical" set of runners in this field. Part of the value should hold with the layoff return and coming back from the 4/10 (productive race) effort (SLOG, NO_PUSH) where he can return to prior figures that sit on par and compete at this MCL level. 

#5 DELIBERATION also fits on the class drop coming back from the WIDE trip last month though does find further unknowns with the surface/distance change. #4 TIE BREAKER LENNIE has the surface/distance answered and with upside also returning from a WIDE trip in their most recent start. 

Ellis Park Race 2

Post Time 12:20 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

The subtle changes with post and class could make the difference all around for #7 VINO VELOCE. She turned in a competitive B- effort making a WIDE MOVE and strong GALLOP in the July sprint and compromised with the rider TACTIC- last out.

The early pace should be honest for an off the pace trip given the complexion of the field: Tough to assess where #5 DAME MAUDE CHARDIN will be position here though a mention coming back as a flow upgrade from the 7/22 common race after making an early RUSH and perhaps holds more upside than #4 KISS ME KATIE lacking FINISH and has shown as much in the past. She should also find company upfront with #6 GALADINI making her second two turn start and local appearance. 

Ellis Park Race 3

Post Time 12:49 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson
The analysis starts with #3 GOLD SWEEP one that could be favored on name recognition and hype during his juvenile season. While he would be no surprise running back to those first few starts. He makes a belated return today and in against older horses and back to a sprint after the connections were insistent on stretching out last year and on return in the lone sophomore start at Oaklawn. 

Ellis Park Race 4

Post Time 1:21 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#8 STREETS OF PARIS looks well placed here back under similar conditions with the cutback in distance last month upgraded with the trip (RUSH, WIDE, DUEL) and flow upgrade with Very Fast early and late pace. #10 TEMPTING LADY also given the same flow upgrade going back to her most recent start over the KEE turf in April. The class drop while perhaps not the most ideal can make sense at this point looking for the belated win.

#3 CONQUEST DANCER is logical though could require a little more than the 3-1 suggests as she has the SLOG pattern of consistency. 

Ellis Park Race 6

Post Time 2:26 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

The two layoff returnee's fit this race and while they will give up recency are in capable hands to fire off the bench: #6 SONHADOR turned in a BTL/B effort in her debut last November as a juvenile; #9 MEDAGLIA FOREVER has the edge on foundation and maturity as one of the two older runners in this field. Number wise she improved with racing and fits all around in today's group. 

Ellis Park Race 8

Post Time 3:19 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#6 HIGH FASHION KATE was given a big look last month and flying under the radar that day. She might not be as overlooked here given the ML and while she had to settle for 4th the outcome appeared impacted racing X_BIAS along the inside/SAVED.