Handicapper Tips & Picks

Starts off the card with the juveniles and added access for players to get a look at the horses and the board. That could be key with #2 ROGUE DIAMOND listed as the 5-2 ML favorite and while in capable hands with a steady worktab, she will give up experience as well as maturity as a June foal and recently turned 2yo. In addition she was entered earlier this month at Ellis in a $20k MCL event – reason for scratch Private Vet Illness.

Her stablemate #5 ELIZA VANCE has the benefit of experience and to move up off the debut experience after breaking SLOG, TROUBLE_S making a WIDE MOVE and should appreciate the slight stretch out in ground. She also has maturity on her side coming back from the debut wo month ago to project further improvement.

#3 NOTIPTONI could receive attention off the figures and finishing positions though has potentially hit a ceiling from a visual standpoint could require DROP. Upside sits with both second time starters, #4 SHE STOPPED SHORT and #6 REIMAGINE both appeared to need the race as a PREP and like ELIZA VANCE the STRETCH out in distance.

M. Perez has #7 OMAHA STAMP one that worked 10.1 in June has some run though could require a start and more ground, though the outside post is beneficial with her longer frame. The rail could be tricky for #1 MARGARITA BLUEBIRD another that worked 10.1 could also benefit from the start and even turf. 

#8 ISABELLA’S BEAUTY has the slight edge over #1 SANITARIUM returning from the 8/4 common race back for a second start. SANITARIUM moves to the rail and was off a beat slow from the gate before making a RUSH and WIDE MOVE lacking NO_FINISH stick late. ISABELLA’S BEAUTY moves to the outside and further upgrade as she was forced to RUSH X_FLOW into the race from the rail in that common event. Would also keep #5 JACQUEK on the radar; while she finished well behind the other two she showed run in spots and off the visuals would not be surprised if we have not seen her best yet.

Class wise #4 IRISH SPARK steps back to the MSW level, though finds a lateral change in par from the recent MCL events where she has held her own. Her races from earlier this season under similar conditions to today held her own and notable X_BIAS upgrade from 6/15 and efforts similar to #6 I DID THE MATH one that has remained at this level though steps back up on this circuit/purse.

#7 THE LAST THRILL finds some subtle changes here and could present intent in this spot. She returns with C. Emigh aboard and with the 42-day freshening. The rider change could be key as she had had some GATE issues in the past and an assertive, experienced journeyman rider aboard today might be the trick.

Trip is key for #4 BOURBON LIFE though should hold some price compensation in this event. He will return to the grass and fits on the surface, a versatile type as well as 35-day freshening after running back-to-back on shorter rest this year. J. Felix also remains aboard with the return to the grass the intent back on 6/29 when compromised C_FLOW and stepped up with the B_ OptixGRADE making a WIDE CLOSE on 7/18. All that is noted and while subtle could present the edge in class to #5 EVEN THE WIND one that brings in similar form and runstyle.

If those two are to be beat it will be on the front end with early speed and #7 ALL CHOKED UP could have that front end edge. While he is not “lone speed” and should have some company, a more assertive ride should be in play as they attempted to rate off a Very Slow early and late pace three weeks ago and needs the aggression shown back in June to separate and run their best race at this surface/distance. 

The analysis starts with #3 MALIGATOR one that takes a significant drop in class looking for a belated win going back to June of last year for that most recent “1” in the form and similar for the barn that overdue to get their photo taken. The change in class and intent gives them every opportunity, though also must consider trip as they have the tendency to SLOG and make a late run.

Their stablemate #1 MON AMI FUZZIE wheels back from the 8/4 common as one that did not have the most ideal TACTIC- on the day and looking at the consistent B- OptixGRADE the figure pattern shows an “every other” with positive progression on cycle here. From that common race, inclined to give #4 Z U SOON a longshot look returning to make a second start of the season and wheeling right back from the long layoff return earlier this month. Going back to 8/4, they were dismissed off the 6-1 ML, a sign of a PREP and in running should have plenty of fitness forced to DUEL X_FLOW from the rail.

Looking at the Plot, Z U SOON holds a similar if not preferred Plot position and shape in Quad I with both #6 ALPINE GHOST and #7 LAKE MILLS in a similar spot and likely shorter of the group.

DiZeo also returns with a pair including #5 PERFECT WAGER from that 8/4 common event when he showed more run than the line and finish suggests making a strong CLOSE and GALLOP+ after the SLOG, a noted bad habit for this horse. A further upgrade to #2 HATCHET CREEK with the front wrap removal, something to look for out in the paddock. 

#4 MAQAMAT would not be eligible for this condition if not for the late DQ due to a positive test from the 5/26 win. His current form fits on par and while eligible, they might as well continue to take advantage of the conditions given. MAQAMAT does not look to be any secret in this race though preferred over #6 CHARLIE LIGHTNING one that has brings in solid form and early speed, though has been flattered by softer fractions and could find some contention (Sun) here.

#1 RISKY BOY could land and return in the right time, place and value. His efforts from earlier this season fit on par and similar for the 6/23 win and speed figure. Since that race he was overmatched in July and returns to meet friends today. #2 IDEA MAN also has held his form this season and should continue to do so today though notable as they are still looking for their first win on the year are racing above condition for this race. #7 JOLIE RULER also out of condition slightly taking on males.

The analysis starts with #2 COWBOY JUSTICE one that despite the layoff projects to be favored and while they will give up recency they fit at this level and class relief. That is key as this one not only has the layoff but will also look for their first local win and first win as an older runner though did race against tougher in stakes or N2 allowance on the KY circuit.

#6 NEW YEAR SURPRISE has some back class in his own right and returns with fitness in this second start back off the long layoff. He will find a rider change to J. Felix in hot hands as well as some upside present from the 8/4 trip making a WIDE RUSH in to a Very Fast early pace and given some excuse despite the NO_FINISH.

#5 REALIGNMENT does not hold the back class as the others though will trade for upside in his third start. While there are some hurdles facing older, established rivals, they presented as a TURF runner breaking their maiden on debut and moved up number wise with the shift to grass last month at Ellis. 

Trainer H. Robertson appears to hold a strong hand in this race not just with ML favorite #4 MYSTIC STORM but with #1 SWEET CRYSTAL one that should have a pace advantage in this race and a big threat to take this field gate-to-wire. She has the rail draw and first call speed looking at the Plot to create separation on the other Quad I runner, #7 TOP LOOK and could be gone under A. Santos. That would also give her the jump on MYSTIC STORM one that will be looking to stalk-and-pounce and take the first run on the other closer, #3 SHEZA HOOT. 

The complexion of this field with many stretching out and changing surfaces should established a contested, honest early pace and assists #5 FACCIA BELLA one that already appeared logical in this spot. She will return to the two turn distance where she has spent most of her career and transferred her class to the sprints in this current cycle. Her stablemate #6 MISS RIVER RAT has yet to step up in the speed figure or class department though on established current and two-turn form remains in the minor mix.

#1 FLAMMAND will get another mention as a longshot here again. She has some back numbers and class that fit on par and this season has shown progression with each race. She has not need as effective or as much success as her juvenile/sophomore campaign though has had some subtle trips and spots this season creating some subtle trips and forgiveness since returning from the layoff.

In terms of class and speed figures, #3 WILD ABOUT HILARY fits on par. She is still unknown over the surface distance though encouraging to give her another go after the 6/9 try at CBY and added time after working HARD to win back in July, playing a role in the outcome earlier this month. 

#1 POLICY OPTION turned in a winning race (B) for the level three weeks ago and should hold his form and a fit right back here today first off the claim and in the third start off the layoff. #4 SHADY MCGEE was able to get the trip and first run on the day recording the win, though with a similar B OptixGRADE and logical again, though expects to be shorter of the two.

#3 NILES CHANNEL also a fit under today’s conditions and looking to regain his confidence after the EX – EXCUSE taking a legit stumble (TROUBLES+) and NO_PUSH in the July CBY race. The connections return to Hawthorne, a course he has experience over both races against a higher class par/purse than today’s $10k event.

Also from the 8/1 common race, #5 COMEDIC TIMING will look to improve and one that had some intent somewhere as he took action in all the pools including win, early money and holding steady at 9-2 at close from the 8-1 ML. 

Good field of babies kick things off as there are numerous in with a shot. 4-SHE STOPPED SHORT had a tough debut as she drew the rail and was immediately shut off at the break. She was working very well leading into that race and I expect she will show much more in here. 2-ROGUE DIAMOND debuts for Rivelli as this barn has been sharp with their youngsters all meet. She has a consistent work pattern an I expect to see early speed in here. 3-NOTIPTONI has run a pair of solid races to open her career as she was able to rate and run on late in her last. She may be able to let this race come to her and then look to run on late.

No standout in here but this race does look to be very competitive. Off a pair of good races at Fairmount, 6-I DID THE MATH should be able to close into the mix late. She has been the most consistent in this field as Santiago looks to be a good fit in the saddle. The main issue is the break as she will need to get away cleanly from the gate. 8-ISABELLA'S BEAUTY adds Lasix off her debut as she took a lot of action in that spot. She showed speed in the race before giving way in the lane but may have bled in that race. The Lasix addition and outside draw could allow for her to clear and never look back. 4-IRISH SPARK steps back up but this looks to be a great spot to make that move as she comes off a pair of third place efforts against open company in recent starts. Look for her to stalk the leaders early and look to run on late.

Even though only seven horses are in here, the pace looks like it will be honest upfront. Looking to 5-EVEN THE WIND on top as he comes off a fine victory in his last and takes the logical step up today. With 3-4 likely to push things along early, expect him to come charging in the lane. 2-LAWMAKER looks to turn things around as he has had a tough 2024 season. If he can get back to the fall form from last year, expect to see him rally late while at a price. 4-BOURBON LIFE is the other looking to close late. He ran a solid race on the grass three back and has seemed to be a good fit for Felix in his last couple of starts as well.

A very competitive bunch here but only a couple in who could show speed. Hoping they battle as I'll look to 1-MON AMI FUZZIE to track the early pace and try to get the jump on the late closers. The distance does suit but the track may not as he still looks for his first Hawthorne score. Going to need 5-1 to make it worthwhile but you may get that in here. 6-ALPINE GHOST does like this Hawthorne strip as he figures to be committed to the front and will just need to try to outkick Hatchet Creek to the top. If he can clear, he has the potential to steal this race. 3-MALIGATOR is still running some respectable races as he drops to the lowest level in some time. Look for him to need that pace to close into as he figures to pick off horses late.

It seems like it will be tough to defeat Maqamat but maybe it can be done here as I'll look to a new shooter in 7-JOLIE RULER for  this race. This is the mare taking on the boys who gets a big break in weight. She has tactical speed and has been excellent at Hawthorne as well. 6-CHARLIE LIGHTNING will likely be committed to the front as he was a game winner in his last. If he is able to clear early, let's see if he can steal one. 4-MAQAMAT has won his last couple as the heavy favorite and will take action once again. He should be in a good stalking spot as well but with some others that can push things along early, it could make things a bit tougher on his today.

A nice allowance bunch in here as it could be a bunched up field in this spot. Hoping 2-COWBOY JUSTICE can rate close early and look to run on in the lane. He comes in off the layoff for this race but regular rider Declan Cannon comes along as well. He is working forwardly toward the return and runs protected in this spot. 7-PROFESSOR HIGGINS was a good claim out of his last as he rallied late in a turf sprint. He stretched back out in here but should be able to also sit a bit closer early and close in the lane. 5-REALIGNMENT broke his maiden at first asking before shifting to the turf for his last. He could sit the closest to the early pace and look to get the jump on the closers late.

The question in here is if the one Block can upset the other as 6-MISS RIVER RAT is likely to be the longer shot of the two. She has finished ITM in all six starts on the meet and looks to sit just off the early pace in this race. Expect her stalk and try to outkick her stablemate to the wire. 5-FACCIA BELLA has the class edge it appears but I tend to wonder if sprinting may be more her thing. She's going to rate back early and look to close late as Cohen should be getting after her in the lane. 4-MOON RAY could get a perfect tracking trip as she looks to boost some confidence. Gutierrez has had success at Hawthorne in the past and this one may be a price.

Not a ton of pace in the race as I think 3-NILES CHANNEL will be able to rate close early. He shifted to Minnesota for a couple of races to get turf and didn't show much there before coming back to Hawthorne today. If he can stalk the early pace of Wicked Surprise, he could pounce in the lane. 4-SHADY MCGEE was a good winner in his last as he moved early and ran on late. That was going longer than today's race as he will just need something to close into. 1-POLICY OPTION is another that will look for pace to close into as he was left to chase Shady McGee last out. Last time Shady got the jump on him. Let's see if he can turn the tables in here.

2-ROGUE DIAMOND has been training well for her debut. With Loveberry aboard for the barn that wins with 37% of their first timers, you know she’s a realistic threat. 3-NOTIPTONY has had two races already and she finished second in both of them. We obviously know she can run but not sure she can beat all the other runners in this race. Can’t ignore 6-REIMAGINE. She split the field in her debut but is another that has been training well since and she races for a barn whose runners usually improve with experience.

8-ISABELLA’S BEAUTY was favored in her debut and ran well but had to settle for a distant second behind long-time maiden Joyzella. She’ll be meeting others with speed, including Sanitarium who dueled with her in last but today she’ll be racing with Lasix for the first time. She put that rival away in last and should be able to do it again. 6-I DID THE MATH is the logical favorite after narrow losses in her last two start. However, those races were at Fanduel. She had never shown that kind of ability in her previous local races. But maybe it was Victor Santiago in her irons. Santiago will be aboard here locally for the first time. The pace will set up. Can run by them all. 1-SANITARIUM is an interesting runner. He’s making only his second start and he’s a six-year-old. But he did run well in his debut and he could be even better this time around.

5-EVEN THE WIND has the perfect running style to take advantage of what should be a contested early pace. Winner of two of last three will be sitting near the back of the pack, waiting for his rivals to tire on the front end. Figures to swoop on by late. 7-ALL CHOKED UP has had more turf success than any of his rivals. He likes the front end. However, he could face plenty of early company up there. That could compromise his chances. 3-HAY MOON was a daylight winner in his turf debut but his chances were compromised in last by a terrible start. He was never able to display his good speed. Got claimed from that race by a barn that traditionally does well with those they claim. Loveberry in the irons could be the icing on the cake. Wakes up big time. 

 7-LAKE MILLS is r dropping to meet easier. He won only one of his sixteen local races but most were against better and he still finished third seven times. He certainly figures with these. 1-MON AMIE FUZZIE will be coming late. Stablemate of top choice finished third in last three. Could be poised for better. 4-Z U SOON needed last. He was facing better while making his first start of the year. Should perform better with the class drop and a recent race under his belt.

4-MAQUMAT goes for his third in a row. He won three of last four. He’s capable of wiring the field or coming from off the pace. Could be tough either way. 1-RISKY BOY has been in too tough since getting claimed by this barn but he’s dropping back to the right level for this race. He finished in the money in 17 of his 25 races over the last two years. Could get back to competitive efforts with the class drop.  6-CHARLIE LIGHTNING is another in great form. He won three of his seven races this year and finished second another three times. We can be sure that he’ll be on or right off the lead throughout. 

It’s not like 2-COWBOY JUSTICE is a lock. You have to wonder if he is ready off the layoff. His drills have been ok but came at a training center so you don’t really know who else is training there. He does boast the highest speed figures of any in here but he hasn’t raced since November and his barn hasn’t won with their last 11 runners coming off similar layoffs. Would think that he wins this if he’s ready but there is no guarantee that he is. Slim pick. Like the form of 1-MAN ON ATTACK. He has speed, the rail, a good speed rider and success at the distance. Will have to be caught. 7-PROFESSOR HIGGINS flies late. He’s been in great form and finished out of the money only one time on turf. He was claimed from last but figures to have continued success for his new barn.

4-MYSTIC STORM faces her easiest test ever.  She owns sufficient speed to sit right off the pace and she’s been showing enough staying power to put away the rest. 3-SHEZA HOOT will be coming late. She appears in better form than her foes. However, she likes to come from far behind and there might not be enough pace to support that kind of late move. 5-RUNNERS HEAT is in poor form but finally takes a much-needed drop in class. The company she’s been facing are tougher than they look on paper. This mare might awaken in this spot. 

The front end of this race could be a very busy place. I have to figure that a runner capable of closing could have the best chance. 5-FACCIA BELLA could seem to fit that description the best. She has improved greatly since moving to the Block barn. Her sixth-place finish in the $100,000 Lady Canterbury last out was better than it looked. It was part of a multiple-runner photo and she only lost by a couple lengths. This company seems considerable easier. Can run by late. 8-CAT ATTACK will run as fast as she can for as long as she can and just might be able to put away the rest of the speed and wire the field. The other Block-trained runner, 6-MISS RIVER RAT must also be considered. She has been a different runner since adding blinkers. In her last two starts at similar distances, she had a win and a neck loss. Unlike her stablemate, she’ll never be far off the pace. 4-MOON RAY could be an interesting runner. It’s been a long time since she showed much but this is possibly the easiest field she has ever met. She won a Group 3 at Chantilly in 2022 so you know she has/had the ability. Worth watching. 

1-POLICY OPTION was claimed from last by the top barn. In that race he finished second but he was making only his second start of the year. Late runner should get enough pace ahead of him. Runs by in the stretch. 4-SHADY MCGEE took the lead midstretch and was able to hold off the late run of top choice. That race was longer which might have favored top choice more but both of them are likely to be racing near the back of the pack early and they could wind up dueling the length of the stretch in this one. 7-WICKED SUPRISE looks like the best speed. He tends to tire late and last nine-furlong contest was probably too long for him but he could be far more difficult to catch with the cut back in distance.

Race 6:  5 - 2 - 1

Late Pick 4 Ticket:  2,5 / 3,4,7 / 2,4,5,6,8 / 1,3,4,7  ($60)

#5 Realignment (3-1) has only had one turf start, but it was a solid one at Ellis and should improve 2nd time on the green for talented trainer Block. Hoping he’s not too far back and makes a big run in the stretch…he has a nice future.

Race 7:  7 - 4 - 3

You have to squint a bit to see why #7 Top Look (6-1) is my first choice in this $5k claimer. The weather this week in Chicago is excellent, and Top Look has only one lifetime start on fast dirt. It was her best effort by far, and I see no reason why she can’t replicate that today. Not only that, she’ll show early speed, which is very important in a cheaper claiming race.

Race 8:  5 - 6 - 8

Aforementioned Trainer Chris Block has done wonders with #5 Faccia Bella (2-1), who is much improved by every measure. Now, she has to prove she can do it going long instead of just sprinting. There’s enough early speed to set up her closing kick.

Race 9:  1 - 3 - 7

#1 Policy Option (5-2) is a bit of an unusual claim for Trainer Rivelli, who is not known for his 2-turn turf horses. But this horse has back-class and numbers that would win this race with the right trip and slight improvement. I would not take too short a price in this competitive field, but is the horse to beat.