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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Thu August 22nd, 2024

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Jim's Picks

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 2:10 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
4 She Stopped Short - 5-1 2 Rogue Diamond - 5-2 3 Notiptoni - 7-2

Good field of babies kick things off as there are numerous in with a shot. 4-SHE STOPPED SHORT had a tough debut as she drew the rail and was immediately shut off at the break. She was working very well leading into that race and I expect she will show much more in here. 2-ROGUE DIAMOND debuts for Rivelli as this barn has been sharp with their youngsters all meet. She has a consistent work pattern an I expect to see early speed in here. 3-NOTIPTONI has run a pair of solid races to open her career as she was able to rate and run on late in her last. She may be able to let this race come to her and then look to run on late.

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 2:38 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
6 I Did the Math - 5-2 8 Isabella's Beauty - 9-2 4 Irish Spark - 3-1

No standout in here but this race does look to be very competitive. Off a pair of good races at Fairmount, 6-I DID THE MATH should be able to close into the mix late. She has been the most consistent in this field as Santiago looks to be a good fit in the saddle. The main issue is the break as she will need to get away cleanly from the gate. 8-ISABELLA'S BEAUTY adds Lasix off her debut as she took a lot of action in that spot. She showed speed in the race before giving way in the lane but may have bled in that race. The Lasix addition and outside draw could allow for her to clear and never look back. 4-IRISH SPARK steps back up but this looks to be a great spot to make that move as she comes off a pair of third place efforts against open company in recent starts. Look for her to stalk the leaders early and look to run on late.

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 3:06 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
5 Even the Wind - 2-1 2 Lawmaker - 10-1 4 Bourbon Life - 4-1

Even though only seven horses are in here, the pace looks like it will be honest upfront. Looking to 5-EVEN THE WIND on top as he comes off a fine victory in his last and takes the logical step up today. With 3-4 likely to push things along early, expect him to come charging in the lane. 2-LAWMAKER looks to turn things around as he has had a tough 2024 season. If he can get back to the fall form from last year, expect to see him rally late while at a price. 4-BOURBON LIFE is the other looking to close late. He ran a solid race on the grass three back and has seemed to be a good fit for Felix in his last couple of starts as well.

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 3:34 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
1 Mon Ami Fuzzie - 9-2 6 Alpine Ghost - 7-2 3 Maligator - 5-2

A very competitive bunch here but only a couple in who could show speed. Hoping they battle as I'll look to 1-MON AMI FUZZIE to track the early pace and try to get the jump on the late closers. The distance does suit but the track may not as he still looks for his first Hawthorne score. Going to need 5-1 to make it worthwhile but you may get that in here. 6-ALPINE GHOST does like this Hawthorne strip as he figures to be committed to the front and will just need to try to outkick Hatchet Creek to the top. If he can clear, he has the potential to steal this race. 3-MALIGATOR is still running some respectable races as he drops to the lowest level in some time. Look for him to need that pace to close into as he figures to pick off horses late.

Hawthorne Race 5

Post Time 4:02 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
7 Jolie Ruler - 5-1 6 Charlie Lightning - 5-2 4 Maqamat - 9-5

It seems like it will be tough to defeat Maqamat but maybe it can be done here as I'll look to a new shooter in 7-JOLIE RULER for  this race. This is the mare taking on the boys who gets a big break in weight. She has tactical speed and has been excellent at Hawthorne as well. 6-CHARLIE LIGHTNING will likely be committed to the front as he was a game winner in his last. If he is able to clear early, let's see if he can steal one. 4-MAQAMAT has won his last couple as the heavy favorite and will take action once again. He should be in a good stalking spot as well but with some others that can push things along early, it could make things a bit tougher on his today.

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 4:30 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
2 Cowboy Justice (GB) - 9-5 7 Professor Higgins - 6-1 5 Realignment - 3-1

A nice allowance bunch in here as it could be a bunched up field in this spot. Hoping 2-COWBOY JUSTICE can rate close early and look to run on in the lane. He comes in off the layoff for this race but regular rider Declan Cannon comes along as well. He is working forwardly toward the return and runs protected in this spot. 7-PROFESSOR HIGGINS was a good claim out of his last as he rallied late in a turf sprint. He stretched back out in here but should be able to also sit a bit closer early and close in the lane. 5-REALIGNMENT broke his maiden at first asking before shifting to the turf for his last. He could sit the closest to the early pace and look to get the jump on the closers late.

Hawthorne Race 8

Post Time 5:26 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
6 Miss River Rat - 4-1 5 Faccia Bella - 2-1 4 Moon Ray (FR) - 6-1

The question in here is if the one Block can upset the other as 6-MISS RIVER RAT is likely to be the longer shot of the two. She has finished ITM in all six starts on the meet and looks to sit just off the early pace in this race. Expect her stalk and try to outkick her stablemate to the wire. 5-FACCIA BELLA has the class edge it appears but I tend to wonder if sprinting may be more her thing. She's going to rate back early and look to close late as Cohen should be getting after her in the lane. 4-MOON RAY could get a perfect tracking trip as she looks to boost some confidence. Gutierrez has had success at Hawthorne in the past and this one may be a price.

Hawthorne Race 9

Post Time 5:54 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
3 Niles Channel - 7-2 4 Shady McGee (IRE) - 9-5 1 Policy Option - 5-2

Not a ton of pace in the race as I think 3-NILES CHANNEL will be able to rate close early. He shifted to Minnesota for a couple of races to get turf and didn't show much there before coming back to Hawthorne today. If he can stalk the early pace of Wicked Surprise, he could pounce in the lane. 4-SHADY MCGEE was a good winner in his last as he moved early and ran on late. That was going longer than today's race as he will just need something to close into. 1-POLICY OPTION is another that will look for pace to close into as he was left to chase Shady McGee last out. Last time Shady got the jump on him. Let's see if he can turn the tables in here.