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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Fri August 23rd, 2024

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Emily's Analysis

Del Mar Race 1

Post Time 5:00 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Both #6 EIGHT CLAP and #7 ALWAYS ON CAY find an upgrade from the 7/27 race, a day that like many in July favored runners forwardly placed and inside. As far as the "drop" in claiming tag, the par suggests closer to a lateral move.

Del Mar Race 2

Post Time 5:30 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

The pace scenario should be honest despite the "Snowflake" Contention rating, a scenario that suits #6 EVENING SUN in this spot. The connections returning in a claiming event, though not a giveaway for $50k suggests some intent placed to compete where they could at the same time lose the horse.

#1 WHATMAKESSAMMYRUN is worth a mention off the strong BTL place finish last out he will be majorly tested with another quick turnaround and change in distance, something prior connections have avoided since 2021. 

Del Mar Race 3

Post Time 6:00 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#1 NOBLE RUNNER shows up as a slightly new face at this level for a hot trending barn. She showed run in debut from the rail though not as effective earlier this month with the outside post WIDE trip against the profile.

#5 BRUINS MASTERY is worthy of another look at this level given some conditioning with the recent longer layoff lines. A similar angle with #10 NICELY CURVED in a third start off the layoff and cutback in distance could turnout to be the right move. 

Del Mar Race 5

Post Time 7:00 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Both #2 SEPTEMBER MAGIC and #7 A TOAST TO LANIE could get attention coming off wins and strong speed figures though had BIAS and HOT in their favor, potential underlay factors. 

#3 RUTHLESS RUA looks to hold some intent shipping in first off the claim and in for the bonus while protected at the same time. A similar angle with #1 BEAUTY N THE BOLT off the freshening and reset protected on this circuit with the bonus in play. 

#9 MISTY MUPPET is the wild card and one that showed improvement with racing last season and brings in the most upside off those juvenile efforts into her sophomore debut. 

Del Mar Race 7

Post Time 8:00 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#3 OUBABE could be dismissed off the recent running line and present value in this spot. He was competitive at this level in the past and picked up the win coming off the layoff back in April. He can improve in this second start off the layoff and even with the move to the dirt, a move to keep them protected, and win rider U. Rispoli back aboard. 

Del Mar Race 8

Post Time 8:30 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

The finale could see some chaos with many capable and runners with buried form worth a stab. #3 VRONSKY FEINT being one of those. She ran under similar conditions back in the first part of the meet and had a legit EX -EXCUSE that day and back numbers that fit on par. #9 CHASINGSERENDIPITY did not have a full excuse with the trip though upgraded making a WIDE MOVE X_BIAS with the colder board and should be the time to improve second off the layoff.