Handicapper Tips & Picks

While respectfully, #3 ROYAL MENDE should be in the right spot to compete and a reasonable favorite at that, the recent visuals, class drop and pattern of NO_FINISH will look elsewhere especially at the projected shorter number.

#2 GIANNO has some questions on distance (similar with ROYAL MENDE) cutting back today though at the same time should be able to compete following the maiden win and placed reasonable to take on winner with form this season that fits strongly with this field. #4 FRISSON can be upgraded in their second start of the season and on FLOW setting Fast pace while WIDE outside and between horses, not ideal positioning (TACTIC-) overall. He returns with that race under his belt, lateral change in par and rider change to suggest intent.

Worth noting #7 PONCHO ATTACK from the FRISSON common race back on 8/4 and made a CLOSE for show (and GALLOP+) though did have the race FLOW on his side. His stablemate #9 BRUCE ATTACK should handle the TURF from a physical standpoint though has a biggest test with class and must, must get faster to compete. 

#4 WE MISS ARLINGTON should have no excuses today holding a massive edge on class and tactical speed in today’s group. Those factors being obvious will be built into the price and not without a chance to go off shorter than the fair ML suggests.

#5 CHAMPAGNE MIKE could keep the number fair as the likely alternative. He also takes a massive drop and the right move looking to find where he fits. He ran a bang up race on debut (B+) and 76 figure that sits in line with WE MISS ARLINGTON though did not catch a strong field on the day and has been exposed since in allowance company.

#1 STOLICH is not far off those two on his best day and this would be the time for him to pop with a top effort – second start since the barn change and subtle distance change with the added ground from the 5.5f earlier this month. 

#1 ALL IN SYNC fits well in this spot and appears well placed first off the Vanden Berg claim. He comes into this race with better form than what might appear “on paper” given the recent running lines and finishing positions though has been racing against much tougher, considerable higher race par this season and even going back to the layoff return starting off 2023. While he fits and does appear intended for a surface switch back to the turf, he can handle the dirt should that come into play. He has the edge on class and figures over stablemate #6 MCVICKER one that can assist keeping the pace honest and best with the LONE trips back in the first part of the season or with the PERFECT trip as the races came off the turf back in July, something MTO #9 ONASA will be looking for to compete today.

#5 MISTER KELLY will give up recency in the first start back in 341 days though does not return with a class drop as a positive and back to top form for C. Winebaugh and regular rider L. Colon fits right in as a contender and can even present the “speed of the speed” this race and what looks to be a murky puzzle handicapping pace.

O. Mojica will shift from #7 STAR KANOO (one that could find the right group to compete right back) for #8 INTO THE SUNRISE one that wheels right back for this race with the class drop looking for the first win on the year. INTO THE SUNRISE has also been looking for the right level though one that has some back class with his most “recent” win in a higher level N2 OC turf sprint at Saratoga and going back to his juvenile/sophomore season racing in stakes company. 

#3 Z U SOON has improved with each race since the long layoff return on 8/4 and wheeling right back in a week could suggest positive intent. He looked to need (PREP) the return and gained fitness as part of the DUEL X_FLOW something that carried last week with the 10 point figure improvement as progressive OptixGRADE where another move forward could be in the cards with regular rider A. Reyes back aboard.

Looking at the OptixPLOT, there is a Sun Contention though paired with a lower SpeedRate, a scenario that should assist runners in Quad I such as Z U SOON and even morning line favorite #2 ALYANAABI though shifting value of those two to #6 UNCAPTURED PULSE one with form this season and lack of “red” in the Past 3 Runlines.

#5 FIRST MASAMUNE has turned in some of the higher figures and competitive races both around two turns and the 6f distance so no knock there with the change. He will give up some recency after 42-days off, something that could go either way – he could benefit from the freshening and pop with a top effort picking up the very belated win, or the time between starts could suggest he is “over the top” from the racing this season; the board and visuals clues in the paddock will be key in this scenario. 

#1 BLAZE BEAUTY has a longshot look in here. Overall she does hold any edge, though fits with today’s par, a lateral move for the FD races this season and lower par than the allowance races starting off the meet. She held her own on 6/8 over the turf on a WEATHER impacted day with prior and light rain in running making a strong CLOSE and GALLOP and visuals going back to her days suggest she is better at a route of ground. Her Standard form on the Plot sets her in line with #5 GETOUTOFMYKITCHEN and BLAZE BEAUTY will be much higher of the two on the board.

#2 SURPRISE ME AGAIN does not take as much creativity to get to and the connections are easy to have confidence in. She has not shown progression this season and not enough to compete at the allowance level making this drop reasonable here. The distance change is an unknown though lightly raced and with the change in class could easily take to the conditions.

Her C. Block stablemate #9 DIAMOND’S JOY will also stretch back out and back under the conditions from 7/18 when holding place staying on as the BOS over the main track. All that said, she would not be a “surprise” though no value in the favorite role lacking an edge in this group from speed figures, class and pace with #7 ANNA AFTER MIDNITE sharing a similar front running style drawn to her inside and with J. Felix taking over on #8 CATHOLIC SUE (and coming back from a Very Fast race shape on 8/11) they could be up in the first flight mixing things up and keeping the pace honest. 

The impact of the pace should hold some say on the outcome; looking at the OptixPLOT the Sun Contention is paired with the higher 86 SpeedRate – a test for front runners that includes #5 CATEGORY TEN and #6 MCQUEEN to look for alternatives.

Following the ML, #7 HOPPIN JOHN should have pace to target and make his run though could concede first run on others and based on the shape, the size of the Square indicating closing kick, he does not have an edge over the other closers primarily #4 ATKINS especially if they hold longer odds than #2 GOLD SMOKE.

The Plot is neutral on #1 BOOGIE BODE, tough to knock on pace and in terms of form, class and speed figures he fits on par as he makes his first start off the claim last out at Ellis Park and the connections patiently waiting out their “jail” time (40-days) to make this circuit switch.

Today’s event is a much better spot all around for #1 PARKLAND on this circuit and with the race under his belt for the second off the layoff. He was tasked not only giving up recency though had a higher race par even with the surface switch that played against him more than the conventional dirt. They keep with the intention towards the grass with today’s placement and back in two weeks with a rider change and much softer par that has the where he fits to compete.

Trip wise PARKLAND could work the right trip from the rail. He has enough early speed to make the lead (Standard Q1) though given the complexion of this field, he could stalk inside with a tracking trip with the Surface/Distance position on the Plot, tracking from Quad II – a position and trip similar to #8 MONSTERONTHEMIDWAY and projected longer odds of the two.

#6 SAILING SOLO should take up his customary role on the lead (Q1 Square) and the edge over the Circles, #3 LAVENDER EARL and #4 REMEMBER THE MAINE. He should have no excuse with his runstyle, though did not have any excuse with a similar trip and Very Slow early/late pace coming up short on 6/15. Perhaps the layoff was the “excuse” on the day, though they return with another 75-day gap here forced to wait with a couple surface scratches between starts.

The race shape is noted for #7 BATTLE SCARS one that should have pace to target (Q4 Square) and some intent with the class drop. With that said, they will drop off a win and 96-day layoff something that does come with moderate reservations though not overly concerning in for $20k and the meet starting to hit its finale for racehorses. #5 MCMONEY should also have pace to target and the edge on current form of those noted runners as he has remained on the main track, something that carries to #2 STORM’S REFLECTION one that requires and finds price compensation with the class rise.  

Will be interesting how this race is bet as #2 HURTS SO BAD could get attention coming off a win earlier this month and #6 RUSSIAN TO WIN come down from the ML with the change in class, returning to Hawthorne for the connections and back with O. Mojica. That scenario could see #3 RACARINO drift (or hold the ML) and on a progressive race-to-race pattern third off in this spot. The recent finishing position could also see #4 PADDY’S HOUSE overlooked and finding the right value to make their case here. The 7-2 is short though there are things to like as they take a lateral change in race par for this even, though subtle trips and lacking pace, should find a different dynamic here.

All the ML talk to set up #1 TONY’S MORNING LINE one that looks to have some intent returning to Hawthorne with C. Emigh back aboard. They were paired back on 6/15, a race that looks average “on paper” though visually BTL and keying off that effort cam back to win in their next start, the 7/21 race under today’s conditions.

#5 AZOI could hold the edge of the shippers despite exiting the recent MCL events. He has held his form, competitive races at the level with consistent figures that stack up on par. That could present the edge over #6 ANGER RISING and #8 MANDALORIAN given the events those two exit while giving up recency on different paths into this race.

In terms of the local runners, the edge to the 8/8 event for both #3 STREET FEST and #4 LICENSE TO STEAL over the others with races here this season. Tough to make a strong contender case for #2 YOUNG MISCHIEF though is one that can be left in the mix at the longer odds that should give an honest showing in this spot and hold his own in this group. 

Some overnight rain on Tuesday night hopefully was just some much needed rain after a dry spell as five races are carded on the grass for Thursday. Giving the nod in the turf opener to 7-PONCHO ATTACK as he has been a different racehorse on the turf. He rallied last while facing better in his last and with a pair in here with speed, let's see if he can close quickly once again. 8-NAGY AND DA BEARS is one of those with speed who got his maiden score last out. He will be on the gas from the start as he could look to clear and try to wire this bunch. 4-FRISSON chased before giving way in his last as he's worth another look in here. If the pace is contested upfront, let's see if he can move forwardly in the lane.

There's going to be no value but doesn't this have to be the spot for 4-WE MISS ARLINGTON to win? He ran well in his last while facing better and now gets a break in weight and should be in a perfect stalking spot. 2-SENDEMDOWNTHEROAD poses the biggest threat to upset as he has speed and has to look to try to steal this one. Mojica has been the regular rider as he should be on full send mode. 5-CHAMPAGNE MIKE shortens back up as he takes the class drop today. He may be able to chase the pace in here as he looks for a confidence boost.

There's some pace in here which may set things up for a nice stalking trip for 3-CYCLONE ATTACK. He was a good winner against Illinois allowance runners two back before taking on a solid field of open turf sprinters in the Molaro last out. With this class drop today he should be sitting in a good spot to pounce at the top of the lane. 1-ALL IN SYNC makes his first Hawthorne start as he races for the new connections today. He will be closing from a bit further back in here as he comes in off a solid drill into today's race. 2-GRAND HIDEAWAY steps up a bit in class off a good race in his last. This is only his third start of the year as he figures to continue to round into form.

Running fresh could be the key in here for 5-FIRST MASAMUNE as he shortens back up and finds a winning spot. Slevinsky remains in the saddle which is a plus as a return to the race he posted on April 13 off the break will be enough to win. 6-UNCAPTURED PULSE has been in solid form since the May 19 start and continues to race well. That improvement has coincided with the swap to Ulloa in the saddle. Expect a solid effort in here. 2-ALYANAABI has some speed as he starts for the new barn in here. The distance suits as his consistency should make him a strong contender.

Taking a little shot here as I'm hoping for continued improvement out of 10-CATHOLIC SUE as she makes her third straight start on the grass. She ran on in her last in a race where the speed carried to the wire. With a course that shouldn't be quite as firm let's see if she can close some ground late. 9-DIAMONDS JOY is the horse to beat as she takes the drop in class back to the level where she finished second two back. She has speed and may look to try to clear from the outside. Let's see if she has any company in here as well. 2-SUPRISE ME AGAIN shifts to the turf for Block as she sprinted on the grass in her debut before a string of recent dirt races. She could rate a bit closer with the stretch to two turns but don't expect her to press her stablemate early in here.

A really interesting race here as horses from multiple levels and locations come together for this spot. It could have been a fluke last out, but the figure that 2-GOLD SMOKE posted in that last start was massive as he made a strong move into the lane and drew clear late. He could very well bounce of that performance but if he is able to repeat it, he could potentially pop at a price in here. 6-MCQUEEN ran a huge race in his maiden score in a race taken off the turf two starts back. He went from that race to a start in the half million West Virginia Derby where he chased before giving way in a race won by a horse that I feel is going to be very good in Dragoon Guard. Look for him to stalk early in here and try to get the jump into the lane. 5-CATEGORY TEN was still looking to work their way through the conditioned $25k company but that race didn't fill as he shifts to this spot. He has been a model of consistency this meet and figures to be right there once again.

Pace makes the race and if Sailing Solo gets loose it may be all over. The key to the entire race may be longshot Lavender Earl as he may pose the only pace threat early. If Earl goes with Solo then it sets things up for 7-BATTLE SCARS to rate and rally late. He ran a good race against allowance runners last out as the addition of blinkers looked to make the difference. Mojica returns in the saddle in here as he may also welcome a course that could possibly have a little give to it. 8-MONSTERONTHEMIDWAY scratched from the stake last Sunday for this spot as he also gets a little class relief. He has been at his best at this distance and is likely to rate a bit closer early than his stablemate. 6-SAILING SOLO is at his best when dictating things on the front end as he figures to go in here. He has a lot of class and just needs to avoid dueling with Lavender Earl early.

Looks like the pace could be honest in here as 4-5 horses could potentially get sent away early. With that in mind, it may set things up for 5-AZOI to rate and run on late. He closed well on the turf at Ellis in his last when in for the tag as he picks up the bug in here and could get overlooked a bit on the class rise. His form has been solid in his last couple as we will see if he can rally in time. 8-MANDALORIAN comes in off the claim at Churchill as he rallied and just missed on the dirt in that spot. He appears to be worth a look on turf or dirt in here as he will take a good amount of action with these. 3-STREET FEST has speed but could have company early. He did sprint away in his last to open up on the front end as he held on late for place. Expect him to go once again and see just how far he can carry that speed.

It took a while for 8-NAGY AND THE BEARS to come into his own but the move to the turf got him headed in the right direction and the turn back to sprints was the icing on the cake. He just scored his maiden victory in his 14^th start but he looks like the only real speed in this race and he just might be able to repeat. 3-ROYAL MENDE is likely to be favored and could live up to expectations. He does own the highest speed figures but those numbers were generated in turf routes. He does have good speed but think top pick will beat him to the draw. 7-PONCHO ATTACK comes on late. He finished third or better in all his turf sprints. That streak should continue.

4-WE MISS ARLINGTON should be tough off the drop. He always had good speed. At this level he’ll be far harder to catch. 5-CHAMPAGNE MIKE dominated in his career debut at Oaklawn but he has had three races since then and hasn’t beaten a rival in any of them. Drops many levels for this, takes blinkers off, and turns back in distance. He should be far more effective against these foes. 2-SENDEMDOWNTHEROAD owns competitive speed. He just broke his maiden against bottom-level maiden claimers and he doesn’t seem quite as quick as top choice but he’ll probably be leading the second tier early and might be able to stay there throughout.

8-INTO THE SUNRISE hasn’t even finished in the money this year but this is quite possibly the easiest field he has ever faced. This field is filled with front-end type and he might never get close to the lead but it’s also possible that he’ll just outclass them and put the rest of the speed away. 1-ALL IN SYNC, like top pick, is another intriguing runner. This late multiple stakes winner is another lacking current success but he won a $100,000 turf stakes a couple years ago and they thought enough of his ability to test him in multiple graded stakes. He’s been changing barns frequently, most recently through a claim by this barn. Might be able to wake up for them. 4-NOVGORAD THE GREAT never won on the lawn in nine starts but he does own some of the highest turf “figs” of any in here. Could come alive with the class drop and the turn back in distance.

6-UNCAPTURED PULSE isn’t quick but he is one of the quicker members of this field. He finished second versus similar in his last start. It’s possible that he’ll be sent right to the lead today. 4-IMPERIAL MOMENT improved quite a bit when dropped to this level in last and came on late to finish second. There isn’t a lot of speed to set up for a big closer but he is still likely to show some late run. 2-ALYANAABI was favored in last, over top choice, but he never really fired. He did get claimed from that race. He might be the only one quicker than top choice if he breaks alertly.

5-GETOUTOFMYKITCHEN should get an ideal pace. She’s had two turf races and closed very well in both of them. Her previous efforts were against better runners. The likely favorite of this race tends to run out of gas late. This filly can fly by in the stretch. 9-DIAMONDS JOY seems to hold a considerable edge in the speed department. Like top choice she’s dropping in for a tag. She did finish second in her lone claiming race, a dirt route. She does tend to tire late but her lone victory was a wire-to-wire turf win going a mile. She will have to be caught. 2-SUPRISE ME AGAIN is a lightly-raced runner who will be trying a turf route for the first time. She’s the stablemate of Diamonds Joy. She didn’t show a lot in her lone turf race but she could be more of a threat with some experience.

6-MCQUEEN faced a daunting task when shipped to West Virginia to take on rivals in the Grade 3 West Virginia Derby and he simply wasn’t up to it. He had just broken his maiden here in his previous start. But he will be taking on somewhat softer in this spot. Most of his rivals here had faced low-level claimers at some point. We don’t have his true measure yet, but he does seem to belong at this level right now. 5-CATEGORY TEN is a tease. He won a pair early in the meet and has looked like the one to beat in every race since. But he keeps coming up short. He was favored at this level and finished second. Might do the same thing again. 4-ATKINS possesses some of the highest speed figures of any in here but they were generated against far easier claimers. In fact, he was claimed from four of the last five times he ran for a tag. He had some trouble in last, his turf debut, and finished far back but he could easily bounce back with the move back to dirt.

6-SAILING SOLO has to be caught. This speedy multiple stakes winner was narrowly beaten in his first start of the meet. That race took place over two months ago but he has continued to train well in the interim. He won eight of his 19 turf races including four of six at this distance. Could notch another victory today. 7-BATTLE SCARS takes an interesting class drop. He beat allowance company, as the favorite, in his first start of the meet. However, that race took place in May and it was five weeks before his nest drill. He’s been working well since, however, and he gets the top turf trainer and the top pilot aboard again today. 1-PARKLAND is the sleeper. He’s been racing on main tracks lately but think he’s far better on turf. Some of his earlier figures compare well to those of most of his rivals. Maybe the move back to the lawn will wake him up.

6-RUSSIAN TO WIN didn’t handle the lawn in last despite his pedigree. He was a daylight winner here at this level back in April but was then shipped to Iowa, to meet better, with only meager success. But the drop back to the right level and the return to the right surface could wake him up in a big way. 2-HURTS SO BAD could be the best of the speed. He looked good winning last, mostly on the lead. If not heavily pressured early, he could have a repeat performance. 3-RACARINO drops once more. He was favored in last over slightly tougher but had to settle for third place. Maybe this additional drop will do the trick.

Can 2-YOUNG MISCHIEF surprise? He races for a barn that hasn’t had all that much turf experience and the same holds for his rider but this runner is royally bred for turf routes. So far all of his races have been turf sprints and he hasn’t been all that successful but he is sure to be one of the early leaders with the stretch in distance and his turf pedigree might take hold. 3-STREET FEST has had two good races. He finished third in his debut and came back with a strong second-place finish. He displayed far better speed in last and held on well. He might prove to be the one to catch today. 5-AZOI moves up in class but he showed a strong closing move in last, his turf debut, and the probable brisk pace of this race could play right into his strong suit.

Race 6:  4 - 5 - 6

Pick 4 Ticket: 4,5,6 / 6,7 / 1,2,3,6 / 5,6,8   ($36)

Big-dropper #6 McQueen (7-2) was last seen in a G3, and now drops down. He actually ran okay for at least ½ of the race, running hard into quick fractions vs. MUCH tougher before giving it up. I’m slightly concerned about the lack of works since then, but this field is beatable. He’ll be sitting off the speed just to his inside and show his class in the lane.

Race 7:  7 - 6 - 5

With a minimum of two early speed horses to his inside, #7 Battle Scars (5-2) should get the pace he needs to close into as the best come-from-behind horse on paper by far. He’s been carefully handled to Trainer Block who goes to jockey Mojica today….he won on Battle Scars in his last start. Repeat effort?

Race 8:  6 - 3 - 2

#6 Russian to Win (6-1) has been off for over 2 months since a rare turf start. If you look at the gray’s dirt numbers, he’s plenty good to win today if he fires even a little bit. I like the outer post as Mojica can break and make some decisions…should not be too far off the speed. 

Race 9:  6 - 8 - 5

Assuming this race stays on turf, it’s a toughie. I’m not impressed with the horses that have been running lately on the turf over the oval, so I’ll go with a “fresh face”, #6 Anger Rising (10-1). Trainer Block has given this VERY well-bred 4yo a break since his Feb. run in New Orleans. Clearly, he’s got some issues/maturing to do. But he’s been working well, Felix is in the irons (shows confidence), and has been working forwardly. He’s a real wildcard in the race, but if takes money on the toteboard, look out.