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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Thu August 29th, 2024

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Jim's Picks

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 2:10 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
7 Poncho Attack - 4/1 8 Nagy and Da Bears - 8/1 4 Frisson - 7/2

Some overnight rain on Tuesday night hopefully was just some much needed rain after a dry spell as five races are carded on the grass for Thursday. Giving the nod in the turf opener to 7-PONCHO ATTACK as he has been a different racehorse on the turf. He rallied last while facing better in his last and with a pair in here with speed, let's see if he can close quickly once again. 8-NAGY AND DA BEARS is one of those with speed who got his maiden score last out. He will be on the gas from the start as he could look to clear and try to wire this bunch. 4-FRISSON chased before giving way in his last as he's worth another look in here. If the pace is contested upfront, let's see if he can move forwardly in the lane.

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 2:38 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
4 We Miss Arlington - 1/1 2 Sendemdowntheroad - 5/1 5 Champagne Mike - 7/2

There's going to be no value but doesn't this have to be the spot for 4-WE MISS ARLINGTON to win? He ran well in his last while facing better and now gets a break in weight and should be in a perfect stalking spot. 2-SENDEMDOWNTHEROAD poses the biggest threat to upset as he has speed and has to look to try to steal this one. Mojica has been the regular rider as he should be on full send mode. 5-CHAMPAGNE MIKE shortens back up as he takes the class drop today. He may be able to chase the pace in here as he looks for a confidence boost.

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 3:06 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
3 Cyclone Attack - 8/1 1 All in Sync - 7/2 2 Grand Hideaway - 6/1

There's some pace in here which may set things up for a nice stalking trip for 3-CYCLONE ATTACK. He was a good winner against Illinois allowance runners two back before taking on a solid field of open turf sprinters in the Molaro last out. With this class drop today he should be sitting in a good spot to pounce at the top of the lane. 1-ALL IN SYNC makes his first Hawthorne start as he races for the new connections today. He will be closing from a bit further back in here as he comes in off a solid drill into today's race. 2-GRAND HIDEAWAY steps up a bit in class off a good race in his last. This is only his third start of the year as he figures to continue to round into form.

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 3:34 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
5 First Masamune - 3/1 6 Uncaptured Pulse - 5/1 2 Alyanaabi - 9/5

Running fresh could be the key in here for 5-FIRST MASAMUNE as he shortens back up and finds a winning spot. Slevinsky remains in the saddle which is a plus as a return to the race he posted on April 13 off the break will be enough to win. 6-UNCAPTURED PULSE has been in solid form since the May 19 start and continues to race well. That improvement has coincided with the swap to Ulloa in the saddle. Expect a solid effort in here. 2-ALYANAABI has some speed as he starts for the new barn in here. The distance suits as his consistency should make him a strong contender.

Hawthorne Race 5

Post Time 4:02 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
8 Catholic Sue - 10/1 9 Diamonds Joy - 9/5 2 Suprise Me Again - 7/2

Taking a little shot here as I'm hoping for continued improvement out of 10-CATHOLIC SUE as she makes her third straight start on the grass. She ran on in her last in a race where the speed carried to the wire. With a course that shouldn't be quite as firm let's see if she can close some ground late. 9-DIAMONDS JOY is the horse to beat as she takes the drop in class back to the level where she finished second two back. She has speed and may look to try to clear from the outside. Let's see if she has any company in here as well. 2-SUPRISE ME AGAIN shifts to the turf for Block as she sprinted on the grass in her debut before a string of recent dirt races. She could rate a bit closer with the stretch to two turns but don't expect her to press her stablemate early in here.

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 4:30 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
2 Gold Smoke - 5/1 6 McQueen - 7/2 5 Category Ten - 9/5

A really interesting race here as horses from multiple levels and locations come together for this spot. It could have been a fluke last out, but the figure that 2-GOLD SMOKE posted in that last start was massive as he made a strong move into the lane and drew clear late. He could very well bounce of that performance but if he is able to repeat it, he could potentially pop at a price in here. 6-MCQUEEN ran a huge race in his maiden score in a race taken off the turf two starts back. He went from that race to a start in the half million West Virginia Derby where he chased before giving way in a race won by a horse that I feel is going to be very good in Dragoon Guard. Look for him to stalk early in here and try to get the jump into the lane. 5-CATEGORY TEN was still looking to work their way through the conditioned $25k company but that race didn't fill as he shifts to this spot. He has been a model of consistency this meet and figures to be right there once again.

Hawthorne Race 7

Post Time 4:58 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
7 Battle Scars - 5/2 8 Monsteronthemidway - 9/2 6 Sailing Solo - 9/5

Pace makes the race and if Sailing Solo gets loose it may be all over. The key to the entire race may be longshot Lavender Earl as he may pose the only pace threat early. If Earl goes with Solo then it sets things up for 7-BATTLE SCARS to rate and rally late. He ran a good race against allowance runners last out as the addition of blinkers looked to make the difference. Mojica returns in the saddle in here as he may also welcome a course that could possibly have a little give to it. 8-MONSTERONTHEMIDWAY scratched from the stake last Sunday for this spot as he also gets a little class relief. He has been at his best at this distance and is likely to rate a bit closer early than his stablemate. 6-SAILING SOLO is at his best when dictating things on the front end as he figures to go in here. He has a lot of class and just needs to avoid dueling with Lavender Earl early.

Hawthorne Race 9

Post Time 5:54 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
5 Azoi - 5/1 8 Mandalorian - 5/2 3 Street Fest - 7/2

Looks like the pace could be honest in here as 4-5 horses could potentially get sent away early. With that in mind, it may set things up for 5-AZOI to rate and run on late. He closed well on the turf at Ellis in his last when in for the tag as he picks up the bug in here and could get overlooked a bit on the class rise. His form has been solid in his last couple as we will see if he can rally in time. 8-MANDALORIAN comes in off the claim at Churchill as he rallied and just missed on the dirt in that spot. He appears to be worth a look on turf or dirt in here as he will take a good amount of action with these. 3-STREET FEST has speed but could have company early. He did sprint away in his last to open up on the front end as he held on late for place. Expect him to go once again and see just how far he can carry that speed.