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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Thu August 29th, 2024

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Ron's Picks

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 2:10 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
8 Nagy and Da Bears - 8/1 3 Royal Mende - 9/5 7 Poncho Attack - 4/1

It took a while for 8-NAGY AND THE BEARS to come into his own but the move to the turf got him headed in the right direction and the turn back to sprints was the icing on the cake. He just scored his maiden victory in his 14th start but he looks like the only real speed in this race and he just might be able to repeat. 3-ROYAL MENDE is likely to be favored and could live up to expectations. He does own the highest speed figures but those numbers were generated in turf routes. He does have good speed but think top pick will beat him to the draw. 7-PONCHO ATTACK comes on late. He finished third or better in all his turf sprints. That streak should continue.

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 2:38 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
4 We Miss Arlington - 1/1 5 Champagne Mike - 7/2 2 Sendemdowntheroad - 5/1

4-WE MISS ARLINGTON should be tough off the drop. He always had good speed. At this level he’ll be far harder to catch. 5-CHAMPAGNE MIKE dominated in his career debut at Oaklawn but he has had three races since then and hasn’t beaten a rival in any of them. Drops many levels for this, takes blinkers off, and turns back in distance. He should be far more effective against these foes. 2-SENDEMDOWNTHEROAD owns competitive speed. He just broke his maiden against bottom-level maiden claimers and he doesn’t seem quite as quick as top choice but he’ll probably be leading the second tier early and might be able to stay there throughout.

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 3:06 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
8 Into the Sunrise - 9/2 1 All in Sync - 7/2 4 Novgorod the Great - 9/5

8-INTO THE SUNRISE hasn’t even finished in the money this year but this is quite possibly the easiest field he has ever faced. This field is filled with front-end type and he might never get close to the lead but it’s also possible that he’ll just outclass them and put the rest of the speed away. 1-ALL IN SYNC, like top pick, is another intriguing runner. This late multiple stakes winner is another lacking current success but he won a $100,000 turf stakes a couple years ago and they thought enough of his ability to test him in multiple graded stakes. He’s been changing barns frequently, most recently through a claim by this barn. Might be able to wake up for them. 4-NOVGORAD THE GREAT never won on the lawn in nine starts but he does own some of the highest turf “figs” of any in here. Could come alive with the class drop and the turn back in distance.

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 3:34 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
6 Uncaptured Pulse - 5/1 4 Imperial Moment - 4/1 2 Alyanaabi - 9/5

6-UNCAPTURED PULSE isn’t quick but he is one of the quicker members of this field. He finished second versus similar in his last start. It’s possible that he’ll be sent right to the lead today. 4-IMPERIAL MOMENT improved quite a bit when dropped to this level in last and came on late to finish second. There isn’t a lot of speed to set up for a big closer but he is still likely to show some late run. 2-ALYANAABI was favored in last, over top choice, but he never really fired. He did get claimed from that race. He might be the only one quicker than top choice if he breaks alertly.

Hawthorne Race 5

Post Time 4:02 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
5 Getoutofmykitchen - 4/1 9 Diamonds Joy - 9/5 2 Suprise Me Again - 7/2

5-GETOUTOFMYKITCHEN should get an ideal pace. She’s had two turf races and closed very well in both of them. Her previous efforts were against better runners. The likely favorite of this race tends to run out of gas late. This filly can fly by in the stretch. 9-DIAMONDS JOY seems to hold a considerable edge in the speed department. Like top choice she’s dropping in for a tag. She did finish second in her lone claiming race, a dirt route. She does tend to tire late but her lone victory was a wire-to-wire turf win going a mile. She will have to be caught. 2-SUPRISE ME AGAIN is a lightly-raced runner who will be trying a turf route for the first time. She’s the stablemate of Diamonds Joy. She didn’t show a lot in her lone turf race but she could be more of a threat with some experience.

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 4:30 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
6 McQueen - 7/2 5 Category Ten - 9/5 4 Atkins - 8/1

6-MCQUEEN faced a daunting task when shipped to West Virginia to take on rivals in the Grade 3 West Virginia Derby and he simply wasn’t up to it. He had just broken his maiden here in his previous start. But he will be taking on somewhat softer in this spot. Most of his rivals here had faced low-level claimers at some point. We don’t have his true measure yet, but he does seem to belong at this level right now. 5-CATEGORY TEN is a tease. He won a pair early in the meet and has looked like the one to beat in every race since. But he keeps coming up short. He was favored at this level and finished second. Might do the same thing again. 4-ATKINS possesses some of the highest speed figures of any in here but they were generated against far easier claimers. In fact, he was claimed from four of the last five times he ran for a tag. He had some trouble in last, his turf debut, and finished far back but he could easily bounce back with the move back to dirt.

Hawthorne Race 7

Post Time 4:58 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
6 Sailing Solo - 9/5 7 Battle Scars - 5/2 1 Parkland - 8/1

6-SAILING SOLO has to be caught. This speedy multiple stakes winner was narrowly beaten in his first start of the meet. That race took place over two months ago but he has continued to train well in the interim. He won eight of his 19 turf races including four of six at this distance. Could notch another victory today. 7-BATTLE SCARS takes an interesting class drop. He beat allowance company, as the favorite, in his first start of the meet. However, that race took place in May and it was five weeks before his nest drill. He’s been working well since, however, and he gets the top turf trainer and the top pilot aboard again today. 1-PARKLAND is the sleeper. He’s been racing on main tracks lately but think he’s far better on turf. Some of his earlier figures compare well to those of most of his rivals. Maybe the move back to the lawn will wake him up.

Hawthorne Race 8

Post Time 5:26 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
6 Russian to Win - 6/1 2 Hurts So Bad - 4/1 3 Racarino - 5/2

6-RUSSIAN TO WIN didn’t handle the lawn in last despite his pedigree. He was a daylight winner here at this level back in April but was then shipped to Iowa, to meet better, with only meager success. But the drop back to the right level and the return to the right surface could wake him up in a big way. 2-HURTS SO BAD could be the best of the speed. He looked good winning last, mostly on the lead. If not heavily pressured early, he could have a repeat performance. 3-RACARINO drops once more. He was favored in last over slightly tougher but had to settle for third place. Maybe this additional drop will do the trick.

Hawthorne Race 9

Post Time 5:54 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
2 Young Mischief - 15/1 3 Street Fest - 7/2 5 Azoi - 5/1

Can 2-YOUNG MISCHIEF surprise? He races for a barn that hasn’t had all that much turf experience and the same holds for his rider but this runner is royally bred for turf routes. So far all of his races have been turf sprints and he hasn’t been all that successful but he is sure to be one of the early leaders with the stretch in distance and his turf pedigree might take hold. 3-STREET FEST has had two good races. He finished third in his debut and came back with a strong second-place finish. He displayed far better speed in last and held on well. He might prove to be the one to catch today. 5-AZOI moves up in class but he showed a strong closing move in last, his turf debut, and the probable brisk pace of this race could play right into his strong suit.