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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sun September 1st, 2024

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Jim's Picks

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 2:10 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
1 Millard's Smile - 6-5 4 Two Cookie Rule - 4-1 6 Bandit Swanson - 5-2

Conditioned claimers kick off the day with a few in here to contend. We will start with 1-MILLARD'S SMILE as he comes off a game win in his last and races back in a similar spot. He may have to rate a bit closer in here as there's not a ton of pace to chase but he should be running on late. 4-TWO COOKIE RULE is one who could settle closer to the front as he has been solid since stretching out three races back. He's hit the board in half of his 30 Hawthorne starts and figures to be a factor late. 6-BANDIT SWANSON also could rate a bit closer as he drops from an open $10k claimer for this spot. He improved in his last and may be looking for a win and a claim in here.

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 2:38 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
5 Graytana - 8-5 2 Devil - 7-2 4 Ha Ha Gloria (IRE) - 6-1

That was a really big effort out of 5-GRAYTANA in her last and she could easily step up and repeat that performance. She has speed but doesn't need the lead as she may choose to stalk and pounce in the lane. 2-DEVIL is one with speed who will likely get sent away in her first career grass start. She just missed at this level on the dirt in her last as the five furlong distance could suit her well. 4-HA HA GLORIA has found the board in all four turf starts as she was able to get a victory in Minnesota in her last. She may be in a similar spot to Graytana early as those two could look to run on late.

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 3:06 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
5 Babas Gal - 6-1 1 Sapphire Nights - 5-2 4 Accelerating Babe - 6-5

Worried a bit about the drop for the ML favorite as I'll hope for an upset in here. 5-BABAS GAL broke through for the maiden score in her last as she has raced better as the year has progressed. She will get some pace to chase and picks up a strong finisher in Mojica in the saddle. 1-SAPPHIRE NIGHTS has some speed but could have company early as well. She chased and ran on late in her last but loses Slevinsky to the ML choice. That horse is 4-ACCELERATING BABE who looks to be the one to beat on paper but also poses a concern as she drops in class off a good second and voided claim in her last. A new venue for her today but is this a dump race?

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 3:34 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
3 Chiquita Reina - 7-5 7 Ernestina - 4-1 6 Queen Anna T - 3-1

Although the drop looks bigger on paper off her last two starts, it is only marginal for 3-CHIQUITA REINA from the $10k level where she was claimed three back. She has tactical speed in a race that's lacking pace as she looks to rate close early and draw clear late. 7-ERNESTINA ran a decent race against better around two turns on the dirt three back before shifting to the turf. She is back to the dirt and a sprint as she drops to the bottom to possibly look for a win. 6-QUEEN ANNA T also continues to drop which leaves some concern, but her start two back makes her a major player in here. If she can get away well from the gate, she could potentially make the top and never look back.

Hawthorne Race 5

Post Time 4:02 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
4 Chrome Attack - 10-1 7 Madelyn Belle - 8-5 3 Rambert - 5-1

There's a lot of pace in this race which could set things up for the closing move of 4-CHROME ATTACK at a price. She has improved in her three turf starts on the meet, all while at a price. I like that she keeps Cohen in the saddle as she could roll by everyone in the lane. 7-MADELYN BELLE rated and ran on late in her last as that could be the move once again. She has won on the lead before but with others to her inside with speed it may burn her out. A repeat of her last race will make her tough to beat. 3-RAMBERT won that last out on the front end as she made the top and battled to the wire. She's been excellent on the turf throughout her career and could get overlooked at the windows once again.

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 4:30 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
2 Captain's Flag - 5-2 6 Malibu Brad - 2-1 8 Larry's Lunchbox - 4-1

Not much creativity here as the favorites seem to stand out a bit. 2-CAPTAIN'S FLAG was claimed when dropping to this spot in his last as he chased but was outfinished late. With the new connections and second start over the track, look for him to possibly show more speed and try to dictate things on the front end. 6-MALIBU BRAD was the one who ran down Captain's Flag last out as he stalked and closed some late. He should get a similar trip once again and can't be dismissed in here. 8-LARRY'S LUNCHBOX is the other that could be stalking early as he comes back off a slight layoff. The rest could help as he may improve while fresh.

Hawthorne Race 7

Post Time 4:58 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
3 Gavel - 9-2 5 Congrats On Fifty - 3-1 7 American Mayhem - 2-1

A very competitive bunch in here with what looks to be a good amount of early pace. Going to look on top to 3-GAVEL with the hopes that he can rate back just a bit and rally in the lane. He comes off a bit of a layoff and has run well over the Hawthorne main track. Let's see if that form transitions to the turf. 5-CONGRATS ON FIFTY has speed but showed grit when challenged on the grass three starts back. He will be pressing early and has the potential to emerge clear late. 7-AMERICAN MAYHEM has a lot of back class as he makes just his second start of the year. He's another who has been good on the grass and posted a strong figure in his return race last out.

Hawthorne Race 9

Post Time 5:54 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
5 Perfect Manhattan - 5-2 3 Ww Best of Times - 9-2 6 Safecracker Sue - 4-1

Close things out on the turf as this maiden bunch has a good amount of early pace. 5-PERFECT MANHATTAN chased in her last and didn't give way until late as she posted a career best figure. If she can avoid hooking up with 2-WW BEST OF TIMES early in here, she could stalk the speed of that one and look to pounce in the stretch. 6-SAFECRACKER SUE has been a consistent fourth in her last four but may be in a spot to improve today. She will benefit if the top two hook up early as she looks to close some ground in the stretch.