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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sun September 1st, 2024

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Ron's Picks

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 2:10 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
1 Millard's Smile - 6/5 6 Bandit Swanson - 5/2 5 Land Mark Deal - 5/1

1-MILLARD’S SMILE seems most likely. Winner of last was claimed from that race by the top barn and they have a high percentage at claiming like they do at everything else. 6-BANDIT SWANSON drops and adds blinkers. He’s making only his third start of the year. He was trounced in his first start back but noticeably improved in his last. Can show even more at this level. 5-LAND MARK DEAL faces probably the easiest field of his career. He finished third in three of his six races this year and all those efforts were against better. Could provide a mild upset at this level.

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 2:38 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
5 Graytana - 8/5 4 Ha Ha Gloria [IRE] - 6/1 2 Devil - 7/2

5-GRAYTANA jumps into allowance company but she probably deserves the chance after last. She ran away from a decent claiming field full of far more experienced turf runners. She’s only likely to improve from experience. 4-HA HA GLORIA is back from Canterbury where she just broke her maiden. She was here previously and finished second in her two local starts. Plus she also had a second at Santa Anita last year and in Dundalk in Ireland the year before. She’ll be sitting right off the pace. Has a great chance to edge by late, especially if a speed duel develops. 2-DEVIL might be the better of the two Boyce-trained runners in this field. She’s at least the quicker of the two. She’s nearly as quick as top choice. She’ll be making her turf debut but her barn does well with this type runner. 

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 3:06 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
4 Accelerating Babe - 6/5 1 Sapphire Nights - 5/2 6 Hip Hop Emmy - 20/1

After narrow losses in her last two in Iowa, it’s hard to get past 4-ACCELERATING BABE. On the other hand, she’s racing for a different barn, she’s making her first start in 10 weeks, and she’s had only two lackluster drills during her time off. Plus, she dropping in class. She looks like the right horse but be careful about betting the rent. 1-SAPPHIRE NIGHTS is another that has been in decent form and she has been running consistently. She managed to finish in the money in four of her nine races this year. Might be a safer wager. 6-HIP HOP EMMY hasn’t shown much this year but her last race was her best yet in 2024.  Might be ready for an improved effort.

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 3:34 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
3 Chiquita Reina - 7/5 7 Ernestina - 4/1 6 Queen Anna T - 3/1

3-CHIQUITA REINA drops from maiden specials. She hasn’t shown much since getting claimed for $10,000 at Churchill but she does look superior to her rivals at this level. 7-ERNESTINA seems like the only one capable of giving top pick a run for the money. She’s also dropping many levels. Most of her races have been on turf but she did finish a distant second, going long, in her lone dirt appearance. 6-QUEEN ANNA T is the last of the droppers and she’s might be the quickest of the bunch. She finished far back in two of her three starts but she did finish third, at the $20,000 claiming level, at Churchill two races back.

Hawthorne Race 5

Post Time 4:02 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
4 Chrome Attack - 10/1 7 Madelyn Belle - 8/5 2 Frankel Baby - 3/1

4-CHROME ATTACK comes off her best race of the year. She narrowly missed in that spot while chasing the rapid pace. The pace of this race could be even faster and even more heated. She might be able to roll by late. 7-MADELYN BELLE is always the one to beat. She’s had 12 career races and came away victorious in seven of them. She’s at least as quick as any of her rivals but is still capable of making a late run if she doesn’t get right to the lead. And she is every bit as good on the main track as she is on the lawn, just in case it rains. Although 2-FRANKEL BABY can come from a bit off the pace, it’s her early speed that makes her especially dangerous in this spot. She wired the field in last. If she gets the jump on them she can do it again.

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 4:30 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
6 Malibu Brad - 2/1 2 Captain's Flag - 5/2 8 Larry's Lunchbox - 4/1

6-MALIBU BRAD gets the nod. He’s had three races at this level and finished in the money in all of them, second twice. He’s quick enough to get the lead, especially with little other speed in the field. Can take it all the way. 2-CAPTAIN’S FLAG was favored over top choice in last but tired chasing the pace and faded to third. But, that was his first trip on this track. He got claimed from that race. Could make amends for his new barn. 8-LARRY’S LUNCHBOX will occasionally make a decent late move. He finished in the money in five of his eight races this year. There should be plenty of pace for him to run at. Could be the best of the rest.

Hawthorne Race 7

Post Time 4:58 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
7 American Mayhem - 2/1 8 Code Name - 6/1 3 Gavel - 9/2

7-AMERICAN MAYHEM makes his second start of the year and only his third start since 2022. Last seen here in 2022 as the beaten favorite in the Hawthorne Derby, he took 10 months off after that race and returned as a turf sprinter at Ellis. Ran well enough in his two starts there but again went on vacation, this time about 11 months, and returned with a non-threatening effort in a two-turn Ellis race. Now, he’s back here and turning back in distance. He boasts the highest speed figures of any in here but no guarantee how much he has left. Not exactly sure who will get the lead in this speed-filled race but think 8-CODE NAME, who is also loaded with speed, will have that early zip tempered a bit with the turn back in distance. Might finish with something left as the rest of the speed starts running out of gas. 3-GAVEL finished well back in his lone turf start but he had considerable trouble in that event. He’s bred to love the lawn. Although he is plenty quick, others in here might beat him to the punch but think he’ll finish as well as anybody.

Hawthorne Race 8

Post Time 5:26 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
8 Rocket Hotshot - 7/2 2 Double Thunder - 5/2 7 Global Empire - 9/2

8-ROCKET HOTSHOT might be the one most able to take advantage of the extra real estate of this race. He’s always been a strong finisher but seems to be getting stronger with every increase in distance. He’s taking on better here but could be up to the challenge. 2-DOUBLE THUNDER is at the top of his game. He finished out of the money in his first start of the year but he hasn’t finished worse than second in his six races since. Gets in light with the switch to the hot apprentice rider. Could lead throughout. 7-GLOBAL EMPIRE is another bred to get the distance. He was a powerful winner last time out. Like top choice, he’s meeting better but he did win that last with authority.

Hawthorne Race 9

Post Time 5:54 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
5 Perfect Manhattan - 5/2 2 Drama Queenie - 8/1 4 Babe in the Woods - 5/1

5-PERFECT MANHATTAN looks tough. She showed a lot of improvement when dropped in for a tag in last and she should show even more with first-time Lasix. 2-DRAMA QUEENIE finished far back in both of her starts but she’s dropping into maiden claimers for the first time and taking blinkers off which could help her to relax in the early going. At this level she could finish with something left. 4-BABE IN THE WOODS has had four races at this level. She finished fifth in two of them but second in the other two. She owns enough speed to stay close throughout.