Handicapper Tips & Picks

The complexion of this race does not hold a lot of early speed upgrading the two with tactical speed: #3 PEGGY’S WAY wheels back for her second start in against winners and from the 8/15 race when she was forced to RUSH X_FLOW playing a role in the NO_FINISH late. With the recency, local experience and inside position she can look to get the jump (and value) on #6 MISS SAIPAN one that makes sense showing up on this circuit though also lacked finish with less of an excuse in July at Ellis Park and today’s group is closer to a lateral move noting the circuit switch.

#5 RESOLUTION was upgraded back on 7/25 with the class DROP in her second start against winners and returns fresh off the 42-day break for this event. She had some pace to CLOSE into at this level and might still be required for her with the pattern of gate (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) throughout her career. She could present the value over #2 QUIERO DINERO one that had a similar trip and overall effort in that July common race and the two both at similar odds on the day – and FLOW aided from the 8/15 common race with PEGGY’S WAY. 

Looking at the Plot, this is a tricky race from a pace standpoint. There is a Fire Contention with four of the seven positioned in Quad I, though paired with a moderate 29 SpeedRate. This scenario could still see a “BOS” while also assist runners from off the pace and does create a “rider’s race” and even a “best horse on the day” type situation especially with the shorter 5.5f distance. #2 UNCAPTURED PULSE could be that runner. He wheels right back in a week and can show more early speed something compromised with the TROUBLE_S and Slow early pace that developed in from of him with IMPROVE potential. Today’s Plot position, Fire/SpeedRate is similar to the June 22^nd event (albeit a 6f distance), a race he won with a PERFECT trip with the 26-1 upset and could find similar here. 

The prime hurdle for #2 DOC’S SEVEN as the expected favorite is pace as she makes her run form off (Quad II) and tactical speed is often key over this course and there are not many confirmed front runners in this field. A similar “trip” concern could be present for #6 BALI BABY, however looking at Surface/Distance she is positioned in Quad I and with that trip (along with buried form and return to the right level to compete) she can work out what is needed for that belated win.  The race shape should also suit #1 BE MY BESTIE one that has been too consistent to ignore throughout her career and in capable hands returning from the two month break.

The race shape could also assist longshot #8 ALLOTROPE one that has been looking for a grass return and has not been on the grass for these connections and not since last year as a sophomore in MSW company running competitive races at CBY that fit on par with many in this field and consistent with her current form. She wheels back from a competitive 8/18 race with Frosted Éclair winning at 3-5 from off the pace and that was the first start in 84-days for ALLOTROPE, returning with the front wraps and something to look for in the paddock today.

The analysis starts with #4 KHOZAN’S SUCCESS a runner that only fits this conditions after the late DQ from the May 26^th win and one that has been consistent all season lone. He also has consistently taken up the role as a heavy favorite and tough to see that changing in this spot. While looking at the Plot, he has the Square advantage over many of the pacesetters, though also must contend with the Fire and high 75 SpeedRate something that could catch up with him late.

The Standard Plot upgrades #7 PARKER where a case can be made, however the 5-2 projected odds are shorter on this runner with the change in distance, a downgrade on Surface/Distance Plot, something that requires price compensation. The race shape and Plot consistency suits #2 NOT VERY GENTLE one that should have the pace (Quad II Square) dynamic in his favor and look to turn the tables on KHOZAN’S SUCCESS the conventional way. 

In a competitive event, #8 KING OF THE PALACE fits today’s race shape and in strong hands with J. Felix aboard. He fits on form class and consistency and does hold a place finish over this course (with Felix aboard) gong back to his second career start last August in MSW company. This marks the third start back off the layoff and upside in the second start against winners, keying off the higher par last month at CBY along with the trip making a WIDE CLOSE after TROUBLE_S (the top four together at the wire) that could see them show more tactical speed here. He will also be given preference over stablemate #5 TALONS TIME wheeling right back form the 8/8 common race.

Showing a little more tactical speed can be crucial over this course and with the complexion of the field as some of the speed comes from the two MTO runners. #3 DINOS DIXIE projects to show early speed today and rebound off a legit EX – EXCUSE from the TROUBLES+ that had him lose his footing and race projecting as the controlling speed on 8/18.

As far as #6 MAHONEY ROAD he should run his race and get involved though does not present value in this spot lacking any real strong edge to separate him as a main contender at shorter odds. #4 ON KP projects to hold longer odds again and one that will make a belated return to Hawthorne and the turf. He has struggled on form this year though could be the time and place to rebound off the 54-day freshening and “bullet” at DUQ coming into this race. Form must also hold for #7 CLYDE’S GREEN GO one coming off a top effort and 40-day break into this spot. 

Class comes into play for many in this field, including #5 CANYON SHADOWS one that does find a favorable move back to statebred company. The intent also follows with the turf-to-dirt move that was effective picking up the maiden score in July. #6 RHODIUMS PRIDE is another that finds hidden and considerable class relief from the recent starts with the higher race par. That includes the two statebred allowance races earlier this season, both a higher par and going back to the 4/21 event turned in a  strong effort and tight (SCARED) rail CLOSE that day under J. Felix, the returning rider here.

Trainer E. Lopez comes into this race double fisted with a pair and while looking at the Plot, #7 LATE BLACKSMITH could present the controlling speed, #1 RED MOSCATO comes into this event with form and progression from the races this season. In terms of class, RED MOSCATO will be tested moving away from claiming company, though to be fair he was against open and comparable race par in this spot. He also has shown progression race-to-race and that was similar last season the connections giving him a chance in the Futurity before closing out the cycle at the Fair Grounds.

#1 TOUGH LITTLE NUT makes a belated return and returning under similar conditions to the 6/16 race when turning in a B/BTL effort with the place finish. He was upgraded on the day with progressive form coming out of FG/KEE higher par/purse N1X allowance events, albeit in restricted sophomore company. He had the form over this course and class keying off that one local start and looking at the Plot, he should have pace to target with the higher 63 SpeedRate.

Part of that SpeedRate includes #7 IRIS’S DREAM one that makes a belated return and smartly sticking to the TURF. He fits this race and tough to discount with speed/class on par and even with the higher SpeedRate and Sun Contention he sits as a tracking Quad I/II Square. #6 GREAT COOLNESS will also give up recency making his first start back in 236-days. His B-/BTL allowance effort (TROUBLES+ TRAFFIC CLOSE) back on 12/9 puts him right into the mix here though still must show up with a top effort. The connections have had him on the grounds training steadily going back to mid-June according to the published works, something that could come with reservations taking extra time to get to the races. 

#3 MYSTIC STORM is deserving of another look after faltering as the favorite last out, though requires to be on better behavior today. She was very fractious in the GATE playing a role in the TROUBLE_S and TROUBLE in running showing interest in a subtle trip chasing a Very Slow early and late pace set by the open length pacesetting winner, Top Look. The connection wheel right back in two weeks and with a rider change as O. Mojica takes over.

Trip should suit MYSTIC STORM as well as #7 PALACE MAGIC looking at the Plot with both #5 GO STORMIN GIRL and #6 THINK BLUE in the field (kept honest by outside runner #10 SWEET CRYSTAL and potentially #4 SUMMER AT THE SPA) – runners that fit as individuals though must deal with each other in the early stages to pull off the win. The Contention also should suit #8 SHEZA HOOT One that was competitive under similar circumstances back in July and taken out of her runstyle (TACTIC-) last month and should fall into her preferred trip here. 

Starting to look towards the end of the meet and notable with many on the class drop in here. That includes #2 WOLF HUNTER a long time maiden though one that will make just his first start for a tag on this circuit and upgraded with that change as a “new face” despite the race record. The extreme SPACED race shape did him no favors last month and will reunite here with R. Blanche, a rider that has been up in the past and with minor finishes this season.

#5 SHARP STRIKE also wheels back from that SPACED 8/8 common race showing more run than the line and finishing position suggests making a WIDE MOVE X_FLOW and can IMPROVE all around and the drop should give him his best chance to clear this condition. #4 LONE RETURN also requires the DROP off the race visuals this season. With that day they have not shown much improvement and number wise softer than many other rivals in this field.

As far as the runners in for a claiming tag: #8 I O FEDRO was entered at this $20k MCL level three times before his debut with the connections taking the 8/8 MSW event to get him a race. They wheeled right back and while the DROP looked the right move, the run on the main might not be his preferred surface with the TURF visuals. #9 SKYLANE is a more “experienced” type at this level and versatile in terms of surface. His edge here with J. Felix and early speed along with a live J. Campbell barn keeps him right back in the mix. His effort on 8/15 with the “green” coding gives him an edge over #7 RICKY’S BEST though would still not dismiss that one completely here, though requires some overall price compensation.