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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Thu September 5th, 2024

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Ron's Picks

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 2:10 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
2 Quiero Dinero - 3/1 6 Miss Saipan - 2/1 4 Holy Image - 9/2

2-QUIERO DINERO gets a slim nod. She’s finished third at this level in her first local dirt start and improved to finish second in last. She’ll be tracking the early pace. Can edge by late. 6-MISS SAIPAN looks like the best speed. Kentucky shipper is likely to be favored but she does have the tendency to run out of gas late. 4-HOLY IMAGE might give them a run for the money. Although she has been meeting easier for the most part, she did finish second in her last four, losing the last two by a nose and a head.

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 2:38 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
7 Mon Ami Fuzzie - 5/1 2 Uncaptured Pulse - 5/1 5 Winging Ways - 7/2

7-MON AMIE FUZZIE might be the best closer in this speed-filled race. He’s dropping to meet his easiest field in a long time. The pace should set up. Can break through. I loved 2-UNCAPTURED PULSE in last but he just didn’t make the late run I was expecting. The pace of this race, however, just might set up even better. Deserves another chance. 5-WINGING WAYS might be the best of the speed or at least he usually displays the most sustained effort. Has a legitimate chance to put away the rest of the speed and hold the closers safe.

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 3:06 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
2 Docs Seven - 2/1 1 Be My Bestie - 7/2 8 Allotrope - 20/1

2-DOC'S SEVEN was outgunned in last couple and should be excused those efforts. But, he’s been very good when racing at the right level on turf and this is probably the easiest grass field he has ever met. He beat better the last time Mojica rode him on the lawn. Guessing they’ll get back to the winner’s circle today. 1-BE MY BESTIE certainly figures. It’s been a year since he ran on grass but he has a record of a win and two seconds in his three grass attempts. Switches barns since last and his new barn wins with 32% of those starting for them for the first time. 8-ALLOTROPE might be the best speed. It’s also been a long time since he ran on the weeds but he was also successful in limited tries and even won a maiden special before getting DQ’d.

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 3:34 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
4 Khozan's Success - 8/5 7 Parker - 5/2 2 Not Very Gentle - 9/2

4-KHOZAN'S SUCCESS has been in very good form here. In his last four local starts, he’s had two wins and two seconds. He's not as quick as some in here but he will never be too far back and he will finish well. 7-PARKER has been a good sprinter and he hasn’t had nearly the same success around two turns. But he is dropping back to the right level and his speed figures suggest that he’s among  the fastest of these. 2-NOT VERY GENTLE will try to come on late. He doesn’t possess a big closing move but he’s more than capable of grinding out a third-place finish.

Hawthorne Race 5

Post Time 4:02 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
6 Mahoney Road - 3/1 5 Talons Time - 4/1 7 Clyde's Green Go - 6/1

6-MAHONEY ROAD could get the perfect tracking trip. He was favored at this level in his first local turf trip but was narrowly beaten and finished second. But, he did have considerable trouble in that contest. He’d had only one previous turf race so the recent experience could have helped. The pace of this race might not be quite as quick which could allow him to stay even closer. Late surge can get him by. 5-TALONS TIME finished a little behind top choice in last. Considering that was his turf debut, it was a strong effort. He was even making up ground late. The extra real estate of this race could work to his advantage. Experience certainly helps. 7-CLYDE'S GREEN GO is an interesting runner. He's had three turf races, all at Arlington in 2021, and ran well in all of them. He's likely to go off at a square price despite good current form. Might want to consider.

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 4:30 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
2 Dash to the Cash - 5/1 5 Canyon Shadows - 7/2 3 God Guns N Guts - 3/1

Not really sure where to go with this race, None are in great form. There doesn’t seem to be a great pace scenario. It’s been a long time since 2-DASH TO THE CASH has shown anything but he does have a couple things going for him. He has the highest average recent speed figures, he gets the top pilot in the irons, and a lot of horses improve going from turf to dirt. 5-CANYON SHADOWS is another using the turf to dirt angle. He ran well in his state-bred races on dirt and wired the field to break his maiden two starts back. 3-GOD GUNS AND GUTS could turn out to be the best closer in the field.

Hawthorne Race 7

Post Time 4:58 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
6 Great Coolness - 9/2 1 Tough Little Nut - 5/2 2 All Choked Up - 6/1

6-GREAT COOLNESS makes his first start since January. This lightly-raced runner has shown some versatility in his brief career, He was recently gelded (July) but has had four workouts since. Like the presence of Cohen in the irons. Could get this one home first in what appears to be a wide-open field. 1-TOUGH LITTLE NUT is a three-year-old meeting older but he just finished against a similar field. It’s been 10 weeks since his last race but three drills in that interim will have him on his toes for his return to racing. 2-ALL CHOKED UP moves up in class but there’s a possibility that this speedy runner can steal this on the lead. 

Hawthorne Race 8

Post Time 5:26 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
5 Go Stormin Girl - 7/2 6 Think Blue - 5/2 3 Mystic Storm - 5/1

5-GO STORMIN GIRL certainly isn’t a standout but she has been in such good form this year that it’s hard to get past her in this spot. She’s had eight races in 2024 and finished in the money in seven of them, including a pair of wins. 6-THINK BLUE looks like the main competition. It’s been two months since her last start and she had only one drill in the interim but her barn does bring them back ready. She possesses some of the highest recent speed figures of any in here. She was narrowly beaten at this level in her only local start. 3-MYSTIC STORM was favored when dropped to this level for last but never really fired and finished 10 lengths behind the winner. Switches to the leading rider for this attempt. When this rider and barn team up, they win 31% of the time. Expecting an improved effort from her today.

Hawthorne Race 9

Post Time 5:54 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
7 Ricky's Best - 5/1 2 Wolf Hunter - 9/2 5 Sharp Strike - 5/2

7-RICKY'S BEST finally gets turf. He has been entered for turf in his last three starts but every one of those races was moved to the main track. That isn’t going to happen today. He’s bred for the lawn and will utilize the top rider today. Could be poised to surprise. 2-WOLF HUNTER meets his easiest field ever. He showed a lot of promise early on but simply wasn’t good enough to win at higher levels. But that changes with the drop into maiden claimers. The pace of this race will be brisk. He can finally fully utilize his late run. 5-SHARP STRIKE has never shown much but he’s another dropping into maiden claimers. He’s another that has shown good late run at times. Deserves serious consideration.