Handicapper Tips & Picks

Experience can go a long way in this races though does appear there are live FTS that appear live on debut and to the benefit of the horseplaying public will be able to get a look at the horses and the early money with this race starting off the card: Rivelli strong with sprinters on the turf sends out homebred #5 GOOD TO BE PRINCE off steady local works, the half mile bullet on 8/25 and with main rider D. Cohen aboard; C. Block with their main rider in O. Mojica has the  #8 EXECUTOR one that has as strong of consistency in works to come out race ready.

As far as the DiVito pair: #2 ROYAL BRO will find the change in circuit and fitness in this third start though shortening up could be a hurdle as he has lacked early speed and a guess how that will translate here on the turf sprinting 5f; #4 BABY BOAT worked 10 flat at the April sale and still growing at the time is no surprise for this one to take a little longer to make a debut. Physically he presented as one that can handle the turf off that move at OBS and while there were some published works starting back in May the current cycle picked up in late July and steady into this race.

J. Felix picks up the call on #7 ROYAL AND READY one that makes a return to Hawthorne for this late season debut; IL-bred homebred #9 HOLDEN MICHAEL has some gaps in the published work tab for this race. 

The class DROP (and slight STRETCH in distance) is key for #3 SHE STOPPED SHORT one that has been able to move forward race-to-race though a touch short on class for the MSW level. The barn will also send out #4 RACING THE LIGHT for her first start and going off the visuals working 10.2 back in May at the sale, she has some try though placed accordingly here with the steady work tab.

Rivelli will also be represented by a pair in this race giving the edge to #6 RICHIESGOLDENGIRL with D. Cohen aboard, steady works and as an IL-bred will race for the higher $37.5k tag here today. Her stablemate #2 CATALOG QUEEN had the option to run for the higher tag and remains in for $25k which does appear a bit of a tell. #1 KELLY’S GIRL will also race for the higher allowance claiming tag as she makes her debut here. The works should have her fit with the pairing of gate drills coming into this race something required from the rail though in strong hands with A. Santos aboard.

#5 KUKU wheels right back for this race after the connections took a stab last week at KYD against winners. Her most competitive races to date were the distant show finishes in MCL company at CNL and with today as a lateral move she is tougher to endorse for anything higher than another minor share. 

Keeping with the theme early on in the card another full field of juveniles this time the fillies taking to the turf. #4 BELLA VITTORIA can be upgraded from her debut last month racing GREEN and showing run making a WIDE MOVE X_FLOW after the SLOG. #9 J Z’S LAST SCHANCE made a positive PRERACE+ appearance though also raced GREEN and missing the break (VSLOG) in her debut, a productive race back in June could take a step forward and returns with steady works since.

#3 REIMAGINE shifts to the turf and has had some gate issues forced to RUSH on debut and near excuse TROUBLES+ stumbling out of the gate on 8/22. Off her visuals she should take to the turf (barn has had success on the surface this season) and the slight addition of ground as well.

As far as the first time starters #1 BILLE CEE does not have the “jump off the page” works that can often be present on Rivelli runners and must come out running from the rail. C. Block has the pair with #2 STABLE CURRENCY and #5 CURLS NITE OUT both coming in with steady works and with capable live riders for this barn. 

Looking at today’s Plot with the Sun Contention, 29 SpeedRate and four of the seven runners declared as an E or EP Runstyle, the race sets up #5 IZEONDEC from off the pace. He had form for today’s conditions fitness wheeling back from the WIDE trip chasing with NO_PUSH just one week ago. In addition, he holds a N3 win from back on 5/26 and notable with today’s N3 conditions for runners that have not won three races since March 8^th keeps them eligible here and cleverly placed by trainer E. Rodriguez.

IZEONDEC should hold value in this race with others in this field coming back off wins or in the money finishes in their recent starts. That will include #3 UNIFIED WEEKEND one that fits with a top effort, however questionable he is ready to deliver that type of race coming back in 24-days when extremely game on the front end to stay on as the BOS X_FLOW. The consistency keeps UNIFIED WEEKEND in the mix, though willing to take on for the top spot at a shorter number and similar carried to #6 TWO COOKIE RULE as has had a tough, hard campaign as of late and returns here on shorter rest.

Intent comes back into play here for #2 MIDNIGHT BLUE NOTE with key rider C. Emigh aboard, though with today’s race shape trip will be the prime hurdle. Similar could follow #1 LOOKIN FOR REVENGE with the rail draw here, though some intent as the class change comes into play though with today’s competitive group today’s par is similar to the event for him back on 7/28 an effort in the mix for a minor share. 

#2 T LAW will get another look back on the TURF. Going back to 8/11 he was trying the TURF for just the second time in his career, the second start with a compromised WIDE trip from an outside post in a full field being the first and showed the physicality to handle the grass. That was supported by the effort last month where he had TROUBLE_S made a RUSH into a Very Fast early pace and a WIDE MOVE from off the pace on a day where the course favored runners forwardly placed. He fits right back in this spot with today’s race shape and a slightly lower par.

That 8/11 race is notable with #3 REGIMENTAL also returning from that event and BTL effort in his own right with a compromised TROUBLES and WIDE CLOSE against the course profile. He is a runner that has shown more early speed including his front running maiden win back on 7/7 and as well as prior front running efforts over this turf course going back to last summer in MSW company. A. Santos sticks with REGIMENTAL today and had been aboard #5 LITTLE STEVEN in his recent races and on that should get attention in this spot given the connections and return to claiming company where he makes for a better fit.

#4 MERLOTTI also finds an upgrade returning to Hawthorne and first time on this circuit in for the claiming tag. He showed run in spots with the WIDE trip over the Ellis TURF course last month where the class (a much, much higher par) than today played a bigger role than the surface itself. The rider change today is notable and could even suggest intent as J. Felix has been aboard MERLOTTI in the past including his maiden win here last season. 

#3 KAELY’S SISTER has been well managed returning this season and under the care of Rivelli after a long 552-day layoff coming back in March. After the initial PREP (fractious in the gate) on that day she has been a picture of consistency and dominant with the string of B+ OptixGRADES and speed figures, and O. Mojica something that is tough to ignore in this spot and freshened off the two month break.

#1 FIT AND FAMOUS looks fit and race ready returning off the 246-day layoff with the strong worktab coming into this race including a “bullet” local move back on 8/8. She has shown an affinity for this course breaking her maiden here last season first out and showing what has become her customary early speed that is likely going to be on display right from the rip with the rail draw and other speed in this field positioned on her outside.

#4 WHITE LIES had a look with the race dynamic from off the pace on 8/18 and unable to make that run on the day with a poor start (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) and then was held up (NO_PUSH) from off the pace. WHITE LIES could look to improve and show that late run with a similar dynamic given a projected honest early pace. In addition to the first two fillies mentioned, #5 KANT BELIEVE IT has early speed as well as the two Boyce runners in #2 BEEHIVE and #6 PURR SEA bring more heat to the Fire Contention for WHITE LIES to make that late run from off the pace. 

#2 POLICY OPTION returns looking her for validation as the beaten favorite back on 8/22 and capable of turning things around in this spot. The public might not have been “wrong” in the backing on the day, as POLICY OPTION was X_FLOW and played a role in the outcome where they were unable to run their race to compete.

Perhaps A. Meraz saw this race in the book and jumped in for #9 LAND MARK DEAL last week for $5k and rather than run for the $7.5k here they take advantage of the IL-bred allowance to run for $11.5k. They wheel right back off the claim and a “winning” effort with the place finish and his overall form this season both on the dirt and turf stack up on par. Centeno showing up as a live rider for this barn and on this horse in particular as they have never finished out of the money together in four starts including a win.

The rider change with C. Emigh picking up the mount on #7 BANDIT SWANSON catches the eye. This gelding will require another step forward though has shown mild progression, his back class more than makes him a player and something to look for in the paddock if the front wraps are removed. Progressive and consistent form carries to #10 SON OF GRACE picking up a rider change after a couple of less than ideal rides (TACTIC-) in the two recent starts playing a role in the outcome. 

#3 MAYSTART is one of the more logical types in here with consistent figures though does require from a slight 49-day break and slight drop after the PERFECT win on 7/21. #1 HEAVENLY HASH also returning from a slight freshening also fits at this level and picked up the win here twice this season with the rail draw. Those two should rate off what expects to be an honest pace with both #4 TOP LOOK and #5 SMILE AT THE STORM in this field.

#9 TIMELESS GLORY returns to the claiming level and sprint distance conditions where she was competitive with a WIDE trip to finish in a BLANKET settling for the show finish. Since, she has been protected and running linger losing ground late in those races and makes the changes here looking for a second win this season.  

Centeno taking over on #10 KITTEN ROCKS is an interesting change tough to ignore in here. She is looking for a belated win since the summer of 2022 though has turned in competitive races since. One of those the place finish back on 8/1 behind the 1-2 chalk winner, Smooth Justice. Centeno had previous been aboard #11 A REAL HERO for her prior connections showing up first off the claim here and perhaps a bigger change shifting to the outer post. The trip could be tricky for #12 EMITYAAZ from the outside as one that does prefer to race forward and will also remain sprinting for just the second time this meet.

#2 CAIRO SUMMER also given a look as she can IMPROVE off the trip on 8/4 though does have the distance change here as a bit of a question mark. She will also find a rider change with  10-lb bug  Ortega picking up the mount, their lone mount on the card. 

#5 ROBIN SAGE was cross entered in an allowance at KY Downs (AE) and looking to pick this spot to regain some confidence. She presents upside off the 7/20 race compromised by the race shape after a TROUBLE_S and held up from off the pace showed run despite the running line and finishing position to suggest she can IMPROVE.

#8 BAG LADY also can move forward in this second start back off the layoff and has the races from the spring that fit on par here. She makes a second start of the cycle wheeling back from a WIDE trip with the outside post in a full field last out at Ellis Park. On the day she projected to race closer to the pace (Q2) though caught WIDE and out of position before losing ground. The form of the 7/27 race has held up with the few running back including both the win and place finishers winning in allowance company next out and taking nothing away from the show finisher picking up a place finish in higher allowance company on Thursday at KYD.

Cohen picks up the mount on BAD LADY opening up the mount on #6 SPICY ITALIAN for L. Colon her stablemate. SPICY ITALIAN must step up off her races this season, though does appear she will get to the TURF, the intended surface and back at Hawthorne where she was effective late last season before closing out the year in tough spots out in KY. 

We kick off a great Sunday card with three straight baby races to open the day. Starting on the turf with a solid bunch as I'll give the nod to 4-BABY BOAT in here, who debuts for DiVito. He draws well for this spot, has been working forwardly and is bred to handle the grass. We will see if eventually he wants to run longer, but he appears primed and ready at first asking. 8-EXECUTOR is another bred for grass who debuts for Block as he has worked forwardly toward this spot as well. His gate drill was good but his most recent work from the pole was stronger as he appears ready to roll. 6-JOURNEY has a race under his belt as he chased in his debut and ran on late. I would expect we see some speed from him in here as he should be in contention throughout.

Leaning a bit toward the one with experience here as I went to 3-SHE STOPPED SHORT on top in her third career start. She improved off her debut in her last and now finds things a bit easier. I expect she shows speed and while she doesn't necessarily need the lead to win, I don't think she will be too far back either. 2-CATALOG QUEEN debuts for Rivelli for the tag off a consistent work pattern as she is bred to show speed. The break will be the key for her as she will need to get away well from the inside draw. 1-KELLY'S GIRL also debuts as the Illinois-bred runs for the additional money first out. She's going to need to get away cleanly from the fence but coming into here with back to back gate works is a plus.

Sometimes you don't have to look too far past the favorite and this could be one of those times as 3-UNIFIED WEEKEND appears to be a standout in here. He was sent for the top in his last and drew clear in the lane. With his stablemate likely to show speed right next to him, don't be surprised if he rates and runs on late. 4-JET FLIGHT also won on the lead in his last as the claim on him was voided by the vet. He's been away since that start and has just the one work since. Let's see if he needs one coming back or is ready as he looks to rate back and rally in the lane. 1-LOOKIN FOR REVENGE will need some pace to chase as he should be sitting back early and closing in the stretch. He was a game winner in back to back starts earlier in the summer and could provide some value in here.

This appears to be the winning spot for 9-MY BROTHER KEITH as he moves back to the grass and makes his second start off the claimed. While he tried the allowance ranks in his first back, he is back for the conditioned tag but still above the level of the claim. He has tactical speed and should get a fine trip from the outside draw. 6-SHARP STICK should be stalking the pace as he comes in off a pair of solid efforts at this level. Cohen takes the call today as he looks to take his share of action. 7-PONCHO ATTACK could be the sleeper at a price as he's been a different racehorse on the grass. We will see how he handle to move to two turns but the figures line up with this field and the price should be right..

This is a really good allowance bunch in a spot that serves as a prep for some for the Illinois stake at the end of the month. 3-KAELY'S SISTER has won four straight coming into here and looks poised for another big effort as she has tactical speed and loves this track and distance. Look for her to stalk the pace today as she has run well off the layoff in the past. 6-PURR SEA showed a different side last out as she was able to rate off the pace and rally in the lane. That could benefit her today as she finds a couple of others with speed in here. From the outside, look for Santos to see how things unfold in from of her early and determine a plan in the opening 16th. 5-KANT BELIEVE IT was favored over the top two selections when this group met on June 15 but was no match for either that day. She's been away since that start but was working in Kentucky and returns to Hawthorne as one of the possible pacesetters in here.

There are some back turf numbers that make 9-LAND MARK DEAL a solid threat in here while at a price. With nearly $150k in earnings on the turf, he has shown the ability to rate and run on late. He was claimed for $7,500 in his last and gets in here running for the raised Illinois tag. Look for him to sit back early and rally in the lane. 2-POLICY OPTION is clearly the one to beat as he makes his second start off the claim. He ran a decent race in his last but lacked the needed kick in the stretch. He will need some pace to close into as he is also proven on the turf. 8-ANDTHETHUNDERROLLS has been on the dirt in recent starts but came up as a grass horse, posting some decent turf efforts. He finds things a bit easier today compared to what he had been facing as he should be able to rate a bit closer early and contend throughout.

This is a wildly tough race as you can make a case for almost every horse in the field. I really liked the effort out of 3-MAYSTART in her last as she rated in the second flight early and responded nicely when asked in the stretch. She improved with the drop in class and finds a spot where she could get a very similar trip to the one she found last out. 4-TOP LOOK has tactical speed as she was a good winner in her last. In that race there wasn't much pace as she inherited the lead and ran on late. Today, expect her to sit just off the early speed and look to get a jump on the closers. 8-SUPORB figures to be one of those pressing things on the lead and she has been solid in all four Hawthorne starts. If she can get away in good order today, she has the potential to clear and never look back.

Despite the field of 10, there appears to really only be one with speed in here. That horse being 2-R KATIEBUG as she draws near the inside and should be alone on the lead. If she can clear as expected and not have to work too hard to do it, she should be able to cruise along early and save something for the lane. 5-ROBIN SAGE comes in from Kentucky as she will be one looking for some pace to chase. She ran a nice race over the Churchill turf two back and gets a solid finisher in Emigh in the saddle. 9-CHURCH PEW has surprised this meet and could in here as she ran well at this level last out. She was beaten just over a length at the wire and could be the one sticking closest to R Katiebug early.

Most of the runners in here have never raced and none have raced on turf so the outcome is murky. But we’ll do the best with the info we have. Out of those that have raced so far, 6-JOURNEY had the best effort. He finished third in his lone start and the runner that finished just ahead of him came back to win his next start. He races for sharp connections and has a nice turf pedigree. Would expect him to be on or close to the lead throughout. 8-EXECUTOR sports probably the best turf pedigree. His trainer is a whiz at training turf runners though they often need a start. 5-GOOD TO BE A PRINCE has decent drills coming into his career debut. He races for the top barn that sports a 28% winning average with their first-time starters. 7-ROYAL AND READY is an interesting runner. His works are OK. But, it’s his connections that make him interesting. They win with a high percentage of their first timers and even though they are mostly based at a racetrack without a turf course, they win with 21% turf sprinters. Might be worth a look.

3-SHE STOPPED SHORT makes her third start. Her second race was better than her first. Drops into maiden claimers for the first time. She’s likely to display good speed...maybe good enough to win this. 6-RICHIESGOLDENGIRL is one of the two Rivelli-trained Ravin homebreds in the race. Her works are a little quicker but a little shorter than those of her stablemate. She would seem most likely to be the one pressing the pace. 2-CATALOG QUEEN, stablemate of Richiesgoldengirl also races for the top barn and her five-furlong drills might suggest that she’ll be better prepared to stay competitive the entire distance.

9-JZ'S LAST SCHANCE had a ton of hype going into her career debut back in June but got demolished out of the gate and never got back on track. It’s been three months since that race and she’s had few recent drills but I know they were waiting for the opportunity to run her on the lawn. Guess we’ll see if that hype was realistic. 4-BELLA VITORIA was favored in her debut and displayed good speed but tired to finish a well-beaten fourth. But loved her drills going into that race and know she’ll be even fitter coming out of it. 1-BILLIE CEE was a $150,000 auction purchase in July of 2023. She starts for the top barn that wins with 28% of their first timers and 266 of their two-year-olds. 5-CURLS NITE OUT is the oldest filly in the race which can make a difference at this time of the year. Plus, she gets the top jock for one of the top barns.

Most everyone in here has gone for the lead at some point in recent races so it’s kind of hard to figure out who will get the early lead in this contest. But expecting 1-LOOKIN FOR REVENGE to be racing right off the early pace. He’s been in against tougher since early in the meet when he won two races. With the drop in class he should be able to turn poor recent form around and be far more competitive. 3-UNIFIED WEEKEND won two of last three. He wired the field in last but came from off the pace to win his third race back. Altogether he finished in the money in six of his last seven races, including that pair of victories. Would have to expect that he’ll hold his current form for at least one more race. 4-JET FLIGHT goes for two in a row. He wired the field, as the favorite, in his most recent start. Might try to do the same against somewhat tougher rivals.

This seems like a pretty open race so might as well take a shot. Excuse 7-PONCHO ATTACK’s last race. He was in against better and the race was moved to the main track where he never had much success. However, he has run well in four of his five turf races. He came up a little short in his first race against winners but he was flying late and simply ran out of real estate. With an extra quarter mile to play with, he might be able to fly by them all. 6-SHARP STICK comes off two straight second-place finishes at this level. Unlike top choice, he should never be too far off the pace. Might be the first two wear down the early leaders. 9-MY BROTHER KEITH seems more versatile than most in here. He has shown the ability to race competitively on or off the pace. Most of his previous races were on main tracks but he did run well in his last two start. He showed little for the barn in last, his first start after they claimed him, but he’s in a far easier spot with the return to turf in his local debut.

3-KAELY'S SISTER finished third in her first start here and her first start for this barn but then reeled off three straight local victories and then went to Ohio to record another. It’s been two months since her last race and her recent workout pattern raises some questions but think she can pick up right where she left off. 6-PURR SEA was a sharp winner in her most recent start. She had been going for the lead in most recent races and fading late but they changed tactics in last, took her back early, and she responded with a strong stretch run to notch the victory. She finished behind top choice the last time they met but could turn the tables today. 2-BEEHIVE might be a notch below the top pair but she has had 10 races in her career and finished in the money in nine of them, winning three times.

2-POLICY OPTION has some back class on turf but he hasn’t been quite the same after taking 10 moths off. He was claimed by the top barn two races back and went off as the heavy favorite in his first start for them but never really fired. But he is dropping a notch and making his second start for this barn. Could make amends at a short price. It’s been a long time since 7-BANDIT SWANSON ran on turf but he had three grass races in Texas a few years ago and ran well in all of them. They have been experimenting with taking blinkers on and off him and they come off again in this race. He hasn’t shown much in his three races this year but might wake up with the switch in surfaces. 9-LAND MARK DEAL could be the best of the rest and just might be the best of all. His previous turf races were against better. He was just claimed from last by a barn that does good with their first-time claims. He’s likely to be a higher price than top pair. Would definitely consider.

4-TOP LOOK could make it two in a row. She overpowered a similar group in last and got claimed from that race by a barn that wins with 29% of their first-time claims. 9-TIMELESS GLORY drops to a more reasonable level. She’s been a major player in many of her races at this level. Should be again. 12-EMITYAAZ showed little in her first start for this barn but they turned her back in distance for that race and she simply isn’t a sprinter. Stretches back out today. She finished in the money in six of her seven routes this year. Should at least grab the show dough.

Nice competitive race to end the day. Don’t know if there will be a clear favorite. Going to give 8-BAG LADY a small nod. She's one of three shipping in from a tougher circuit. Don’t like that she was eased in last but she was never really in the race and was always far back. But’s she’s had a couple decent drills since that race and she’s likely meeting easier company in this race. 5-ROBIN SAGE is another coming in off a terrible effort but she did have trouble in that race. She’s also coming from a tougher circuit. Her speed figures suggest she’s among the fastest of these. 4-ROAR OF SILENCE is an interesting runner. She narrowly won her turf debut in maiden claimers but then came right back to demolish a NW2. Faces a far tougher task against this group but an effort similar to last could wind her back in the winner’s circle. Always like 2-R KATIEBUG but not convinced a mile and a sixteenth is her best distance.

Race 6:  3 - 5 - 2

Pick 4 Ticket:  2,3,5 / 2,8 / 3,4,9,11 / 2,4,5,8  ($48)

#3 Kaely’s Sister (2-1) is on an absolute role for Rivelli. She’s coming in from out of town, but she’s raced many times at Hawthorne and has been working well for this start. Doesn’t need the lead, but probably better if she gets it.

Race 7:  2 - 8 - 9

Defaulting the ML-fave, #2 Policy Option (7-5), but not proud of it. Horse is running fine, but nothing spectacular. I would not take too low a price on this one, especially since he’s for sale for $7,500. Not too many options other than him, but #8 Andthethunderrolls used to run some nice races on the grass back in the day…maybe he can rekindle that turf fire in his belly? 

Race 8:  4 - 11 - 9

I’ve said this before a few times on these selections…lower-level conditioned claimers don’t pass from deep too often, so I’m always looking for early speed. Perhaps 4yo filly #4 Top Look (9-2) is finding her footing, winning very well on the lead last time. She’s claimed by Rodriguez who’s 29% with new acquisitions…why not again?

Race 9:  8 - 4 - 2

I’m a sucker for “zero Beyer” horses. I know, sounds ridiculous. But they do suprisingly well. #8 Bag Lady (4-1) is coming off a complete non-effort…she was awful. But Catalano brings horses to this meet with intent, and she has plenty of back-numbers that would win here. She’s only 1-for-9, so this one is a bit of an “all-or-nothing” type.