« 09/07/2024 09/09/2024 »
Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sun September 8th, 2024

Download as PDF

Jim's Picks

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 2:10 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
4 Baby Boat - 5-1 8 Executor - 9-2 6 Journey - 4-1

We kick off a great Sunday card with three straight baby races to open the day. Starting on the turf with a solid bunch as I'll give the nod to 4-BABY BOAT in here, who debuts for DiVito. He draws well for this spot, has been working forwardly and is bred to handle the grass. We will see if eventually he wants to run longer, but he appears primed and ready at first asking. 8-EXECUTOR is another bred for grass who debuts for Block as he has worked forwardly toward this spot as well. His gate drill was good but his most recent work from the pole was stronger as he appears ready to roll. 6-JOURNEY has a race under his belt as he chased in his debut and ran on late. I would expect we see some speed from him in here as he should be in contention throughout.

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 2:38 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
3 She Stopped Short - 4-1 2 Catalog Queen - 3-1 1 Kelly's Girl - 9-2

Leaning a bit toward the one with experience here as I went to 3-SHE STOPPED SHORT on top in her third career start. She improved off her debut in her last and now finds things a bit easier. I expect she shows speed and while she doesn't necessarily need the lead to win, I don't think she will be too far back either. 2-CATALOG QUEEN debuts for Rivelli for the tag off a consistent work pattern as she is bred to show speed. The break will be the key for her as she will need to get away well from the inside draw. 1-KELLY'S GIRL also debuts as the Illinois-bred runs for the additional money first out. She's going to need to get away cleanly from the fence but coming into here with back to back gate works is a plus.

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 3:34 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
3 Unified Weekend - 9-5 4 Jet Flight - 4-1 1 Lookin for Revenge - 5-1

Sometimes you don't have to look too far past the favorite and this could be one of those times as 3-UNIFIED WEEKEND appears to be a standout in here. He was sent for the top in his last and drew clear in the lane. With his stablemate likely to show speed right next to him, don't be surprised if he rates and runs on late. 4-JET FLIGHT also won on the lead in his last as the claim on him was voided by the vet. He's been away since that start and has just the one work since. Let's see if he needs one coming back or is ready as he looks to rate back and rally in the lane. 1-LOOKIN FOR REVENGE will need some pace to chase as he should be sitting back early and closing in the stretch. He was a game winner in back to back starts earlier in the summer and could provide some value in here.

Hawthorne Race 5

Post Time 4:02 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
9 My Brother Keith - 2-1 6 Sharp Stick - 3-1 7 Poncho Attack - 20-1

This appears to be the winning spot for 9-MY BROTHER KEITH as he moves back to the grass and makes his second start off the claimed. While he tried the allowance ranks in his first back, he is back for the conditioned tag but still above the level of the claim. He has tactical speed and should get a fine trip from the outside draw. 6-SHARP STICK should be stalking the pace as he comes in off a pair of solid efforts at this level. Cohen takes the call today as he looks to take his share of action. 7-PONCHO ATTACK could be the sleeper at a price as he's been a different racehorse on the grass. We will see how he handle to move to two turns but the figures line up with this field and the price should be right..

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 4:30 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
3 Kaely's Sister - 2-1 6 Purr Sea - 5-2 5 Kant Believe It - 4-1

This is a really good allowance bunch in a spot that serves as a prep for some for the Illinois stake at the end of the month. 3-KAELY'S SISTER has won four straight coming into here and looks poised for another big effort as she has tactical speed and loves this track and distance. Look for her to stalk the pace today as she has run well off the layoff in the past. 6-PURR SEA showed a different side last out as she was able to rate off the pace and rally in the lane. That could benefit her today as she finds a couple of others with speed in here. From the outside, look for Santos to see how things unfold in from of her early and determine a plan in the opening 16th. 5-KANT BELIEVE IT was favored over the top two selections when this group met on June 15 but was no match for either that day. She's been away since that start but was working in Kentucky and returns to Hawthorne as one of the possible pacesetters in here.

Hawthorne Race 7

Post Time 4:58 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
9 Land Mark Deal - 8-1 2 Policy Option - 7-5 8 Andthethunderrolls - 4-1

There are some back turf numbers that make 9-LAND MARK DEAL a solid threat in here while at a price. With nearly $150k in earnings on the turf, he has shown the ability to rate and run on late. He was claimed for $7,500 in his last and gets in here running for the raised Illinois tag. Look for him to sit back early and rally in the lane. 2-POLICY OPTION is clearly the one to beat as he makes his second start off the claim. He ran a decent race in his last but lacked the needed kick in the stretch. He will need some pace to close into as he is also proven on the turf. 8-ANDTHETHUNDERROLLS has been on the dirt in recent starts but came up as a grass horse, posting some decent turf efforts. He finds things a bit easier today compared to what he had been facing as he should be able to rate a bit closer early and contend throughout.

Hawthorne Race 8

Post Time 5:26 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
3 Maystart - 6-1 4 Top Look - 9-2 8 Suporb - 5-1

This is a wildly tough race as you can make a case for almost every horse in the field. I really liked the effort out of 3-MAYSTART in her last as she rated in the second flight early and responded nicely when asked in the stretch. She improved with the drop in class and finds a spot where she could get a very similar trip to the one she found last out. 4-TOP LOOK has tactical speed as she was a good winner in her last. In that race there wasn't much pace as she inherited the lead and ran on late. Today, expect her to sit just off the early speed and look to get a jump on the closers. 8-SUPORB figures to be one of those pressing things on the lead and she has been solid in all four Hawthorne starts. If she can get away in good order today, she has the potential to clear and never look back.

Hawthorne Race 9

Post Time 5:54 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
2 R Katiebug - 7-2 5 Robin Sage - 3-1 9 Church Pew - 15-1

Despite the field of 10, there appears to really only be one with speed in here. That horse being 2-R KATIEBUG as she draws near the inside and should be alone on the lead. If she can clear as expected and not have to work too hard to do it, she should be able to cruise along early and save something for the lane. 5-ROBIN SAGE comes in from Kentucky as she will be one looking for some pace to chase. She ran a nice race over the Churchill turf two back and gets a solid finisher in Emigh in the saddle. 9-CHURCH PEW has surprised this meet and could in here as she ran well at this level last out. She was beaten just over a length at the wire and could be the one sticking closest to R Katiebug early.