Handicapper Tips & Picks

Some rider changes in this race could impact the outcome and the race dynamic. J. Felix will jump aboard #5 HAY MOON one that has shown early speed and should put pace pressure on #6 NATHANIEL’S HOPE; one looking at the Plot appears to present tactical speed though should find company today and #1 STORM’S REFLECTION with the rail and return to the TURF can show early speed. With Felix landing there that opens the mount for A. Centeno aboard #2 BOURBON LIFE one that was upgraded overall and from the place finish making a WIDE CLOSE X_FLOW in the 8/22 common race.

From that event also returning #4 EVEN THE WIND compromised by the SLOG, TROUBLE_S something of a habit for this one though afterwards showed a WIDE MOVE to get not the number with the show finish and another looking at the Plot, fits today’s race shape. 

#2 WILDWOOD SICILIAN returns to Hawthorne and conditions of the win back on 7/6. He showed up with a similar form cycle pattern – second off from a credible effort at FD. He fits today’s race shape looking at the Plot, however, does find a tougher group here than he did back in July and can be tested with the higher race par and the other Q1 runners above the ParLine to keep the early pace honest. That Fire Contention includes #6 MISTER KELLY one that looked to need the race and added ground showing up off the layoff two weeks ago and comes right back today without a drop to suggest some intent here.

That contentious and honest early pace should assist #3 CORTESE one that returns off the three month break and first time in for a tag since claimed by these connections at the end of 2022. He has a strong closing kick and should have first run on #1 MOHAAFETH. Santos picks up the mount with J. Felix shifting over to #4 TABLE MONEY another one of those EP types projecting to show early speed though can rate as he showed that dimension with the June 8^th turf win.

Going back to the July 6^th race, #5 BLOW TORCH was favored in that event and finds a subtle change today from that race moving from the inside to the outside, a favorable move for this individual. 

Another competitive group including the mare #1 SHARP HERO a local favorite, and one that is not out of it here though perhaps has a bigger hurdle today back with the rail draw and has not been as effective from that post in the past.

#2 ELI’S PROMISE picks up Felix and likely a change in TACTIC- from the 8/1 race when taken off the pace and out of his run style. While the running line and finishing position appears average he showed run especially late making a WIDE CLOSE and GALLOP+ earning a follow right back under similar conditions here. Looking at the Plot and with the inside position on #5 DEVIL’S TOWER projects to return to front running ways. Centeno will shift to the other DiVito #3 WINNEMAC AVENUE returning from the 144 day layoff and given most of his career contested at the route distance could require a race.

#6 WENT WEST returns to Hawthorne and upgraded from the 8/21 PID event making a RUSH X_FLOW and stayed on late as the race began to slow, He moves back to an outside post, a key change to look for a similar trip as the dominant win here back on 6/8 and look to get the jump on #4 NAVY SEAL one with a similar runstyle and looking to pair wins coming back from a well ridden score in that 8/1 common race with ELI’S PROMISE. 

#7 LALY projects to be a heavy favorite once again and while there were some concerns with her in that role prior, she should catch the right group today. Going back to 6/1 at 18-1 she caught the track BIAS in her favor and stepped up on 6/23 to take on open she rebounded with an improved place finish in statebred company on 7/11 the race prior to the break she returns from here.

Looking at the Plot LALY should hold the “speed of the speed” over #2 LIONS LAW though could take pressure from that runner as well as #3 IRISH SPARK one that remains protected at this level for the live DiVito barn. #5 THE LAST THRILL will look to stalk and pounce and has held her form this season with consistence even at times behind some of today’s rivals. Similar carries to #4 I DID THE MATH one that ran a winning race back on 8/10 at FD though one that requires the price compensation to make up for her deep closing runstyle. 

The class DROP is the right move for #4 PRINCESS TENKO returning here off her recent races. The change in class is less of a concern as she made her first start on this circuit back in May under today’s conditions finishing second with that race at a route distance. The change was a step up where she consistently ran her race and has held form, just not quite to the level required for the win.

There should be enough pace for PRINCESS TENKO to work a trip from off the pace in this field. The early pace is tough to grasp with the four front runners listed with the EP runstyle. #2 LUCY JANE has the Standard (current form) edge looking at the Plot over the quick returning #8 ALLOTROPE one that can show up with early speed from Surface/Distance. LUCY JANE was able to rate inside to win here on 8/15 though noted the race shape Fast early and late on the day. Number wise she ran a top figure back in 2022 breaking her maiden on an off track that stands out as one of the higher in the field and in line with the better races out of #7 MIDNIGHT’S GIRL one of two in this field with more than three career wins.

The change in class will also follow #5 COCKTAIL CUTIE making her way back to Hawthorne where she ran competitive races back in April and those events fit on par here. This will be her third start of this cycle (scratched from a conditional $16k claiming event last month at ELP) and given a flow up grade (X_FLOW) from the 7/30 FD start in a common race with the winner, #6 FANCY HILL.  

#10 LIFE’S SAGA makes a return to the turf and with competitive form all season the connections appear to show up with intent on this circuit. She showed a lot of run in her debut making  MOVE through TRAFFIC with a big GALLOP out though was exposed on distance in her second start at KEE and kept at the ONE_TURN since. She was competitive on the grass back sprinting making a WIDE MOVE after a rough start at ELP and validated that effort with the place finish last month at PID.

#3 DEAL’EM AND WEEP does not have to face her stablemate Crossanna today, the case coming off the slight freshening last month. She fits in this field in her own right and should be fit cutting back in distance noting she was entered in a MSW turf sprint on 8/15 scratched when the races came off the grass. She will face stablemate #5 CAIRO DREAM as she makes her belated debut here. She worked 10.1 at the March sale as a juvenile still growing and figuring things out in that work though physically should take to the grass and has a steady string of works to come out race ready. 

After a three win Sunday tough to dismiss anything from the M. Boyce barn especially showing up here with capable pair. #1 DEVIL wheels right back to the main track and off a sneaky good CLOSE last out on the turf. Class wise she returns to statebred company fir the first time since June and in the races this season and has shown the edge over stablemate #4 RUMBRANDT this year though RUMBRANDT did get the better of DEVIL last year in the Debutante and her runstyle can be upgraded in today’s projected race shape. DEVIL will have to be put into the race from the rail and likely to find pace pressure with others including #5 LOST SUNSET and #6 MISS MIKOS.

As far as MISS MIKOS she has consistently run some of the higher figures in this field and fits on that front as she steps up to take on winners, though will also give up some recency in this first start back in 103-days. #8 COME ON LADY was not far off MISS MIKOS earlier this season and while she must improve quite a bit to turn the tables she is one that can be left in the mix at longer odds. 

#4 SAILING SOLO will also make his second start of the cycle, though a belated return that was not necessarily planned noting four scratches with races moved to the main track since the June 15^th layoff return. His presence and early speed should hold an edge in today’s race shape looking at the Plot and regular rider, J. Felix should be assertive right from the jump.

One of those off-the-turf scratches for SAILING SOLO on 8/29 was also a scratch for #6 BATTLE SCARS one that will drop in for the tag today for the first time in his career. The drop off the win and time off can have some reservations though at this point in the season the move could make sense and would also open some starter conditions going forward. Block will also send out #2 MONSTERONTHEMIDWAY with current form though softer figures than many in this field, including his stablemate.

The inside lanes were favorable on the Sunday card and with the rail in the same spot today that could benefit #1 NILES CHANNEL one that already fits with today’s race. This will be his second start of the cycle and coming back this year has had some adversity including the EX – EXCUSE with the stumble from the gate (TROUBLES+ NO_PUSH) back in July at CBY.

#1 EMITYAAZ scratched out of a similar event on Sunday to run in this spot and shows intent by the connections. She fits today’s race shape with the complexion of this field, inside draw and O. Mojica aboard their assignment also noted with the trainer scratch last Sunday.

#3 QUILTING PARTY shows up with a drop first off the claim and two month break, something that brings some reservations though does fit today’s condition. She is winless on the year since coming back off the layoff in April, the one fact that makes this five time winner eligible for today’s race.

#5 GHAALEB’S RANGER also takes the class drop looking for her first win on the year. While her races from prior seasons and even the first part of year at Oaklawn make her a main player, the recent form and figures lack an edge over some others in this group and tough to take the current form at a shorter number. 

We kick off the day on the grass with a very competitive bunch as we have an Early Pick 5 carryover of $3,753. Looking to 2-BOURBON LIFE in this spot as he comes off a solid effort in his last and may get the right trip in here. With none really committed to the front, he could rate a bit closer than normal as he showed he was able to close into a very slow pace in his last. The last time Centeno was aboard was for a victory. Let's see if he can grind one out here. 6-NATHANIEL'S HOPE ran a big race in his last as he stalked the pace and drew clear late. That effort was flattered by Sharp Stick coming back for an impressive win here last Sunday. He could be the one to find himself on the lead here, much like he did in his race two back. 4-EVEN THE WIND has been solid in his four starts on the year as he comes out of the same race with Bourbon Life in his last. He has been an every other race kind of horse on the meet though and should be sitting on a big effort once again.

This is a really good bunch for $25k with a lot of classy racehorses in here. On the drop I'll give the nod to 3-CORTESE as he was a winner against better two back and ran a decent race in a very tough spot last out. He should be able to sit a bit closer early in here as he has posted three drills in between starts. He runs well fresh and picks up the hot riding Santos in the saddle today. 2-WILDWOOD SICILLIAN is the likely pace of the race as he was a good winner at this level back in July. He battled before giving way in his last at Fairmount and comes back to the Hawthorne strip where he has performed quite well. 5-BLOW TORCH comes back off a tough race in Indiana in his last where he chased and ran evenly late. He's another that has been sharp at Hawthorne as he will just need a little pace to close into.

Another excellent field with all six in with a chance. 5-DEVIL'S TOWER comes out of that crazy race at Fairmount where he was clearly tons the best, yet was DQ'd and placed last. He has speed but doesn't need the lead and has won half of his 28 starts at this distance. He's game as he will be in the mix every step of the way. 6-WENT WEST is another that is always right there as he's found the board in his last five. He has tactical speed but will likely stalk the pace as he gets Colon back in the saddle with the Hawthorne return. If the pace is contested upfront, he will benefit late. 3-WINNEMAC AVENUE returns off the layoff as he sprints today. His works have been sharp, albeit spaced out but he clearly has some class, with nearly $250k in earnings from just 12 starts. Expect him to settle early and charge in the lane.

I got caught by this horse last out but am willing to give one more chance to 4-I DID THE MATH as her entire race could be dictated by the break. She has been in much better form in her last three and was full of run in the lane, but if she can get away better early and get into the race it leaves her a shot. A switch to solid finisher in Cohen in the saddle today as she could provide some value. 3-IRISH SPARK made a smart move to jump back to this level in her last as she was a good second as the even money favorite. Expect her to rate close early once again. 5-THE LAST THRILL came off the layoff for her last as she ran a solid race, finishing just behind Irish Spark in that spot. It was her best effort of her short career as she looks to be headed in the right direction.

This is a tough maiden race and there's some unknowns in here due to distance or never being on turf. One with a little turf experience who could be a pace presence is 2-GEORGIA ON E'SMIND as she makes her second start for her new barn.  She debuted last summer on the grass and chased from an outside draw. She was given time off following that start before dropping in for a tag. In her last, she chased a good winner on the dirt and didn't give way until the lane. Let's see what she shows with the return to the turf today. 10-LIFE'S SAGA ships in from Kentucky as she draws the outside here. With some speed to her inside she will have to work out a trip as she comes in off a second place effort in a short field and picks up Centeno. 3-DEAL'EM AND WEEP turns back in distance as the turf is where she belongs. She chased the entire way in her last and battled on through the lane. At this sprint distance she figures to settle early and close ground late.

1-DEVIL is really long overdue for her second career score as she has raced competitively all meet long, oftentimes against open company. She has early speed but doesn't need to be on the lead and should be able to tuck in just off the pace of Air Gerri and Lost Sunset. 6-MISS MIKOS was a game winner in her last as she pressed the pace and ran on late. Cohen gets the return ride as she has been away for a few months but has worked forwardly toward her return. 5-LOST SUNSET has speed and will likely try to outkick Air Gerri to the top. She's been good in her last couple as this will be her first start against state-bred runners.

A very solid bunch for $20k as some classy runners drop in for the tag at the end of the meet. Coming off a game effort against stakes company in his last, 5-SILVER QUARTERS returns at a distance where he has run well and should get some pace to chase. Wales put him in a good spot against state-bred stakes runners last out and had him closing late behind a slow early pace. In here, he should be able to settle early and make one run in the lane. 4-SAILING SOLO has speed and class but will just need to shake clear of Lavender Earl early. If he can get loose, he may be tough to catch as he makes just his second start of his 9yo campaign. 6-BATTLE SCARS will need a quick and contested pace to chase as he comes in off a fine allowance win in his last. Mojica gets the return ride as he will just need to time the move to get up in time.

5-GHAALEB'S RANGER is the last of a group of live runners that Scott Becker has entered on this Thursday card as she takes a bit of a class drop in search of a confidence boost. She chased in her last before tiring in the lane and is looking to get back to her form of last fall. There is some early pace in here which should allow for her to settle early and close with a rush in the stretch. 8-PADDY GAL is one that has a bit of early speed as she makes her second start back off the layoff. She posted back to back wins while on the front end prior to the rest and the distance just may not have suited her in that last start. Let's see if she is sent away from the outside draw today. 1-EMITYAAZ scratched from a spot on Sunday for this race as she gets back around two turns as well. She ran a nice race when claimed two back but was left to chase the lone lead in there. Let's see if she's more assertive from the rail draw today.

I’m not in love with 4-EVEN THE WIND but he might be the one to beat. He didn’t display his usual good late acceleration in last but the pedestrian early fractions would work against a closer like that. There isn’t a lot of speed in this race but a couple new shooters just might help to set things up for him. 5-HAY MOON was favored in last, his first start for this barn, and he made a nice middle move but he ran out of gas late. Think he’ll display better speed with the switch to Felix in the irons and that could make all the difference in a field like this. 6-NATHANIEL’S HOPE has been improving by leaps and bounds ever since moving to this barn. He just scored his second career victory and did it with authority. Looks ready to tackle these.

Landed on 2-WILDWOOD SICILIAN in this spot. This speedy runner doesn’t seem likely to face much early competition. He’s shipping in from Fanduel but he’s been in good form and he has a history of running well on this track. Has to be caught. 3-CORTESE is hard to gauge. He’s dropping in class to face the easiest field of his career. However, he hasn’t raced in two months and his drills during that time have been few and far between. Might be vulnerable. 4-TABLE MONEY could have a say in the outcome. He’s fresh off a turf allowance victory. He might be the only one capable of pressing top choice on the lead.

6-WENT WEST is just so consistent. He’s not a strong choice in this closely-matched field but he’s always right there and with his tactical speed could get a perfect trip right behind the speed. 5-DEVIL’S TOWER can come from off the pace but think he’ll be right there fighting for the lead. He won his last two downstate and eight of his last 18 races. Guessing he’ll be right there at the finish. Not sure what to do with 2-ELI’S PROMISE never got close in last, which often spells doom to a speed horse. He was favored in that race after a few good efforts here. However, he was beaten by top choice in two of his last three.

7-LALY says catch me. She showed little in her career debut but finished second the last two times she ran against Illinois breds after leading from the start. This appears to be her weakest field yet. Shouldn’t get caught. 3-IRISH SPARK looks like the main, and possibly only, competition. She wasn’t competitive in her first three starts but has made noticeable improvements in her last three. She just finished second as the favorite in a similar field. Like that she stays on where top pick tends to fade. 4-I DID THE MATH hasn’t been competitive in four local starts but she has shown some ability downstate. Maybe the switch to Cohen in her irons will make the difference.

4-PRINCESS TENKO drops back in for a tag. She’s been in too deep lately but figures to awaken with the drop. She finished second by a neck the last time she raced at this level. She’s had far more route races, and success, going long but would think she’ll be flying late at this level. 2-LUCY JANE has been plagued by frequent layoffs. However, she generally races competitively when she does get on the track. Most of her career has been staged on tougher circuits but she shipped her for last and won convincingly. Takes on better here but still looks like a ton contender.  8-ALLOTROPE might be the best of the speed. Her “figs” don’t compare with those of some of her rivals but she often sustains that zip throughout the race.

10-LIFE’S SAGA didn’t show much in her previous starts but she was probably meeting better in those Kentucky races and she did have some trouble at the start in her lone turf sprint. Her barn does well with runners going from synthetic to turf. Could be tough in her local debut. 5-CAIRO DREAM, stablemate of top choice, has been training well for her debut. With a red hot rider in the irons, she’s sure to make an impact. 2-GEORGIA ON E’SMIND split the field in her lone turf start but she’s been running better since racing with Lasix starting in her second start. She appears to be one of the quicker members of this field. Could be right there throughout.

1-DEVIL and 4-RUMBRANDT could make a potent team for trainer Michele Boyce. Devil is quick enough to lead throughout or at least keep the rest of the speed honest while a speed duel would improve the chances of late-running Rumbrandt. Both are going from open company back into state breds which certainly helps. 6-MISS MIKOS hasn’t raced in 14 weeks but she’s been training well all along. This race will be her first against winners but her speed figures suggest she’s as fast as any in here and her apparent versatility makes her a threat no matter what kind of pace develops.

Good race. I can make a strong case for five of the runners in here but even most of the other runners are capable of winning this. I keep trying to get past 4-SAILING SOLO. He doesn’t absolutely NEEED the early lead to win this but he really has only Lavender Earl to beat to the front end. 5-SILVER QUARTERS’ last couple of starts were against tough Illinois-bred stakes races. Would expect top pick to be on the lead but this gelding, among others, is going to be flying late. 6-BATTLE SCARS is another that could have dead aim late. He beat a good allowance field in his last start. He hasn’t raced since May but you know his barn will have him ready. 2-MONSTERONTHEMIDWAY hasn’t been in the best of form lately but he’s been in against some good allowance foes. He was far more competitive when he was facing claimers. The drop helps.

5-GHAALEB'S RANGER could be dependent on an almost non-existent pace but she is finally dropping in class. She hasn’t beaten many rivals this year but this is possibly the easiest field she has even met. Expecting better. 3-QUILTING PARTY drops a few levels while making her first start for this barn. When she fires, she can make up a lot of ground. We’ll see if she can do it in her easiest field ever. 7-SUMMER AT THE SPA could be rounding into form. She owns good speed and she has been carrying it farther in her recent races. Might get to the lead and never look back.

Race 6:  10 - 3 - 2

Pick 4 Ticket: 2,3,10 / 1,4,6 / 4,5,6,7 / 1,5,8  ($54)

Tough Late P4 today…it’s a good one! I’ll start the sequence with #10 Life’s Saga (3-1), who’s been facing tougher competition out of town and has enough tactical early speed to be mid-pack in this turf sprint. Should sit just off the speed, and if Centeno can keep this filly from being too wide on the turn, she’ll have a big shot in the lane.

Race 7:  4 - 1 - 6

#4 Rumbrandt (9-2) hopes to paint a Winner’s Circle picture after the race. I see a bunch of early pace, and Rumbrandt could sit a very nice trip today. Filly has to beat the rail horse, but I like the turf-to-dirt angle and gets a big jockey upgrade to Felix. Expect a big effort.

Race 8:  6 - 5 - 7

VERY competitive group of turf runners in this claiming event. #6 Battle Scars (7-2), one of two for Trainer Block, is as consistent as they come. He’s been off since his win last time in May, but is working well for his return and should close into an honest pace. Will need his best effort and a good trip based on the competition, but is as likely a winner as many in here. Don’t take too low a price…runs in the money more than half of his turf starts for the career.

Race 9:  1 - 8 - 5

Another difficult race in this late sequence. I’ll take a bit of a flyer with the #1 Emityaaz (6-1), who is only 3-for-30 lifetime. The 5yo mare is practically guaranteed to save ground early, and the potential fave (#5) is coming off an awful performance…maybe she can’t run much anymore. If that’s true, the race is wide-open. Mojica takes over, and she’ll show some early speed from the rail. She has back-races that win, mainly on the lead or very close to it. Expect the connections to be aggressive early with this one.