Handicapper Tips & Picks

Some rider changes in this race could impact the outcome and the race dynamic. J. Felix will jump aboard #5 HAY MOON one that has shown early speed and should put pace pressure on #6 NATHANIEL’S HOPE; one looking at the Plot appears to present tactical speed though should find company today and #1 STORM’S REFLECTION with the rail and return to the TURF can show early speed. With Felix landing there that opens the mount for A. Centeno aboard #2 BOURBON LIFE one that was upgraded overall and from the place finish making a WIDE CLOSE X_FLOW in the 8/22 common race.

From that event also returning #4 EVEN THE WIND compromised by the SLOG, TROUBLE_S something of a habit for this one though afterwards showed a WIDE MOVE to get not the number with the show finish and another looking at the Plot, fits today’s race shape. 

#2 WILDWOOD SICILIAN returns to Hawthorne and conditions of the win back on 7/6. He showed up with a similar form cycle pattern – second off from a credible effort at FD. He fits today’s race shape looking at the Plot, however, does find a tougher group here than he did back in July and can be tested with the higher race par and the other Q1 runners above the ParLine to keep the early pace honest. That Fire Contention includes #6 MISTER KELLY one that looked to need the race and added ground showing up off the layoff two weeks ago and comes right back today without a drop to suggest some intent here.

That contentious and honest early pace should assist #3 CORTESE one that returns off the three month break and first time in for a tag since claimed by these connections at the end of 2022. He has a strong closing kick and should have first run on #1 MOHAAFETH. Santos picks up the mount with J. Felix shifting over to #4 TABLE MONEY another one of those EP types projecting to show early speed though can rate as he showed that dimension with the June 8^th turf win.

Going back to the July 6^th race, #5 BLOW TORCH was favored in that event and finds a subtle change today from that race moving from the inside to the outside, a favorable move for this individual. 

Another competitive group including the mare #1 SHARP HERO a local favorite, and one that is not out of it here though perhaps has a bigger hurdle today back with the rail draw and has not been as effective from that post in the past.

#2 ELI’S PROMISE picks up Felix and likely a change in TACTIC- from the 8/1 race when taken off the pace and out of his run style. While the running line and finishing position appears average he showed run especially late making a WIDE CLOSE and GALLOP+ earning a follow right back under similar conditions here. Looking at the Plot and with the inside position on #5 DEVIL’S TOWER projects to return to front running ways. Centeno will shift to the other DiVito #3 WINNEMAC AVENUE returning from the 144 day layoff and given most of his career contested at the route distance could require a race.

#6 WENT WEST returns to Hawthorne and upgraded from the 8/21 PID event making a RUSH X_FLOW and stayed on late as the race began to slow, He moves back to an outside post, a key change to look for a similar trip as the dominant win here back on 6/8 and look to get the jump on #4 NAVY SEAL one with a similar runstyle and looking to pair wins coming back from a well ridden score in that 8/1 common race with ELI’S PROMISE. 

#7 LALY projects to be a heavy favorite once again and while there were some concerns with her in that role prior, she should catch the right group today. Going back to 6/1 at 18-1 she caught the track BIAS in her favor and stepped up on 6/23 to take on open she rebounded with an improved place finish in statebred company on 7/11 the race prior to the break she returns from here.

Looking at the Plot LALY should hold the “speed of the speed” over #2 LIONS LAW though could take pressure from that runner as well as #3 IRISH SPARK one that remains protected at this level for the live DiVito barn. #5 THE LAST THRILL will look to stalk and pounce and has held her form this season with consistence even at times behind some of today’s rivals. Similar carries to #4 I DID THE MATH one that ran a winning race back on 8/10 at FD though one that requires the price compensation to make up for her deep closing runstyle. 

The class DROP is the right move for #4 PRINCESS TENKO returning here off her recent races. The change in class is less of a concern as she made her first start on this circuit back in May under today’s conditions finishing second with that race at a route distance. The change was a step up where she consistently ran her race and has held form, just not quite to the level required for the win.

There should be enough pace for PRINCESS TENKO to work a trip from off the pace in this field. The early pace is tough to grasp with the four front runners listed with the EP runstyle. #2 LUCY JANE has the Standard (current form) edge looking at the Plot over the quick returning #8 ALLOTROPE one that can show up with early speed from Surface/Distance. LUCY JANE was able to rate inside to win here on 8/15 though noted the race shape Fast early and late on the day. Number wise she ran a top figure back in 2022 breaking her maiden on an off track that stands out as one of the higher in the field and in line with the better races out of #7 MIDNIGHT’S GIRL one of two in this field with more than three career wins.

The change in class will also follow #5 COCKTAIL CUTIE making her way back to Hawthorne where she ran competitive races back in April and those events fit on par here. This will be her third start of this cycle (scratched from a conditional $16k claiming event last month at ELP) and given a flow up grade (X_FLOW) from the 7/30 FD start in a common race with the winner, #6 FANCY HILL.  

#10 LIFE’S SAGA makes a return to the turf and with competitive form all season the connections appear to show up with intent on this circuit. She showed a lot of run in her debut making  MOVE through TRAFFIC with a big GALLOP out though was exposed on distance in her second start at KEE and kept at the ONE_TURN since. She was competitive on the grass back sprinting making a WIDE MOVE after a rough start at ELP and validated that effort with the place finish last month at PID.

#3 DEAL’EM AND WEEP does not have to face her stablemate Crossanna today, the case coming off the slight freshening last month. She fits in this field in her own right and should be fit cutting back in distance noting she was entered in a MSW turf sprint on 8/15 scratched when the races came off the grass. She will face stablemate #5 CAIRO DREAM as she makes her belated debut here. She worked 10.1 at the March sale as a juvenile still growing and figuring things out in that work though physically should take to the grass and has a steady string of works to come out race ready. 

After a three win Sunday tough to dismiss anything from the M. Boyce barn especially showing up here with capable pair. #1 DEVIL wheels right back to the main track and off a sneaky good CLOSE last out on the turf. Class wise she returns to statebred company fir the first time since June and in the races this season and has shown the edge over stablemate #4 RUMBRANDT this year though RUMBRANDT did get the better of DEVIL last year in the Debutante and her runstyle can be upgraded in today’s projected race shape. DEVIL will have to be put into the race from the rail and likely to find pace pressure with others including #5 LOST SUNSET and #6 MISS MIKOS.

As far as MISS MIKOS she has consistently run some of the higher figures in this field and fits on that front as she steps up to take on winners, though will also give up some recency in this first start back in 103-days. #8 COME ON LADY was not far off MISS MIKOS earlier this season and while she must improve quite a bit to turn the tables she is one that can be left in the mix at longer odds. 

#4 SAILING SOLO will also make his second start of the cycle, though a belated return that was not necessarily planned noting four scratches with races moved to the main track since the June 15^th layoff return. His presence and early speed should hold an edge in today’s race shape looking at the Plot and regular rider, J. Felix should be assertive right from the jump.

One of those off-the-turf scratches for SAILING SOLO on 8/29 was also a scratch for #6 BATTLE SCARS one that will drop in for the tag today for the first time in his career. The drop off the win and time off can have some reservations though at this point in the season the move could make sense and would also open some starter conditions going forward. Block will also send out #2 MONSTERONTHEMIDWAY with current form though softer figures than many in this field, including his stablemate.

The inside lanes were favorable on the Sunday card and with the rail in the same spot today that could benefit #1 NILES CHANNEL one that already fits with today’s race. This will be his second start of the cycle and coming back this year has had some adversity including the EX – EXCUSE with the stumble from the gate (TROUBLES+ NO_PUSH) back in July at CBY.

#1 EMITYAAZ scratched out of a similar event on Sunday to run in this spot and shows intent by the connections. She fits today’s race shape with the complexion of this field, inside draw and O. Mojica aboard their assignment also noted with the trainer scratch last Sunday.

#3 QUILTING PARTY shows up with a drop first off the claim and two month break, something that brings some reservations though does fit today’s condition. She is winless on the year since coming back off the layoff in April, the one fact that makes this five time winner eligible for today’s race.

#5 GHAALEB’S RANGER also takes the class drop looking for her first win on the year. While her races from prior seasons and even the first part of year at Oaklawn make her a main player, the recent form and figures lack an edge over some others in this group and tough to take the current form at a shorter number.