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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Thu September 12th, 2024

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Howard's Late Pick 4

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 4:30 PM CST
Analysis by Howard Kravets

Race 6:  10 - 3 - 2

Pick 4 Ticket: 2,3,10 / 1,4,6 / 4,5,6,7 / 1,5,8  ($54)

Tough Late P4 today…it’s a good one! I’ll start the sequence with #10 Life’s Saga (3-1), who’s been facing tougher competition out of town and has enough tactical early speed to be mid-pack in this turf sprint. Should sit just off the speed, and if Centeno can keep this filly from being too wide on the turn, she’ll have a big shot in the lane.

Race 7:  4 - 1 - 6

#4 Rumbrandt (9-2) hopes to paint a Winner’s Circle picture after the race. I see a bunch of early pace, and Rumbrandt could sit a very nice trip today. Filly has to beat the rail horse, but I like the turf-to-dirt angle and gets a big jockey upgrade to Felix. Expect a big effort.

Race 8:  6 - 5 - 7

VERY competitive group of turf runners in this claiming event. #6 Battle Scars (7-2), one of two for Trainer Block, is as consistent as they come. He’s been off since his win last time in May, but is working well for his return and should close into an honest pace. Will need his best effort and a good trip based on the competition, but is as likely a winner as many in here. Don’t take too low a price…runs in the money more than half of his turf starts for the career.

Race 9:  1 - 8 - 5

Another difficult race in this late sequence. I’ll take a bit of a flyer with the #1 Emityaaz (6-1), who is only 3-for-30 lifetime. The 5yo mare is practically guaranteed to save ground early, and the potential fave (#5) is coming off an awful performance…maybe she can’t run much anymore. If that’s true, the race is wide-open. Mojica takes over, and she’ll show some early speed from the rail. She has back-races that win, mainly on the lead or very close to it. Expect the connections to be aggressive early with this one.