« 09/11/2024 09/13/2024 »
Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Thu September 12th, 2024

Download as PDF

Jim's Picks

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 2:10 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
2 Bourbon Life - 5/2 6 Nathaniel's Hope - 9/2 4 Even the Wind - 9/5

We kick off the day on the grass with a very competitive bunch as we have an Early Pick 5 carryover of $3,753. Looking to 2-BOURBON LIFE in this spot as he comes off a solid effort in his last and may get the right trip in here. With none really committed to the front, he could rate a bit closer than normal as he showed he was able to close into a very slow pace in his last. The last time Centeno was aboard was for a victory. Let's see if he can grind one out here. 6-NATHANIEL'S HOPE ran a big race in his last as he stalked the pace and drew clear late. That effort was flattered by Sharp Stick coming back for an impressive win here last Sunday. He could be the one to find himself on the lead here, much like he did in his race two back. 4-EVEN THE WIND has been solid in his four starts on the year as he comes out of the same race with Bourbon Life in his last. He has been an every other race kind of horse on the meet though and should be sitting on a big effort once again.

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 2:38 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
3 Cortese - 9/5 2 Wildwood Sicilian - 3/1 5 Blow Torch - 4/1

This is a really good bunch for $25k with a lot of classy racehorses in here. On the drop I'll give the nod to 3-CORTESE as he was a winner against better two back and ran a decent race in a very tough spot last out. He should be able to sit a bit closer early in here as he has posted three drills in between starts. He runs well fresh and picks up the hot riding Santos in the saddle today. 2-WILDWOOD SICILLIAN is the likely pace of the race as he was a good winner at this level back in July. He battled before giving way in his last at Fairmount and comes back to the Hawthorne strip where he has performed quite well. 5-BLOW TORCH comes back off a tough race in Indiana in his last where he chased and ran evenly late. He's another that has been sharp at Hawthorne as he will just need a little pace to close into.

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 3:06 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
5 Devil's Tower - 7/2 6 Went West - 5/2 3 Winnemac Avenue - 3/1

Another excellent field with all six in with a chance. 5-DEVIL'S TOWER comes out of that crazy race at Fairmount where he was clearly tons the best, yet was DQ'd and placed last. He has speed but doesn't need the lead and has won half of his 28 starts at this distance. He's game as he will be in the mix every step of the way. 6-WENT WEST is another that is always right there as he's found the board in his last five. He has tactical speed but will likely stalk the pace as he gets Colon back in the saddle with the Hawthorne return. If the pace is contested upfront, he will benefit late. 3-WINNEMAC AVENUE returns off the layoff as he sprints today. His works have been sharp, albeit spaced out but he clearly has some class, with nearly $250k in earnings from just 12 starts. Expect him to settle early and charge in the lane.

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 3:34 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
4 I Did the Math - 9/2 3 Irish Spark - 5/2 5 The Last Thrill - 6/1

I got caught by this horse last out but am willing to give one more chance to 4-I DID THE MATH as her entire race could be dictated by the break. She has been in much better form in her last three and was full of run in the lane, but if she can get away better early and get into the race it leaves her a shot. A switch to solid finisher in Cohen in the saddle today as she could provide some value. 3-IRISH SPARK made a smart move to jump back to this level in her last as she was a good second as the even money favorite. Expect her to rate close early once again. 5-THE LAST THRILL came off the layoff for her last as she ran a solid race, finishing just behind Irish Spark in that spot. It was her best effort of her short career as she looks to be headed in the right direction.

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 4:30 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
2 Georgia On E'smind - 5/1 10 Life's Saga [IRE] - 3/1 3 Deal'em and Weep - 5/2

This is a tough maiden race and there's some unknowns in here due to distance or never being on turf. One with a little turf experience who could be a pace presence is 2-GEORGIA ON E'SMIND as she makes her second start for her new barn.  She debuted last summer on the grass and chased from an outside draw. She was given time off following that start before dropping in for a tag. In her last, she chased a good winner on the dirt and didn't give way until the lane. Let's see what she shows with the return to the turf today. 10-LIFE'S SAGA ships in from Kentucky as she draws the outside here. With some speed to her inside she will have to work out a trip as she comes in off a second place effort in a short field and picks up Centeno. 3-DEAL'EM AND WEEP turns back in distance as the turf is where she belongs. She chased the entire way in her last and battled on through the lane. At this sprint distance she figures to settle early and close ground late.

Hawthorne Race 7

Post Time 4:58 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
1 Devil - 5/2 6 Miss Mikos - 3/1 5 Lost Sunset - 6/1

1-DEVIL is really long overdue for her second career score as she has raced competitively all meet long, oftentimes against open company. She has early speed but doesn't need to be on the lead and should be able to tuck in just off the pace of Air Gerri and Lost Sunset. 6-MISS MIKOS was a game winner in her last as she pressed the pace and ran on late. Cohen gets the return ride as she has been away for a few months but has worked forwardly toward her return. 5-LOST SUNSET has speed and will likely try to outkick Air Gerri to the top. She's been good in her last couple as this will be her first start against state-bred runners.

Hawthorne Race 8

Post Time 5:26 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
5 Silver Quarters - 4/1 4 Sailing Solo - 3/1 6 Battle Scars - 7/2

A very solid bunch for $20k as some classy runners drop in for the tag at the end of the meet. Coming off a game effort against stakes company in his last, 5-SILVER QUARTERS returns at a distance where he has run well and should get some pace to chase. Wales put him in a good spot against state-bred stakes runners last out and had him closing late behind a slow early pace. In here, he should be able to settle early and make one run in the lane. 4-SAILING SOLO has speed and class but will just need to shake clear of Lavender Earl early. If he can get loose, he may be tough to catch as he makes just his second start of his 9yo campaign. 6-BATTLE SCARS will need a quick and contested pace to chase as he comes in off a fine allowance win in his last. Mojica gets the return ride as he will just need to time the move to get up in time.

Hawthorne Race 9

Post Time 5:54 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
5 Ghaaleb's Ranger - 5/2 8 Paddy Gal - 7/2 1 Emityaaz - 6/1

5-GHAALEB'S RANGER is the last of a group of live runners that Scott Becker has entered on this Thursday card as she takes a bit of a class drop in search of a confidence boost. She chased in her last before tiring in the lane and is looking to get back to her form of last fall. There is some early pace in here which should allow for her to settle early and close with a rush in the stretch. 8-PADDY GAL is one that has a bit of early speed as she makes her second start back off the layoff. She posted back to back wins while on the front end prior to the rest and the distance just may not have suited her in that last start. Let's see if she is sent away from the outside draw today. 1-EMITYAAZ scratched from a spot on Sunday for this race as she gets back around two turns as well. She ran a nice race when claimed two back but was left to chase the lone lead in there. Let's see if she's more assertive from the rail draw today.