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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Fri September 13th, 2024

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Emily's Analysis

Churchill Downs Race 1

Post Time 11:45 AM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#1 COMBATTANTE makes some positive changes that could come with positive intent waiting in the wings for a CD return. Going back to her debut she broke SLOG and with a WIDE trip her physicality suggested she would progress with a STRETCH out in distance. another WIDE trip followed in her second start under an even shorter distance than the debut and returning here finds the added ground at the extended sprint distance. 

Churchill Downs Race 2

Post Time 12:14 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

This race does not have any strong standout and overall there is not much between the runners in this field, a tough spot to settle on a short price. #7 LUBU should be dismissed off the recent running lines and finishing positions. She has upside off the compromised turf trip last month and finds a rider change here. While she does require a return to a top effort, her best race fits as well as any and has shown she can compete at this level over this course keying off the 4/30 B- effort, the race she was claimed out out and stepped up on the dirt after. 

Churchill Downs Race 3

Post Time 12:43 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#8 DR. KRINGLE fits as the favorite in this race. He was competitive over this course and two turn distance earlier this year and at a higher condition. He returns today off a 39-day freshening and the drop to this level suggests intent and less concerning as they claimed back in May for $30k.

#1 COWBOY IMAGE has limited races that fit (speed) on par though in terms of current form cycle present upside. They turned in a BTL effort with the EX - EXCUSE back on 7/10 and near excuse last month (TROUBLES+ MOVE) on the HS Indy turf. 

Churchill Downs Race 4

Post Time 1:13 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#4 ENCLOSURE has been on the improve since the time off, barn change and STRETCH out in distance. She holds a win over this course and 9f picking up the MSW win in November and returned with a dominant front running (EASY LEAD LONE) win showing a different dimension and setting a Very Fast early and late pace. 

#2 QUEEN LECA perhaps holds the most upside in the second local start and off the layoff where a case can be made she has not shown her best as she had been racing in graded stakes events in S. America. 

Churchill Downs Race 5

Post Time 1:45 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#3 PULA shows up with class relief in this spot from the prior races contested with a much higher race par. That includes the return off the layoff last month where she presents a move forward (check front wrap removal) in this second start off the layoff and as a sophomore, return to L. Saez and upside from the return trip with the TROUBLE_S showing run in spots. 

PULA has shown run from off the pace and could be key in this race with both ML favorites, #4 BRUNCH PUNCH and #6 R DISASTER sharing the same runstyle and duel early to set up a runner from off the pace. 

Both #5 AMY Z and #7 MUSTANG LADY should benefit from a contentious pace for a share.   

Churchill Downs Race 6

Post Time 2:18 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Expected favorite, #7 HYMNAL has been consistent number wise though has not shown much improvement and noted for the prior connections that get horses to peak early. To be fair, the 8/2 effort was not as for her best and does appear intent with the change in circuit/class though this par closer to a lateral move. #6 LEMETATRAINER holds some appeal with the freshening and drop for today's race. They were entered in a MCL event on debut, suggesting where they thought she fit and returns to reasonable conditions here. 

Churchill Downs Race 7

Post Time 2:50 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#6 GLORIETTE should have no excuse from a pace standpoint with her early speed, though still must come with a top effort in this competitive field. 

#2 SWEET CHABLIS has some questions to answer at the sprint distance, though with that looming should hold price compensation (VALUE)  to find out. She has some buried form and the change in class is logical running for a $30 tag at this point looking for the right level on this circuit to win and the higher $56k purse compensates the connections. 

Churchill Downs Race 8

Post Time 3:22 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Both #3 FIRST CLASS LADY and #4 EVANESCENCE turned in strong efforts on debut with the place finishes and higher figures to compete here.

#7 KAI KAI earned a follow off her GREEN debut and one off the visuals that could benefit from blinkers (EQUIP) the change in play as she returns here. The race experience should also benefit #9 EUNOMIA one that caught a competitive group last month at ELP and effort given a subtle trip to move forward from the B- and figure in line with #5 TAVERNA. 

Churchill Downs Race 9

Post Time 3:54 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#3 SPEEDY TRAVELER could be the controlling speed with her E Runstyle and with today's lower SpeedRate and the tactical edge over #2 LEELOO the projected favorite. 

Churchill Downs Race 10

Post Time 4:25 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#1 BURNINHUNKOFLOVE first at this level and suggests intent they remain protected here. In addition, he has form here at CD with each of the four starts (including a win and place) contested at a higher allowance/stakes level back in his sophomore season.