Handicapper Tips & Picks

#2 TAUNTING coming into this race with a strong work tab including a 5f move last month and a big half mile breeze in 48 flat on 9/1. The horses from this barn can often tout themselves visually and something to get a look for as this race starts off the card.

#6 BABY BOAT worked 10 flat at the April sale and still growing at the time is no surprise for this one to take a little longer to make a debut. Physically he presented as one that can handle the turf (was entered for turf here last week, 9/8) though will debut on the main track here. While he does not show a work after that scratch, the overall work tab is notable; there were some published works starting back in May the current cycle picked up in late July and steady into this race.

Boyce will send out a pair: #3 FRONTIER MARSHAL should have no issue on fitness with the long work tab and will race light with R. Slevinsky aboard. #7 RUMBLING with experience another that has TURF visuals and must step up off the debut (behind stablemate winner, Takeitaway) effort overall. #1 SNEAKY FEET will also land here from that 8/25 common race and much like their debut (productive race 8/11) broke SLOG and made a late MOVE/CLOSE. The added ground should be in their favor, though the pattern of gate issues and the rail draw could be a hurdle. 

#4 CODE RUNNER returns to Hawthorne and the level of their win back on 7/7 reclaimed by trainer Hugo Rodriguez. These connections stepped up earlier this month to run in a higher conditioned race at PID where CODE RUNNER position X_FLOW behind an open length even money pacesetting winner, was unable to run his best race on the day though should provide fitness along with the upgrade here.

#2 JEFF THE LION is overdue for a win and almost had it in the 8/18 common race. He put in a big effort after the TROUBLE_S to CLOSE late and just missed. The HOT barn in play might have seen a top on the day and requires a similar effort, though could show more early speed here and with the rider change. #1 BEEALEA also from that event fits at this level and a more confirmed closer can be upgraded off the subtle trip will pick up T. Wales the win rider from back in June at FD. #7 COOL QUARTET should look to show more early speed (Q1) today something he will be forced to use from the outside and still requires a top effort given his races this season, races that fit on par though in line with the others, lacking any strong edge once again. 

#5 MONEY AGENT found the right level when they made the drop to MCL company earlier this season pairing up strong efforts back in April. Today’s par is similar and presents upside in this second start of the cycle coming back from the 8/25 race given a less than ideal ride and flow upgraded with the Very Fast early and late pace – the flow assisting #4 CRUZIN N CURSIN (5yo) in their place finish.

Perez will also send out #2 DRAFTSMAN from that event and one that perhaps has not shown his best yet. He looked to require the DROP going back to the debut last year and some conditioning with the layoff lines this season. He also returns from that 8/25 event and much like the first two continued to break SLOG though was in hand/NO_PUSH the rest of the way.

#3 TIGGER ATTACK will make the change back to MCL company and return to the route distance . His effort back on opening day (3/23) was outclassed for the MSW rivals, though the figure on the day stacks up as one of the stronger in this field. The number in line with #6 CAPTAIN’S FLAG one coming off two straight loss as a heavy favorite and lateral move with the barn change into this spot with the distance change and quick turnaround. The DROP also comes in play for #1 MY LAST ESCAPADE one that has shown progression race to race and in addition to the MCL move will also stretch out to a route in this third start. 

The two R. Martinez runners shipping in add heat with their natural and preferred (EP) early speed stretching out to a route distance here. Both runners follow an “every other” pattern giving the edge on the upswing to #3 BOISE here. He should be under the radar with the 8/3 running line and finishing position sitting on top of the pp’s along with the change in distance. The route distance is a change though preferred for BOISE over stablemate #6 MEDAL OF FACT in general and in today’s race. BOISE holds a win around two turns from back in April and going all the way back to the beginning of his career was one running almost exclusively around two turns and competitive with some of his higher figures at the time. His recent route win was showed tactical speed, though can rate and finish, again keying off the distant races something not shown on the current (Standard) Plot.

The early pace should be very honest looking at the Plot with the Sun Contention, five of the seven to the left of the y-axis and more than half the field above the ParLine playing a role in the 43 SpeedRate. The complexion of that early pace includes  #1 KHOZAN’S SUCCESS wheeling right back and with the rail draw today where they project to get into the mix early, though must improve with the quickness and should find wagering support once again. The pace should set up for #7 CANTSTEALMYTHUNDER (in addition to BOISE) with his run style and finding the class relief returning to this circuit and conditions where he fits keying off the place finish (B OptixGRADE) under similar when claimed back in June. 

The distance of the Preakness creating a new dimension for this group that have knocked heads and run competitive races this season. The main players return from the 8/18 showdown where #2 MO SMOKIN took advantage of the race shape (FLOW) and the front end to upset. The upset was up for grabs as #1 IZZY’S MONSTER looked a bit vulnerable on the day with favorable race shapes pairing wins in May/June and then forced to work HARD for the July score – something that gives her a chance to rebound here. #6 MEMPHIS CASH QUEEN was a new face last month and held her own on the class rise projects to run another honest effort here.

Looking at the Plot, those three all Q1 Squares should be in a race of their own, however if there is some type of battle, #7 DESSERT FIRST (the new face today) could look to sneak into a “setup” style trip. 

#7 BAH HUMBUG is one of two KY invaders with upside and intent wheeling back for this race. She has the benefit of the two (or more) turn experience and fitness should not be an issue given the prior outside post positions finding a better draw today. The debut projected to gain experience with the SLOG and WIDE run and improved last out at KYD showing better gate speed before a WIDE MOVE X_FLOW outside horses to push pace showing try before losing ground – and outside slightly against the profile.

#4 WHERE’S THE WINE turned in a BTL effort against the group last month at ELP and should transfer her form to this circuit. The distance change will be in play stretching out here though the connections have shown intent for a route race keying off a 7/5 scratch when the races were taken off the ELP turf.

In terms of the local runners, #6 DEAL’EM AND WEEP and #3 MACHIVA with the class edge exiting the 8/25 common race with competitive efforts on the day and would look for a wraps removal on #2 DATAW ISLAND as she makes her second start back off the layoff. 

Looking at the Plot, the race shape is a tough puzzle and the lack of a confirmed from runners the Standard (current form) Plot has a near vacant Quad I. Moving to Surface/Distance #5 SOVIET STANDARD could take up that role and finds a race shape similar to when he has been successful. Intent could follow as he makes his second start of the cycle, restless in the GATE on 8/25 and picks up a significant weight break with 10-lb bug, H. Ortega picking up the mount.

#4 MALIGATOR took the drop last month looking for a belated win and while he came up short in show, he ran his race with the WIDE CLOSE and strong GALLOP+ - a trip they will look for her with his usual off the pace (Q4) runstyle. #3 IMPERIAL MOMENT finds a similar Plot position today as the race on July 21^st though an upgrade in shape shifting to a Square on both Standard and Surface/Distance. The form cycle is also a similar “second off” with the 8/29 event, a first start after 39-days on the bench. Trip will be key for their stablemate #10 STOLICH though looking at the Plot, they are not out of it and could find a favorable scenario.

F. Bahena also will be represented by a pair with #7 JIM AND JIM cutting back to a sprint for this race and should make a run looking at the Plot and how his stacks up by comparison in this field. #9 MR. FROST might have a hidden pace advantage with the Standard Plot though softer on figures and class (red/pink Past 3 Runlines) where a top effort is required. 

The clever idea with #3 GO EMI nearly got there at 42.8-1 last out and while he the form not nearly as “buried” today can be given a look right back. Class wise he might have been a touch short (B-) though right back under similar conditions in a race without a real strong, stand out “horse to beat” could catch the right group. He will find a rider change as O. Mojica takes over from W. Rodriguez, the rider that came in town to ride GO EMI last month.  

As far as riders, D. Cohen sticks with #4 READTHECLIFFNOTES and noted as he had been aboard #9 C F V BULLET last out and the June win as well as #10 SOUL COAXING this season for his prior connections. M. Boyce has been sending out live and probably would make their meet for “Clifford” to pick up a win before the end of season.

Another rider change for #5 CADET CORPS with L. Colon picking up the mount, a rider that has been aboard in the past including a win here last April. Today’s group could be taken as a lateral move for this one that has been consistent all season though catches a full field of established dirt horses. The change in class with a slight rise is noted for #2 RICKY BOBBY one that could find public support for the connections and as a “new face” in this field – looking at the Plot requires some price compensation for pace. They were entered here under similar conditions in the 8/8 event (vet scr) and the connections will race for a tag today, though have more than made up for the $10k he was claimed for back in April at Oaklawn Park. 

Mojica was aboard #1 COLOSSEO for his first and only stateside win to date back in December at Turfway Park. The tactics that day on the lead (similar on 5/13) established a LONE lead and carried the field to a 20-1 upset, tough to expect the same price here. While he fits in this race and appears well intended for a win, trip must still be considered with today’s race shape and other E/EP types in this field especially #4 AHEADOFTHEGAME and #6 WICKED SURPRISE in this field. #5 BAKENEKO controlled a moderate pace (PRESSED FLOW) last out though not a “need the lead” type as shown outside of Q1 on the Plot.

#9 SIMPLE LOGIC is who he is as an individual and finds a reasonable level and group in this open $10k event. Outside of current form and strong connections, his runstyle could be the biggest edge in this race where trip/Plot should suit. #2 SON OF GRACE is the only other runner as a Square on Standard and Surface/Distance upgrading him in this spot and one that should be overlooked in this field and off the recent running lines and finishing positions.