Handicapper Tips & Picks

#3 THE J FACTOR looks tough with the big drop with figures and X_FLOW upgrade from the recent starts. The drop and giving up recency (52-day) break comes with some reservations though in context of the field, still must be considered the horse to beat.

#4 DRAMA QUEENIE does not have as strong of figures though makes a similar change in class, X_FLOW (upgrade) from the 9/1 event and the edge in local experience. She has some question makes all around and when it comes to finishing ability though is encouraging with A. Centeno back aboard and turning in a published work on 9/15. #5 SITTING ON A BEACH also takes the big drop for this race and can compete keying off the sprint effort/figure back in June, a competitive race/strength, though will give up recency off the two month break and only shows one published work since the most recent start, that work on 8/8 more than a month ago.

#6 ARRINGTON is the most established maiden in this field with many starts under similar conditions. She has recorded some of her stronger efforts here at Hawthorne, something that upgraded here returning to this circuit and given a freshening after the incident earlier this year at HS Indy to reset and regroup with the positive response earlier this month. She has consistently recorded figures on par for the level and with many in this field that have shown early speed, that potential dynamic should assist her late run. 

#7 VERRAZANOINTHESKY is upgraded in the second start of the cycle the return to statebred company and with the added ground from the race earlier this month. His overall form and figures stack up on par and in good hands with J. Felix taking over. Class and figures fit on #4 TEMPLE FOOL though gives up recency off the two month freshening and distance change to overcome that requires some price compensation.

#10 LATE BLACKSMITH will make a first start on the turf though has the physicality to handle the surface switch. The change comes with a positive form cycle pattern and early speed in this third start of the cycle and has their top figures from back in June that fit on par. #3 NAGY AND DA BEARS also with some early falls into that more obvious, logical category and left in the mix.

In terms of the Vance Childers runners #9 PONCHO ATTACK has the stronger form and established turf sprint form giving him the edge at this point over stablemate #6 BRUCE ATTACK one that comes into this race lighter on numbers though another that could present a move forward on the TURF based on his physicality. 

#3 WHERE YA AT VINCE looks to hold in high regard for the connections and some intent for this one all around as he was cross entered in a G1 stakes on the AE before landing in the allowance last week. In a move not too common for this barn, they wheel right back to make this second start off the layoff from KY Downs where they were part of an honest pace and noted with the top two finishers including the 45-1 winner, came from off the pace with WHERE YA AT VINCE as part of that early pace and a subtle Plot upgraded here.

Just about half of the field shares the E/EP runstyle, something that should assist #2 CALL ME ICE MAN as he makes a return off the win and 56-day freshening back to Hawthorne. Going back to earlier this season he was in similar N1 company and subtle trips with the less than ideal ride sprint in May and a route distance outside of his ideal back in June where he was not asked (NO_PUSH) late upgrading him with the SHORTER projection in July picking up the CNL win.

#1 LUNDBURG is one of those EP types and likely to take up the E role with the rail draw and returning C. Emigh aboard. He also ran in the 6/29 N1 allowance common race with CALL ME ICE MAN and less than ideal trip for him that day when he stumbled at the start (TROUBLE_S) and raced in TRAFFIC after taken out of his runstyle and to his credit found his way into the number and rebounded with the two open length wins after. 

#4 DI’S SURPRISE made her first career start on the dirt during the first part of the meet and showed early speed and handled the surface; just taken over late by more experienced stalk-and-pounce rivals in that March debut. She has moved forward with the racing and as good a time as any to return to the dirt and find some class relief on this circuit in the second start back off the freshening.

#9 ABSOLUTE MIRACLE was also in the 3/31 MSW with DI’S SURPRSE earlier this season with some trouble in her own right on the day. She will make her first start in against winners though has foundation this season and progressive numbers that fit on par with today’s race and field. The connections were clever looking to run as a MTO though did not officially enter that way last month making a WIDE MOVE picking up a strong win to clear the MSW condition. The complexion of this field and the outside draw could set up a similar trip and even a similar outcome.

#6 SECRET OPERATION has held her own at this level picking up checks and consistent figures this season. With that said she might not present the right value today should the ML hold, the one knock where she has been of greater appeal in some of the other races this season at double digit odds. The early pace should be contentious to set up her run style and could even make a case for longshot #8 LUNARCHY looking at OptixPLOT as a Q4 Square to get in the deeper minors picking up horses late. 

#6 COWGIRL FRANKIE makes a return to the TURF for this first time this season and waiting for her to return to the grass picking up on her physicality and off the sneaky good TURF races last season. Those effort fit on par, her runstyle fits today’s race shape and looks to hold intent second off the layoff with the changes here and picking up D. Cohen, a rider that does not often ride for this barn – two starts this season including a show finish with I DID THE MATH (MSW) last week.

#9 ROYAL LAUGHTER find some positive changes for this race as she returns off the  159-day layoff. The connections had her pointed to Oaklawn this season and peaked for the 3/3 race when she took a tough beat on the day and arguably best together and clear in a win photo. That effort put her “over the top” for the next two starts and should look to rebound here and take to the TURF a surface she handled and intended for keying off last year, her sophomore season.

#3 ANNA AFTER MIDNIGHT has been looking for the turf in the three recent starts and since the barn change claimed by Meraz. The number id not come back very strong on 8/11 with the distant place finish, though could be upgraded as she did RUSH up to a chase a Very Fast early pace in a race that was just as Very Fast late. She can be given another flow-upgrade (X_FLOW) on 8/29 and with the shorter distance as well as moving towards the inside with the draw in today’s race. #5 TRIBEST has also raced up close to Fast paces since the maiden win and could try a different tactic with the rider change. She still requires a lot in her favor (and price compensation to play – similar for #10 GETOUTOFMYKITCHEN) though not out of it to stick around for a share. 

#5 BRUCE BANNER returns to Hawthorne the scene of his two wins and back with J. Felix the rider aboard for those wins. The connections will also return under similar conditions from the June 30^th race where he turned in a competitive effort, B- OptixGRADE, with a different race dynamic that race with the Fire Contention and higher 72 SpeedRate compared to today’s Plot, moving him into the Above category.

Joel Campbell also finds the ABOVE upgrade with #6 HOPPIN JOHN one that has held his own with the minor finishes in allowance company stepped up in class off the claim back in June and taking the DROP today back to claiming company, though still not all the way down a positive sign as well as Mojica remaining aboard.

#4 PATH TO SUCCESS was reclaimed by E. Rodriguez and a positive sign for these connections that have campaigned this runner since 2022. They looked to be waiting to pick him back up and did just that when entered at this claiming level last month and with the 42-day freshening back under similar conditions and with D. Cohen aboard, the rider up from the higher claiming races earlier this meet, a further positive.

#1 VANISKY shows up as the new face on this circuit and while he will give up the recency off the bench and 307-day layoff, he fits at this level off his figures and class closer to a lateral change from the races out in California. He is a versatile type to handle the dirt and with the rail draw and success on the front end last July, those could be the tactics here from A. Centeno. 

C. Block has a strong hand in this race with a pair: #8 ANGER RISING will make their second start back off a long layoff and cutting back in distance after setting an honest pace tracked by the eventual winner, Mandalorian and holding off a solid rival in Azoi to keep place; #9 LICENSE TO STEAL has been looking for the TURF all season with just the lone grass race last month running evenly. The extreme SPACED race shape did not impact eventual chalk winner, Pilkington and might have to improve once again with today’s group.

#5  BRODY comes into this race off the layoff with some of the consistently higher figures and based on his physicality should take to the TURF. The 146-day layoff is noted with some gaps in the works to overcome though does reunite with Bendezu, one that has had some success for this barn and the rider aboard for the BLANKET finish back in March (a race that held form with two next out winners), the barn looking for their first win on this Hawthorne turf in quite some time.

Number wise both #1 RED RIZZLER and #2 DOMINANT D stack up off their sprint races, however class is another hurdle all together on the win end and similar concerns as things need to unfold perfectly for the 7yo #4 GOOD YEGG though another minor share is not out of the question. #6 BLACK RUSSIAN also has some class concerns stepping up to MSW company though on an every other pattern with some of his more competitive races over this course and distance this season. 

#6 RED MOSCATO returns to the level where he was competitive (B) back on 8/8 and held his fitness from the event just two weeks ago. With progressive figures in this current cycle, a pattern to suggest they are sitting on a peak effort.

#5 ALIBI IKE takes a big drop returning here though perhaps not as concerning as he was claimed back in February for $7500 and looking for a spot where they can compete as the meet enters the final weeks. Centeno, the maiden win rider and place finish from back in June remains aboard as a positive.

#3 STOLICH could make some noise at double digit odds. He will make his third start of the cycle, was competitive along with RED MOSCATO in the 8/8 common race and should appreciate the move off the rail from 3 weeks ago, a post position that has fallen on him many times this season and throughout his career. 

Will look to get creative with #3 PINBALLER in this spot. There is enough to make the case he is not the “most likely” though as much as that is the case so is his capabilities and should present value to compensate. Starting off the year he was “racing into shape” waiting for the turf season and made his way to the grass on 6/22 though compromised by the DELAY and X_WIDE trip returning to the turf only one other time this season, a sneaky good CLOSE in the 7/28 common race behind the open length pacesetting winner, Tightrope.

Looking at the Plot, the early pace should be contentious with #2 MCVICKER along the inside and three outside runners #6 RIVZONAROLL, #7 MIDNIGHT SPECIAL and #8 DRAGON DREW also with tactical speed  to set up PINBALLER with their late run. A similar pace scenario should assist #1 GRAND HIDEAWAY one that might appear a little more obvious off their consistent turf form; making a belated return from that 7/28 event though the time off was not the plan as they have been patient waiting for turf, a couple of scratched under similar conditions.

#5 CHANNEL WON also quite obvious and likely to hold as projected by the morning line favoritism in this spot. The 10yo has returned this season in form with back to back wins at CBY and lands under similar conditions back at Hawthorne with a live rider as D. Cohen picks up the call for T. Tracy, the two teamed up for win over this course and distance with Talons Time earlier this month. 

A tremendous Thursday card kicks off with maiden sprinters as the one favorite that figures to stand out should get the job done in the opener. With a few in here with early speed, things could set up nicely for 3-THE J FACTOR to rate and rally as she takes the drop for trainer Brad Rainwater. She has been on the grass in her last couple and the start two back was key as she rated and ran on late on the grass. Look for her to settle and rally in the lane. 5-SITTIN ON A BEACH tried the grass in her last and never really got into the mix. His sprint two back was better than looks on paper as the class drop and hot riding Slevinsky could have her in the mix. 4-DRAMA QUEENIE has speed and is another that just needs some relief. I expect she is sent for the top but will need to try to clear Sweet Smila if she wants a chance to hang around late.

The first of three turf sprints and four grass races on the card with the first of many evenly matched fields to line up. There's some pace, but not a ton in here, which could set things up nicely for 5-A P BLAZING GREEN to rate and rally late. He ran a solid race against open allowance runners in his last as he had to overcome a troubled start in that spot. With the move back to the state-bred ranks, and a clean trip, he should be flying late. 4-TEMPLE FOOL has been successful on the turf and will shift to the sprint for this spot. He's another that could benefit from a contested pace upfront early as a strong finisher with Emigh in the saddle will help. 8-JJ'S SOLUTION is another that is better on turf as Mojica takes the return ride today. He broke his maiden at this distance on grass and is another that will welcome the return to state-bred company.

The first of a pair of allowance sprints on the dirt as this spot looks to have an abundance of speed. With multiple likely to go, 2-CALL ME ICE MAN may be sitting on a perfect trip as he comes back off the layoff. He has three works since his last start and posted a huge figure in his last. He could bounce, but if he doesn't he will be tough at a price. 1-LUNDBERG has speed and draws the rail as he comes off back to back scores. This is a step up today but if he runs back to the start two back when Emigh was aboard he should be tough once again. 5-WILLIE BIRD has speed as he was a sharp winner in his last. He has a couple of works since that start and while he showed speed in his last couple, I expect him to rate and rally today.

The second of our dirt allowance sprints in a spot where the favorites stand out a bit more. Although the recent races have been on grass, 4-DI'S SURPRISE has the class and runs for top connections. Cohen is back in the saddle once again as this one gets into this race as she ran for the tag in victory two back. 6-SECRET OPERATION could benefit if the pace is contested upfront in here. She gets back to the dirt which will help her chances as her start at this level three back shows she belongs. 9-ABSOLUTE MIRACLE is one with speed but she should be able to dictate her trip from the outside. Centeno gave her a good ride in her last as she tracked early before moving to the front on the turn and drawing clear late. The added sixteenth off that last trip could only help today.

Another very evenly matched field with a few in here that can show some speed. With the pace complexion of the race as well as the class drop, 6-HOPPIN JOHN could be sitting on a winning performance today. He looked to be a smart claim for $5k four back and has run respectable races in the allowance ranks in his last three. With the drop in for the tag, I expect he sits closers and challenges late. 5-BRUCE BANNER is one that could get a perfect stalking trip as he returns from a good performance at Colonial last out. He has been at his best at Hawthorne as Felix returns in the saddle. 4-PATH TO SUCCESS will need that pace to chase as he runs back to the same level of the claim. Cohen was aboard earlier in the meet as it is a positive sign to see Rodriguez claim this one back.

Back to the grass as there's no major standout in here. Have to give the nod to the connections as Chris Block has had a great meet and runs 9-LICENSE TO STEAL in here. He sprinted on the dirt in his debut in a race taken off the grass as that was the first of three starts at that instance. He finally found turf in his last for a two turn event and showed some run late. With the move to the sprint, he will need some pace to close into but should be charging in the stretch. 10-LONE RETURN has tactical speed as he has posted some good turf races recently. This distance may suit him best as his race on June 15 makes him a factor. He's another that could come running strongly late. 1-RED RIZZLER has also sprinted on the turf earlier in the meet as he figures to save ground and close well. He may need some racing luck if along the inside in the lane but if he finds it he could be poised for an upset performance.

Another highly competitive event where the favorite could be upset. Looking at the pace, there's not a ton of speed in here but maybe enough for 9-MINING CAMP to work out the right trip. He was a clear winner two back before running a game race against better in his last. Slevinsky is back aboard today as this looks to be a winning spot. 8-CHAMPAGNE MIKE dropped to this level in his last and posted a strong effort. With that stalking trip and a second start at this level, he's another that can't be dismissed. 6-RED MOSCATO is another that drops back to this level, where he just missed two back. He should be tracking the leaders early in here and figures to run on in the lane.

The card opened with what looks to be a strong favorite and closes in similar fashion as the classy 5-CHANNEL WON is in a perfect spot. At 10 years old he is still going strong, winning three of four on the year. He's won 15 times on the turf in his career and should be rolling late. 8-DRAGON DREW is another tough old runner as the 9yo also is having a good season. From the outside he should be able to track the leaders early as the price should be right. 3-PINBALLER has raced well in his last four and is another that could be well positioned in here. If the pace is contested ahead of him, look for him to try to get the jump on the closers in the stretch.

Weird race. There are many dropping several levels. 3-THE J FACTOR is one of them. She’s making her first start for a trainer that hasn’t been around for a while but was successful here in the past. She’s also turning back in distance and going from turf to dirt. She has decent route speed but meets many sprinters that have been tiring in their races. So, it’s unlikely that she’ll contest the early pace but could finish full of run. 1-SWEET SMILA has been running competitively at this level. She’s one of many with speed but at least we know she can carry her speed the distance while others have been stopping badly. 5-SITTIN ON THE BEACH is another dropper and another going from turf to dirt. She finished up the track in all her races but if she could run back to her second race, she would be highly competitive against this group.

Not sure there’s anyone who can challenge 3-NAGY AND THE BEARS on the lead. He finished fourth in last, his first start against winners, but that was a far tougher group than this. Can see him getting to the lead quickly and holding off all comers. 4-TEMPLE FOOL has had some decent recent turf efforts. However, those races were routes. He is turning back in distance for this. He finished fourth in his only previous turf sprint. 5-A P BLAZING GREEN could possibly be a bit quicker than top pick, who is his stablemate. However, he’s been having some issues lately getting out of the gate. If he can manage to break alertly in this race, he could prove to be the one to catch.

Very nice, competitive event. Went with 3-WHERE YA AT VINCE. His speed figures might indicate that he’s a step slower than some in here but think he’s going to be the quickest from the gate. He tired late in his last two, both on turf, but he was a game winner on Keeneland‘s main track when he broke his maiden. The switch back to dirt can make all the difference. 9-PROFESSOR HIGGINS is likely to be overlooked in the wagering, and his lone dirt race leaves a lot to be desired, but he does look like he could be the best closer in a race that is likely to feature a blistering early pace. 5-WILLIE BIRD, stablemate of top choice, seems to be getting better with every start. He graduated in last. Will have to fight for the lead but could be up to the challenge.

4-DI’S SURPRISE’s lone dirt race was nothing to write home about but she has turned into a talented runner since they moved her to turf. That’s why it’s surprising that they are switching her back to dirt. She does have the highest numbers but those were achieved on the weeds. Guess we’ll see how it works out. 9-ABSOLUTE MIRACLE showed marked improvement since adding blinkers. She finished third in her first race with them and then graduated in last. She’s had two sharp drills since her maiden win. If top pick doesn’t handle the main track, this is probably the filly they have to beat. 6-SECRET OPERATION returns to the main track. She has been doing well enough on the lawn, her lone win was a turf victory, but her dirt speed figures suggest she’s the fastest on this surface.

Late running 10-GETOUTOFMYKITCHEN could finally be in the right spot. Although she was kind of a speed demon earlier in her career, she has been a bit more proficient since getting claimed by this barn. Gets a veteran rider for her return to dirt. With three possible fighting for the lead, she should get an honest pace to run at. 8-MADELYN ATTACK has gotten better with every passing turf race. She just graduated in maiden claimers at this distance. Could continue to improve. 4-BABE IN THE WOODS is another recent maiden winner. She improved greatly since moving to the lawn. She came from off the pace to win last but she’s just as capable when pressing the pace.

6-HOPPIN JOHN jumped in class after getting claimed by this barn but she was still surprisingly effective while racing against tough allowance company. Takes a realistic drop back into the claiming ranks. If recent races are any gauge of success, he should be tough at this level. 7-SLAVA UKRAINI couldn’t handle the company or the distance in his last couple but he’s shortening up and dropping back into straight claimers. He was narrowly beaten the last couple times he raced against similar, finishing second both times. 4-PATH TO SUCCESS gets the perfect pace to run at. This recent claim will be flying late. Could get up in time.

8-ANGER RISING finished second behind a tough winner in last but he needed the race. He was making his first start since February. Turns back in distance and moves back to the lawn, both strong moves for his barn. Should be better prepared for this event. 2-DOMINANT D looks like the best speed but he might not really be that fast. You can be pretty sure he’ll be tackled quickly on the front end. But he is bred for the lawn and he might be a much better individual in his turf debut. 1-RED RIZZLER looked sharp in his first turf start for this barn. He finished second in that start after finishing a non-competitive sixth in his turf debut. Last was obviously a step in the right direction. Improvement could be forthcoming.

5-ALIBI IKE seems like he should win this but there is no guarantee. He’s dropping a few levels while coming off a three-month layoff with few drills but this is probably the right level. 6-RED MOSCATO has had three races this meet. In two of them he was overmatched and ran like it but in the other, at this level, he finished second, only a half-length back. 7-SENDEMDOWNTHEROAD could be the best of the speed. He did tire in last, his first start against winners, but he might be able to grab an uncontested lead in this race which would improve his chances.

5-CHANNEL ONE looks like a standout. He’s running for the first time in three months but he has continued to train well during that time. He is a proven commodity off layoffs. He won three of his four races so far this year. Guessing he adds to his success today. Have to give 2-MCVICKER another look. He hasn’t been on the weeds since he broke his maiden in Indiana last year but he does look like he could be among the best of the speed. 8-DRAGON DREW is back from Indiana. He beat an easier group in that race but he has also run well against rivals at this level. He’s good on the front end or coming from off the pace. Figures to be a major player either way.

Race 6:  6 - 9 - 4

Pick 4 Ticket: 4,6,9 / 1,5,8 / 5,6,8 / 1,2,4,5  ($54)

#6 Hoppin John (4-1) drops down from allowance company into a MUCH easier spot, $12.5 claimers. His closing kick should be very useful in a race where a decent early pace should ensue. He’s one good trip away from the winner’s circle.

Race 7:  1 - 5 - 8

Turf sprints are always a bit tricky and trip-dependent. There’s also a big difference between 5f and 5.5f…closers have a much better chance at the longer distance. #1 Red Rizzler (6-1) is improving and should appreciate that extra distance…a rail trip is coming and the son of Texas Red seems to like the turf.

Race 8:  8 - 5 - 6

With the main speed directly to his inside, #8 Champagne Mike (9-2) should stalk that one and have a chance to go by in the lane, getting first run on the closers. He was a bit wide on the turn and goofy in the lane. If he minds his manners, he can beat this field today.

Race 9:  4 - 1 - 2

Wide-open optional claiming turf sprint ends the card….I’m going to take a flyer with #4 Threefiftyseven (10-1) for Trainer Bahena and Jockey Reyes, who are hitting at 17% as a combo in the last two years at Hawthorne. Reyes was aboard the gelding last time when he stalked and pounced to a victory in an off-the-turf event. Now he steps up, but showed a decent run on the turf two back. I know he’s 0-for-8 on the turf in his career, but he’s in good form and maybe has turned a corner. Just don’t have confidence in the “likely winners.”