Handicapper Tips & Picks

Weird race. There are many dropping several levels. 3-THE J FACTOR is one of them. She’s making her first start for a trainer that hasn’t been around for a while but was successful here in the past. She’s also turning back in distance and going from turf to dirt. She has decent route speed but meets many sprinters that have been tiring in their races. So, it’s unlikely that she’ll contest the early pace but could finish full of run. 1-SWEET SMILA has been running competitively at this level. She’s one of many with speed but at least we know she can carry her speed the distance while others have been stopping badly. 5-SITTIN ON THE BEACH is another dropper and another going from turf to dirt. She finished up the track in all her races but if she could run back to her second race, she would be highly competitive against this group.

Not sure there’s anyone who can challenge 3-NAGY AND THE BEARS on the lead. He finished fourth in last, his first start against winners, but that was a far tougher group than this. Can see him getting to the lead quickly and holding off all comers. 4-TEMPLE FOOL has had some decent recent turf efforts. However, those races were routes. He is turning back in distance for this. He finished fourth in his only previous turf sprint. 5-A P BLAZING GREEN could possibly be a bit quicker than top pick, who is his stablemate. However, he’s been having some issues lately getting out of the gate. If he can manage to break alertly in this race, he could prove to be the one to catch.

Very nice, competitive event. Went with 3-WHERE YA AT VINCE. His speed figures might indicate that he’s a step slower than some in here but think he’s going to be the quickest from the gate. He tired late in his last two, both on turf, but he was a game winner on Keeneland‘s main track when he broke his maiden. The switch back to dirt can make all the difference. 9-PROFESSOR HIGGINS is likely to be overlooked in the wagering, and his lone dirt race leaves a lot to be desired, but he does look like he could be the best closer in a race that is likely to feature a blistering early pace. 5-WILLIE BIRD, stablemate of top choice, seems to be getting better with every start. He graduated in last. Will have to fight for the lead but could be up to the challenge.

4-DI’S SURPRISE’s lone dirt race was nothing to write home about but she has turned into a talented runner since they moved her to turf. That’s why it’s surprising that they are switching her back to dirt. She does have the highest numbers but those were achieved on the weeds. Guess we’ll see how it works out. 9-ABSOLUTE MIRACLE showed marked improvement since adding blinkers. She finished third in her first race with them and then graduated in last. She’s had two sharp drills since her maiden win. If top pick doesn’t handle the main track, this is probably the filly they have to beat. 6-SECRET OPERATION returns to the main track. She has been doing well enough on the lawn, her lone win was a turf victory, but her dirt speed figures suggest she’s the fastest on this surface.

Late running 10-GETOUTOFMYKITCHEN could finally be in the right spot. Although she was kind of a speed demon earlier in her career, she has been a bit more proficient since getting claimed by this barn. Gets a veteran rider for her return to dirt. With three possible fighting for the lead, she should get an honest pace to run at. 8-MADELYN ATTACK has gotten better with every passing turf race. She just graduated in maiden claimers at this distance. Could continue to improve. 4-BABE IN THE WOODS is another recent maiden winner. She improved greatly since moving to the lawn. She came from off the pace to win last but she’s just as capable when pressing the pace.

6-HOPPIN JOHN jumped in class after getting claimed by this barn but she was still surprisingly effective while racing against tough allowance company. Takes a realistic drop back into the claiming ranks. If recent races are any gauge of success, he should be tough at this level. 7-SLAVA UKRAINI couldn’t handle the company or the distance in his last couple but he’s shortening up and dropping back into straight claimers. He was narrowly beaten the last couple times he raced against similar, finishing second both times. 4-PATH TO SUCCESS gets the perfect pace to run at. This recent claim will be flying late. Could get up in time.

8-ANGER RISING finished second behind a tough winner in last but he needed the race. He was making his first start since February. Turns back in distance and moves back to the lawn, both strong moves for his barn. Should be better prepared for this event. 2-DOMINANT D looks like the best speed but he might not really be that fast. You can be pretty sure he’ll be tackled quickly on the front end. But he is bred for the lawn and he might be a much better individual in his turf debut. 1-RED RIZZLER looked sharp in his first turf start for this barn. He finished second in that start after finishing a non-competitive sixth in his turf debut. Last was obviously a step in the right direction. Improvement could be forthcoming.

5-ALIBI IKE seems like he should win this but there is no guarantee. He’s dropping a few levels while coming off a three-month layoff with few drills but this is probably the right level. 6-RED MOSCATO has had three races this meet. In two of them he was overmatched and ran like it but in the other, at this level, he finished second, only a half-length back. 7-SENDEMDOWNTHEROAD could be the best of the speed. He did tire in last, his first start against winners, but he might be able to grab an uncontested lead in this race which would improve his chances.

5-CHANNEL ONE looks like a standout. He’s running for the first time in three months but he has continued to train well during that time. He is a proven commodity off layoffs. He won three of his four races so far this year. Guessing he adds to his success today. Have to give 2-MCVICKER another look. He hasn’t been on the weeds since he broke his maiden in Indiana last year but he does look like he could be among the best of the speed. 8-DRAGON DREW is back from Indiana. He beat an easier group in that race but he has also run well against rivals at this level. He’s good on the front end or coming from off the pace. Figures to be a major player either way.