Handicapper Tips & Picks

#3 SAMARITA had every right to rebound after the 7/28 EX – EXCUSE and did just that with the win last month. She projects to hold her form and compete right back under similar conditions here and in the compact field. Her stablemate #4 MY LADY SLEW is less consistent though can pop with a big effort from time to time and returns here as a X_FLOW upgrade from the 8/22 turf start.

#2 FIRST KITTEN will get a lot of attention with the place effort in the 8/25 common race though might have had to work HARD for that minor award and with a similar runstyle and buried form, #1 RACEDAY ATTIRE should offer value of the two. 

The rider change to C. Emigh appears positive on #4 CAPTAIN’S FLAG as they wheel back for this race in a week and second start off the claim. A live rider for this barn and with this horse has been up for the place and show finishes, the two in the money outcomes in his career.

#1 KEYSER should be sitting on a peak effort with a forward form cycle pattern and changes in this race from race shape, post position and rider change with A. Centeno taking over. His current form should be overlooked with the recent running lines and finishing positions, though has recorded some of the higher figures in this field and numbers on par keying off the July race at 5f, shorter than his ideal.

In terms of the early speed #3 MALIBU BRAD (Square) hold the edge over #2 ULTIMATE FIGHTER (Circle) in this spot. With that said, MALIBU BRAD has shown some gate issues in his recent starts though moved up with the class change to this $6250 level and should be competitive once again in today’s group.

#7 CUCUY will get a chance to rebound in this second start off the layoff and changes for this race. He returns as a slight flow upgrade from the 8/25 event and should be fit from that route event back around one turn. #1 DRAFTSMAN also returns from that race and in his third start off the layoff with the change in class that should assist once again. 

#4 SHARP STRIKE project to IMPROVE off the 8/8 and the class change earlier this month and did just that with the place finish. He has a look right back under similar conditions. A similar upgrade to #5 WOLF HUNTER one that projected to be overlooked and was not the case lacking value at 2.4-1 though should land higher here despite the show finish in that 9/5 common race.

#3 RICKY’S BEST can also be given another look with the EX - EXCUSE on the day. His trip was rough start to finish and appeared intent showing up both on the turf and removal of the front wraps. He could present longer odds today off the recent running line and rider change as L. Colon takes over. That will see O. Mojica shift to #2 I O FEDRO one that also had been looking for the TURF and MCL level though must improve off the two recent starts with the C+ OptixGRADE and paired PLODDY Keywords. 

#2 ACCELERATING BABE wheels right back after adversity as the favorite three weeks ago. She was forced to RUSH after TROUBLE_S taking contact at the break and WIDE outside horses in a fast part of the race. Looking at the Plot, she should find a favorable tracking trip and appears intent with the timing, claiming and D. Cohen aboard.

#1 HIGHWOOD could also be given an upgrade off her races in this current cycle and class change here. She was part of the Very Fast early pace on 7/25 and another X_FLOW trip on 8/31. The rail draw once again could force their hand though does not find as high of a SpeedRate as the July race or the Fire Contention as noted in August.

Any type of contentious pace should assist #6 FOREVER BLESSED one that does benefit from today’s SHORTER distance in this second start off the layoff and in claiming company, though number wise sits below par and BELOW across the board. #3 SEQUAYA also has a strong late kick and while she must find her best races to compete here there was some intent (early money) last out and has competitive races at times in her career. #4 DIAMONDS JOY also should benefit from the SHORTER distance here though also must improve as her better races to date are below some of today’s rivals and should get attention off connections. 

The early weather report projects some rain so adjustments might need to be made with surface/scratches: With the race as-is, the early pace should be honest with the 45 SpeedRate and 8 of the 9 runners sharing the E or EP RunStyle. That moves up #6 YO DAWG in today’s race shape as well as their current form and 8/29 trip with the TROUBLES+ (hopped straight up at the start) and made an X_FLOW MOVE in the place finish with IMPROVE visuals all around. The race shape could also set up #4 TABLE MONEY one that has a similar Standard Plot position/Shape as a tracking Quad II Square something to noted with today’s 5f distance lacking the same early speed as others in this field. 

#1 GO STORMIN GIRL looked to need the race coming off the 45-day freshening earlier this month. Despite the 5^th place result, it was a competitive B- effort making a MOVE behind the front running winner, Sweet Crystal, over a course tough to make up ground. She finds a similar condition while reuniting with C. Emigh the win rider from earlier this season and has shown intent with that rider change. The track profile also noted for #7 RUNNERS HEAT from that common race though to her credit has moved forward in this current cycle.

A contentious early pace should assist #5 LADY ATLANTIC one that benefit from the race shape and in the best part of the BLANKET finish pulling off the 75-1 upset back in June. Her form has been consistent all season with that race not as much of an “shock” as the odds suggested and her better races this season – common running lines with GO STORMIN GIRL – fit on par.  

#4 LUCY JANE takes a significant drop  she wheels right back for this race on the 10-day turnaround. There are some concerns with that move and timing even as the meet winding down and makes for a fit at this condition. She could be given a pass as she was fractious in the GATE perhaps playing a role in the NO_KEEP. She has been effective on the lead and could be the tactic in play here and a similar tactic could be projected for #2 QUEENIES WAY where A. Centeno lands today based on her more competitive races to date and returning from the layoff. 

#4 TRAIL RIDGE ROAD has been compromised with the compact fields, race shapes and surfaces switches this season to suggest upside especially as those factors change for today’s race. She comes into this event in form and with the right running style (Plot) in today’s group.

Her C. Block stablemate #7 FACCIA BELLA picked up the win at this level as the favorite last out in the 8/22 common race aided by the TACTIC+ and race FLOW where she will be required to improve noting a lower race par that day and noted for #6 MISS RIVER RAT as well. #8 WILD ABOUT HILARY also returns from that event, though perhaps the one to upgrade with the race flow (VF early/late) and in overall form cycle returning here. A similar upgrade to #2 CAT ATTACK and could play a role in the Circle shape here though still must show up with a top effort and requires the right number.

#5 GUANA CAY looks to be entered as “MTO” without the official designation like the other two MTO in this field. Most of GUANA CAY better races to date were contested on the main track including the win here back in July and was entered MTO officially on 8/22 unable to get that surface change to draw in on the day. #9 JOURNEYIST could also appreciate a move to the main track though still holds some class weakness/AVERAGE+. 

#2 RUSSIAN TO WIN finds closer to a lateral change in class though perhaps greater intent in this spot with the changes second off the claim. He can be upgraded further racing WIDE against the profile and under less than ideal TACTIC- playing a role in the outcome.

#5 BREAKING NEWS looks well spotted here with the drop looking to find the right group after the rise in class following the three race win streak earlier this season. While finishing off the board in the most recent start he turned in a strong figure on the day and under a higher race par than today’s event. That gives him the edge over rival #7 CHARLIE LIGHTNING stepping up off his races this season, despite holding a similar Plot position as a Quad I Square, however just below the ParLine - also noted for #8 ALYANAABI.

#3 CHRISTMAS PRESENT has returned to top form and competitive races this season. He will return with a subtle change in class from the 38-day freshening though not out of it looking at the Plot to secure the right trip. 

#7 LOTTA ROSES can rebound here returning from an EX – EXCUSE under similar conditions in the 8/25 common race. She lost her race out of the GATE making a mess of the break and chased in hand (NO_PUSH) most of the running while showing a sneaky late close behind open length PERFECT trip winner, #9 APRIL’S GEM.

#8 SILKY WARRIOR did not have a full “trip” excuse on 8/4 though forgivable as far as form cycle stepped in class off a HARD fought win without much recovery time. She has been given plenty of time to regroup with the 49-day break and reclaimed by F. Villa lands here back with J. Felix in the saddle.

#4 IT’SFIFTYSHADETIME has some versatility when it comes to surface and with races on par. There are some question marks with the layoff and with the 10-lb apprentice making their second start this season and only 2 ITM finishes in the 42 starts to date.

The early pace should be contentious with rail runner #1 ALL ABOUT ME and her stablemate APRIL’S GEM taking up the Quad I position and joined by #2 TIZ A COUNTRY GIRL also in Quad I in a strong position as a Square above the ParLine, though could be flattered and tested noting three Red Keywords with the PERFECT/TACTIC+ trips.

#3 KINGSBURY DREAM has held her form this season and pairing B- OptixGRADES at this level and a flow upgrade CLOSE from 8/25. She will require another move forward and a lot of racing luck with her off the pace RunStyle though still respected here. Stablemate #6 ROMANTIC ATTACK has had some subtle trips in the two starts at this level this season and shown run in spots. She is tough to make a strong case for, requires a lot of price compensation, though one to keep in the vertical mix. 

Kick off the day with the final leg of the filly and mare Starter sprint series. 3-SAMARITA has shown she is willing to battle and comes off a sharp score in her last. Mojica rode her in her two most recent victories and should be willing to rate if others go. 2-FIRST KITTEN will be hoping for a contested pace upfront as she looks to rate and rally in the lane. She has gotten away slowly in her last couple of starts and overcame the poor break for a win two back. Let's see if she can get away in good order today. 5-TRIPLE SCOUT has tactical speed as she should be in a good stalking spot today. She may look to sit back a bit off the pace in here before closing late. Let's see if she can rate today.

Off the last start, 2-ULTIMATE FIGHTER figures to look to clear once again and possibly cruise along on the front end. He made the top in his last and nearly stole that race while coming off the lengthy layoff. With that race under his belt, he has every right to improve today. 5-GRAY MIKE has run fourth in his last three races and will just be looking for some pace to chase. With Slevinsky aboard once again, look for him to be picking off some runners in the lane. 6-KEYSER is another that could close some ground late as he has run some competitive races in the past. If he can get to his start from three races back he should be able to sneak into the mix underneath.

Not a ton of pace in this race as it looks like those with some early foot could be quite tough. Looks like 4-SHARP STRIKE should be quite tough in here off his last race. He has consistently improved in his starts, narrowly missing in his most recent race. If he can rate close as he did in that spot, he should be able to pounce in the lane and clear late. 6-ALL ABOUT TONITE has speed and looks to be able to make the lead. He comes off a bit of a layoff into here and just one short work. If he is able to sneak away to the top and low things down, he may never look back. 3-RICKY'S BEST was one I was waiting for for some time to get onto the grass and he finally did in his last. Unfortunately he posted a bit of a disappointing effort in that spot. Let's give him one more shot.

Coming off three consecutive second place efforts, 2-ACCELERATING BABE looks to be knocking on the door for a win at this level.  She has tactical speed but could having company if she leaves for the top. Let's see if she can settle early and look to run on in the lane. 1-HIGHWOOD is one with some speed who may also look to leave from the rail. She drops off her last and merits a look if at a price. 4-DIAMONDS JOY has been on the grass for the majority of her career but her two starts in races taken off the grass have been competitive. She takes a significant drop here and is clearly the horse to beat.

Coming off the last start, 6-THINK BLUE should be primed for a victory in this spot. She stalked the pace and narrowly got up in time as she was chasing the lone speed. In here, with the lack of pace in this race, she could sit closer early and look to get the jump at the top of the stretch. 4-LUCY JANE is one with some speed who takes the class drop today. She was the winner in a race that set up perfectly for her two back. Last out she was sent away and cleared but gave way when challenged. Let's see if she is sent again. 1-GO STORMIN GIRL is another that could show speed but doesn't need the lead to win. She loves this track as she has found the board in 24 of 34 starts at Hawthorne. From the rail I expect her to rate close early and threaten the entire way.

The movement to the turf is the key as this is a very talented bunch but the running styles are different on grass compared to dirt. On turf, 4-TRAIL RIDGE ROAD looks to be sharp as she should be rating mid-pack early and closing ground in the lane. Cohen has aboard aboard the last three starts and returns once again in the saddle. With pace to the inside, she should be able to rate and get the jump on the closers. 6-MISS RIVER RAT has also been very good on the grass for her last three as she should also come running late. She has never missed the board in nine starts over the track and figures to be right there once again. 7-FACCIA BELLA was a good winner in her last as she rallied from well back to run by in the stretch. She comes off a short rest into here and with an easy work. She will need that pace to chase though and may have to work a bit in the stretch.

The drop in class has to get the job done for 5-BREAKING NEWS as he has been excellent at Hawthorne and at the distance. He has speed but doesn't need the lead to win. Centeno is a fit in the saddle and should put this one in a perfect stalking spot. 7-CHARLIE LIGHTNING also has speed and does figure to get sent for the top. He was a good winner two back and chased in his last. Let's see if he can clear in here or if he will have company. 3-CHRISTMAS PRESENT is another that loves this Hawthorne strip and will benefit if the pace is contested upfront. He has run well with Slevinsky aboard and gets her back in the saddle once again.

Let's see what the pace scenario is as I'm hopeful there's enough pace to close into. 3-KINGSBURY DREAM will need that pace to chase as she has the ability to rate and rally in the lane. She has just the one turf win but has found the board in 12 of 22 turf starts. With the added 16th, that could provide the time for her to rally. 9-APRIL'S GEM stalked the pace before taking over into the lane and drawing away late. She steps up to the starter rank but is in for the tag as she could be a better value with the class hike. 2-TIZ A COUNTRY GIRL has won her last couple by daylight as she takes a step up in class as well. Cohen rode last out and stays aboard even after the claim.

3-SAMARITA trounced most of this field in last, leading every step of the way as the even money favorite. Could face a bit more pressure on the front end of this race but it might not amount to much. Guessing she wires them again. 2-FIRST KITTEN, like top choice, won a leg of this series. Unlike top pick, however, she does her best running late. She might be able to catch Samarita if some of the other runners in this field try to tackle the early lead. 5-TRIPLE SCOUT has a chance to get close if they take her off the pace and not try to fight for the lead.

2-ULTIMATE FIGHTER just finished second when dropped to this level for the first time. That was his first race of the year. Once again, he appears to be the one to catch and this time he’ll be running with the benefit of a recent race under his belt. 3-MALIBU BRAD has been in good form since dropping to this level. He finished a little less than a length behind top choice when they met in last. Will need to show a bit more to beat that rival today. 4-CAPTAIN’S FLAG drops and turns back in distance. He has had some success versus rivals similar to these in the past.

I know it’s supposed to rain quite a bit over the weekend but this turf course is so incredibly dry and all the watering in the world isn’t going to help as long as the temps remain much hotter than normal. So, I’m thinking that 6-ALL ABOUT TONITE might be able to steal this on the front end. He showed speed but stopped in his previous turf races but he is in good form on dirt and he might be able to coast on a fairly easy lead. 4-SHARP STRIKE just missed when dropped to this level for his last start. He was able to stalk the early pace and move to contest the lead late. He came within a neck of winning it all. Maybe he’ll get by all of them today. 5-WOLF HUNTER closed well when dropped to this level for last. He finished third as the favorite. However, his efforts were hampered by the pedestrian pace of the race. Unfortunately, he might have to overcome that same obstacle today. But do like the switch to the veteran rider.

Not sure a dirt sprint is the right place for 4-DIAMONDS JOY but she is dropping a few levels to take on these rivals. Her turf sprint speed figures seem to indicate that she’s the fastest member of this field. She ran well in her only two dirt races, both routes. Can win this at a short price or could prove to be a vulnerable favorite. 2-ACCELERATING BABE has been in mostly good form this year. She finished second in last, her local debut, for her third straight second-place finish. Got claimed from that spot. We’ll see if this speedy mare can continue her streak of good form. 1-HIGHWOOD has speed and the rail and she drops one more time. At this level they could have a tough time catching her.

Maybe time for an upset. This race is filled with speed…some of it classy, some of it not so much. But, at least early, the front end could be a very busy place. That could set things up for a closer. 4-TABLE MONEY fits that description. He has had only one turf race, a sprint, which he won and paid nearly $50. He won’t be that kind of price today but his connections couldn’t ask for a better pace scenario. 6-YO DAWG has been the model of consistency in his turf races. He has yet to win but he did finish in the money in eight of his nine grass events. His speed figures suggest that he’s slower than some in here but you have to like his consistency. 3-WHATDOYOUTHINKMARK races for the top barn. He’s dropping in class and addling blinkers. He does tend to run out of gas late in his races but his rider, welcome back E.T., is one of the best ever at holding speed horses together late.

6-THINK BLUE has had two races here at this level; one back in April and the other a couple weeks ago. She lost the April race by a swiftly vanishing head and the most recent race by a rapidly vanishing nose. She’s far from a standout but after those two local starts, she should be considered the one to beat. 1-GO STORMIN GIRL is often tough here. She showed little in her last start, finishing a few behind top pick, but she has bounced back from dull efforts before. Gets Emigh back in her irons and he has finished in the money the last three times he rode her, including a win. 4-LUCY JANE drops. She was game in her first start of the meet and won going away but she stopped badly late in last. So, the drop makes perfect sense. Should never be far off the lead.

Forget 3-WANDA STRONG’S last race. She had no shot when the race was moved from turf to dirt. But she wired the fields in her previous two races. But she has also run well when coming from off the pace. Think she’ll go off at a far higher price than she should. Could be the value play. 6-MISS RIVER RAT could be hard to hold off no matter who is on the lead. She narrowly missed in her last two starts but finished with a full head of steam. Gets an extra sixteenth mile to utilize in this race. That can make all the difference. 7-FACCIA BELLA comes from far back. Probable favorite, however, might not get the quick pace needed to unleash his big late move. Could be vulnerable.

It’s getting to be the end of the meet so it not too surprising to see runners dropping in class to try to score. 5-BREAKING NEWS is a perfect example. He’s been running well enough at higher levels but he was very tough when running at this $5k level. His last race was the first time he finished out of the money since his first start of the year. He’s going to be a major player in this one. 3-CHRISTMAS PRESENT also drops. He won two of his last three and three of last five. Looks as tough as any. 7-CHARLIE LIGHTNING is loaded with speed and he’s been in good form. Wouldn’t be too surprised if he led from start to finish.

2-TIZ A COUNTRY GIRL looks like she should be tough on turf but with her pedigree she might be even better if this race did get moved to a wet dirt track. She has been good on all surfaces but has yet to run in the slop. Maybe today. 9-APRIL’S GEM just crushed the field at this level in her last start. She had been somewhat competitive in recent races but that last was her best effort in at least a year. Let’s see if she can repeat. I’m going to give 1-ALL ABOUT ME another chance. She ran well in her first start for this barn, was overmatched in her second, and didn’t handle the dirt in last after the race was moved from the lawn. If this race does stay on grass, she has a legitimate chance to surprise. 

Race 6:  6 – 4 – 1

Pick 4 Ticket:  1,2,4,6 / 4,6,7 / 2,3,5,7 / 1,2  ($48)

#6 Think Blue (2-1) should sit right off of speedy #4 Lucy Jane. The 5yo mare is 2^nd off a brief layoff and has more class on paper than many others in this field. I like the jockey switch, and any efforts close to the ones he ran downstate will get him the victory today.

Race 7:  4 – 6 – 7

Nice turf allowance….#4 Trail Ridge Road (7-2), owned and trained by Team Block, is a nice Ill-bred who’s pocketed close to $200k. Her form is dirtied up in the last two, which were turf races rained off to the dirt. There is rain in the forecast on Sunday, but it’s been VERY dry this month in Chicago. Even if it rains, let’s hope the race stays on the turf. She has plenty of turf efforts good enough to win if she runs her best.

Race 8:  2 – 3 – 5

#2 Russian to Win (6-1) ran last weekend. But, Trainer Villia has done this before with success. He is NOT a turf horse, so running back on dirt today is a positive. In case it’s wet, he’s also 2-for-4 on wet dirt. I see jockey Felix sitting off the speed and making a good run in the lane…dangerous at a price.

Race 9:  2 – 1 - 7

I don’t necessarily like to pick a horse on top that won her last by 5 lengths…her first one on turf. But #2 Tiz a Country Girl (5-2) is in fine fettle, and has been given time off since that last win. I’m a little concerned about the lack of works since that victory, but trainer Martinez is having a very solid meet, plus places jockey Cohen on her back, so I assume she’s ready to go. You might want to tread lightly with Tiz…but a good trip should be coming today from the inside draw.