Handicapper Tips & Picks

#3 SAMARITA had every right to rebound after the 7/28 EX – EXCUSE and did just that with the win last month. She projects to hold her form and compete right back under similar conditions here and in the compact field. Her stablemate #4 MY LADY SLEW is less consistent though can pop with a big effort from time to time and returns here as a X_FLOW upgrade from the 8/22 turf start.

#2 FIRST KITTEN will get a lot of attention with the place effort in the 8/25 common race though might have had to work HARD for that minor award and with a similar runstyle and buried form, #1 RACEDAY ATTIRE should offer value of the two. 

The rider change to C. Emigh appears positive on #4 CAPTAIN’S FLAG as they wheel back for this race in a week and second start off the claim. A live rider for this barn and with this horse has been up for the place and show finishes, the two in the money outcomes in his career.

#1 KEYSER should be sitting on a peak effort with a forward form cycle pattern and changes in this race from race shape, post position and rider change with A. Centeno taking over. His current form should be overlooked with the recent running lines and finishing positions, though has recorded some of the higher figures in this field and numbers on par keying off the July race at 5f, shorter than his ideal.

In terms of the early speed #3 MALIBU BRAD (Square) hold the edge over #2 ULTIMATE FIGHTER (Circle) in this spot. With that said, MALIBU BRAD has shown some gate issues in his recent starts though moved up with the class change to this $6250 level and should be competitive once again in today’s group.

#7 CUCUY will get a chance to rebound in this second start off the layoff and changes for this race. He returns as a slight flow upgrade from the 8/25 event and should be fit from that route event back around one turn. #1 DRAFTSMAN also returns from that race and in his third start off the layoff with the change in class that should assist once again. 

#4 SHARP STRIKE project to IMPROVE off the 8/8 and the class change earlier this month and did just that with the place finish. He has a look right back under similar conditions. A similar upgrade to #5 WOLF HUNTER one that projected to be overlooked and was not the case lacking value at 2.4-1 though should land higher here despite the show finish in that 9/5 common race.

#3 RICKY’S BEST can also be given another look with the EX - EXCUSE on the day. His trip was rough start to finish and appeared intent showing up both on the turf and removal of the front wraps. He could present longer odds today off the recent running line and rider change as L. Colon takes over. That will see O. Mojica shift to #2 I O FEDRO one that also had been looking for the TURF and MCL level though must improve off the two recent starts with the C+ OptixGRADE and paired PLODDY Keywords. 

#2 ACCELERATING BABE wheels right back after adversity as the favorite three weeks ago. She was forced to RUSH after TROUBLE_S taking contact at the break and WIDE outside horses in a fast part of the race. Looking at the Plot, she should find a favorable tracking trip and appears intent with the timing, claiming and D. Cohen aboard.

#1 HIGHWOOD could also be given an upgrade off her races in this current cycle and class change here. She was part of the Very Fast early pace on 7/25 and another X_FLOW trip on 8/31. The rail draw once again could force their hand though does not find as high of a SpeedRate as the July race or the Fire Contention as noted in August.

Any type of contentious pace should assist #6 FOREVER BLESSED one that does benefit from today’s SHORTER distance in this second start off the layoff and in claiming company, though number wise sits below par and BELOW across the board. #3 SEQUAYA also has a strong late kick and while she must find her best races to compete here there was some intent (early money) last out and has competitive races at times in her career. #4 DIAMONDS JOY also should benefit from the SHORTER distance here though also must improve as her better races to date are below some of today’s rivals and should get attention off connections. 

The early weather report projects some rain so adjustments might need to be made with surface/scratches: With the race as-is, the early pace should be honest with the 45 SpeedRate and 8 of the 9 runners sharing the E or EP RunStyle. That moves up #6 YO DAWG in today’s race shape as well as their current form and 8/29 trip with the TROUBLES+ (hopped straight up at the start) and made an X_FLOW MOVE in the place finish with IMPROVE visuals all around. The race shape could also set up #4 TABLE MONEY one that has a similar Standard Plot position/Shape as a tracking Quad II Square something to noted with today’s 5f distance lacking the same early speed as others in this field. 

#1 GO STORMIN GIRL looked to need the race coming off the 45-day freshening earlier this month. Despite the 5^th place result, it was a competitive B- effort making a MOVE behind the front running winner, Sweet Crystal, over a course tough to make up ground. She finds a similar condition while reuniting with C. Emigh the win rider from earlier this season and has shown intent with that rider change. The track profile also noted for #7 RUNNERS HEAT from that common race though to her credit has moved forward in this current cycle.

A contentious early pace should assist #5 LADY ATLANTIC one that benefit from the race shape and in the best part of the BLANKET finish pulling off the 75-1 upset back in June. Her form has been consistent all season with that race not as much of an “shock” as the odds suggested and her better races this season – common running lines with GO STORMIN GIRL – fit on par.  

#4 LUCY JANE takes a significant drop  she wheels right back for this race on the 10-day turnaround. There are some concerns with that move and timing even as the meet winding down and makes for a fit at this condition. She could be given a pass as she was fractious in the GATE perhaps playing a role in the NO_KEEP. She has been effective on the lead and could be the tactic in play here and a similar tactic could be projected for #2 QUEENIES WAY where A. Centeno lands today based on her more competitive races to date and returning from the layoff. 

#4 TRAIL RIDGE ROAD has been compromised with the compact fields, race shapes and surfaces switches this season to suggest upside especially as those factors change for today’s race. She comes into this event in form and with the right running style (Plot) in today’s group.

Her C. Block stablemate #7 FACCIA BELLA picked up the win at this level as the favorite last out in the 8/22 common race aided by the TACTIC+ and race FLOW where she will be required to improve noting a lower race par that day and noted for #6 MISS RIVER RAT as well. #8 WILD ABOUT HILARY also returns from that event, though perhaps the one to upgrade with the race flow (VF early/late) and in overall form cycle returning here. A similar upgrade to #2 CAT ATTACK and could play a role in the Circle shape here though still must show up with a top effort and requires the right number.

#5 GUANA CAY looks to be entered as “MTO” without the official designation like the other two MTO in this field. Most of GUANA CAY better races to date were contested on the main track including the win here back in July and was entered MTO officially on 8/22 unable to get that surface change to draw in on the day. #9 JOURNEYIST could also appreciate a move to the main track though still holds some class weakness/AVERAGE+. 

#2 RUSSIAN TO WIN finds closer to a lateral change in class though perhaps greater intent in this spot with the changes second off the claim. He can be upgraded further racing WIDE against the profile and under less than ideal TACTIC- playing a role in the outcome.

#5 BREAKING NEWS looks well spotted here with the drop looking to find the right group after the rise in class following the three race win streak earlier this season. While finishing off the board in the most recent start he turned in a strong figure on the day and under a higher race par than today’s event. That gives him the edge over rival #7 CHARLIE LIGHTNING stepping up off his races this season, despite holding a similar Plot position as a Quad I Square, however just below the ParLine - also noted for #8 ALYANAABI.

#3 CHRISTMAS PRESENT has returned to top form and competitive races this season. He will return with a subtle change in class from the 38-day freshening though not out of it looking at the Plot to secure the right trip. 

#7 LOTTA ROSES can rebound here returning from an EX – EXCUSE under similar conditions in the 8/25 common race. She lost her race out of the GATE making a mess of the break and chased in hand (NO_PUSH) most of the running while showing a sneaky late close behind open length PERFECT trip winner, #9 APRIL’S GEM.

#8 SILKY WARRIOR did not have a full “trip” excuse on 8/4 though forgivable as far as form cycle stepped in class off a HARD fought win without much recovery time. She has been given plenty of time to regroup with the 49-day break and reclaimed by F. Villa lands here back with J. Felix in the saddle.

#4 IT’SFIFTYSHADETIME has some versatility when it comes to surface and with races on par. There are some question marks with the layoff and with the 10-lb apprentice making their second start this season and only 2 ITM finishes in the 42 starts to date.

The early pace should be contentious with rail runner #1 ALL ABOUT ME and her stablemate APRIL’S GEM taking up the Quad I position and joined by #2 TIZ A COUNTRY GIRL also in Quad I in a strong position as a Square above the ParLine, though could be flattered and tested noting three Red Keywords with the PERFECT/TACTIC+ trips.

#3 KINGSBURY DREAM has held her form this season and pairing B- OptixGRADES at this level and a flow upgrade CLOSE from 8/25. She will require another move forward and a lot of racing luck with her off the pace RunStyle though still respected here. Stablemate #6 ROMANTIC ATTACK has had some subtle trips in the two starts at this level this season and shown run in spots. She is tough to make a strong case for, requires a lot of price compensation, though one to keep in the vertical mix.