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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sun September 22nd, 2024

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Jim's Picks

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 2:10 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
3 Samarita - 1-1 2 First Kitten - 5-2 5 Triple Scout - 6-1

Kick off the day with the final leg of the filly and mare Starter sprint series. 3-SAMARITA has shown she is willing to battle and comes off a sharp score in her last. Mojica rode her in her two most recent victories and should be willing to rate if others go. 2-FIRST KITTEN will be hoping for a contested pace upfront as she looks to rate and rally in the lane. She has gotten away slowly in her last couple of starts and overcame the poor break for a win two back. Let's see if she can get away in good order today. 5-TRIPLE SCOUT has tactical speed as she should be in a good stalking spot today. She may look to sit back a bit off the pace in here before closing late. Let's see if she can rate today.

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 2:38 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
2 Ultimate Fighter - 2-1 5 Gray Mike - 8-1 6 Keyser - 12-1

Off the last start, 2-ULTIMATE FIGHTER figures to look to clear once again and possibly cruise along on the front end. He made the top in his last and nearly stole that race while coming off the lengthy layoff. With that race under his belt, he has every right to improve today. 5-GRAY MIKE has run fourth in his last three races and will just be looking for some pace to chase. With Slevinsky aboard once again, look for him to be picking off some runners in the lane. 6-KEYSER is another that could close some ground late as he has run some competitive races in the past. If he can get to his start from three races back he should be able to sneak into the mix underneath.

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 3:06 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
4 Sharp Strike - 2-1 6 All About Tonite - 5-1 3 Ricky's Best - 10-1

Not a ton of pace in this race as it looks like those with some early foot could be quite tough. Looks like 4-SHARP STRIKE should be quite tough in here off his last race. He has consistently improved in his starts, narrowly missing in his most recent race. If he can rate close as he did in that spot, he should be able to pounce in the lane and clear late. 6-ALL ABOUT TONITE has speed and looks to be able to make the lead. He comes off a bit of a layoff into here and just one short work. If he is able to sneak away to the top and low things down, he may never look back. 3-RICKY'S BEST was one I was waiting for for some time to get onto the grass and he finally did in his last. Unfortunately he posted a bit of a disappointing effort in that spot. Let's give him one more shot.

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 3:34 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
2 Accelerating Babe - 5-2 1 Highwood - 9-2 4 Diamonds Joy - 2-1

Coming off three consecutive second place efforts, 2-ACCELERATING BABE looks to be knocking on the door for a win at this level.  She has tactical speed but could having company if she leaves for the top. Let's see if she can settle early and look to run on in the lane. 1-HIGHWOOD is one with some speed who may also look to leave from the rail. She drops off her last and merits a look if at a price. 4-DIAMONDS JOY has been on the grass for the majority of her career but her two starts in races taken off the grass have been competitive. She takes a significant drop here and is clearly the horse to beat.

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 4:30 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
6 Think Blue - 2-1 4 Lucy Jane - 3-1 1 Go Stormin Girl - 5-2

Coming off the last start, 6-THINK BLUE should be primed for a victory in this spot. She stalked the pace and narrowly got up in time as she was chasing the lone speed. In here, with the lack of pace in this race, she could sit closer early and look to get the jump at the top of the stretch. 4-LUCY JANE is one with some speed who takes the class drop today. She was the winner in a race that set up perfectly for her two back. Last out she was sent away and cleared but gave way when challenged. Let's see if she is sent again. 1-GO STORMIN GIRL is another that could show speed but doesn't need the lead to win. She loves this track as she has found the board in 24 of 34 starts at Hawthorne. From the rail I expect her to rate close early and threaten the entire way.

Hawthorne Race 7

Post Time 4:58 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
4 Trail Ridge Road - 7-2 6 Miss River Rat - 9-2 7 Faccia Bella - 5-2

The movement to the turf is the key as this is a very talented bunch but the running styles are different on grass compared to dirt. On turf, 4-TRAIL RIDGE ROAD looks to be sharp as she should be rating mid-pack early and closing ground in the lane. Cohen has aboard aboard the last three starts and returns once again in the saddle. With pace to the inside, she should be able to rate and get the jump on the closers. 6-MISS RIVER RAT has also been very good on the grass for her last three as she should also come running late. She has never missed the board in nine starts over the track and figures to be right there once again. 7-FACCIA BELLA was a good winner in her last as she rallied from well back to run by in the stretch. She comes off a short rest into here and with an easy work. She will need that pace to chase though and may have to work a bit in the stretch.

Hawthorne Race 8

Post Time 5:26 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
5 Breaking News - 3-1 7 Charlie Lightning - 2-1 3 Christmas Present - 5-1

The drop in class has to get the job done for 5-BREAKING NEWS as he has been excellent at Hawthorne and at the distance. He has speed but doesn't need the lead to win. Centeno is a fit in the saddle and should put this one in a perfect stalking spot. 7-CHARLIE LIGHTNING also has speed and does figure to get sent for the top. He was a good winner two back and chased in his last. Let's see if he can clear in here or if he will have company. 3-CHRISTMAS PRESENT is another that loves this Hawthorne strip and will benefit if the pace is contested upfront. He has run well with Slevinsky aboard and gets her back in the saddle once again.

Hawthorne Race 9

Post Time 5:54 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
3 Kingsbury Dream - 9-2 9 April's Gem - 4-1 2 Tiz a Country Girl - 5-2

Let's see what the pace scenario is as I'm hopeful there's enough pace to close into. 3-KINGSBURY DREAM will need that pace to chase as she has the ability to rate and rally in the lane. She has just the one turf win but has found the board in 12 of 22 turf starts. With the added 16th, that could provide the time for her to rally. 9-APRIL'S GEM stalked the pace before taking over into the lane and drawing away late. She steps up to the starter rank but is in for the tag as she could be a better value with the class hike. 2-TIZ A COUNTRY GIRL has won her last couple by daylight as she takes a step up in class as well. Cohen rode last out and stays aboard even after the claim.