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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sun September 22nd, 2024

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Howard's Late Pick 4

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 4:30 PM CST
Analysis by Howard Kravets

Race 6:  6 – 4 – 1

Pick 4 Ticket:  1,2,4,6 / 4,6,7 / 2,3,5,7 / 1,2  ($48)

#6 Think Blue (2-1) should sit right off of speedy #4 Lucy Jane. The 5yo mare is 2nd off a brief layoff and has more class on paper than many others in this field. I like the jockey switch, and any efforts close to the ones he ran downstate will get him the victory today.

Race 7:  4 – 6 – 7

Nice turf allowance….#4 Trail Ridge Road (7-2), owned and trained by Team Block, is a nice Ill-bred who’s pocketed close to $200k. Her form is dirtied up in the last two, which were turf races rained off to the dirt. There is rain in the forecast on Sunday, but it’s been VERY dry this month in Chicago. Even if it rains, let’s hope the race stays on the turf. She has plenty of turf efforts good enough to win if she runs her best.

Race 8:  2 – 3 – 5

#2 Russian to Win (6-1) ran last weekend. But, Trainer Villia has done this before with success. He is NOT a turf horse, so running back on dirt today is a positive. In case it’s wet, he’s also 2-for-4 on wet dirt. I see jockey Felix sitting off the speed and making a good run in the lane…dangerous at a price.

Race 9:  2 – 1 - 7

I don’t necessarily like to pick a horse on top that won her last by 5 lengths…her first one on turf. But #2 Tiz a Country Girl (5-2) is in fine fettle, and has been given time off since that last win. I’m a little concerned about the lack of works since that victory, but trainer Martinez is having a very solid meet, plus places jockey Cohen on her back, so I assume she’s ready to go. You might want to tread lightly with Tiz…but a good trip should be coming today from the inside draw.