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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Thu September 26th, 2024

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Ron's Picks

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 2:10 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
5 Slava Ukraini - 4/1 3 Mister Charming - 5/2 2 Wildwood's Warrior - 10/1

5-SLAVA UKRAINI has been running over his head for much of the meet but he’s finally dropping to a better level. Not sure how much “heart” he has left after recent trouncings but if he has anything still there, he should be the best of this group. 3-MISTER CHARMING hasn’t won in years but he’s usually competitive when racing at the right level and this is that level. He isn’t likely to try for the lead but he should never be far back. Has a legit chance to win this. 2-WILDWOODS WARRIOR will occasionally display good speed, as he did in last at 66-1. Might be the only one to challenge top choice early.

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 2:38 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
6 Findaway - 9/2 4 Atkins - 5/2 7 Chaos Reigns - 3/1 1 Gluckstadt - 8/1 5 Danville - 4/1

Hard to count anybody out of this race. Can’t imagine anybody beating 6-FINDAWAY to the lead. He stopped badly as Churchill in last but he was in a pretty salty group at Churchill. Stretches out for the first time but is bred to go long. Maybe he’ll last the distance. 4-ATKINS has been in pretty good form. He was meeting much easier claimers not long ago but he narrowly lost his last at this level. He could be the best of the closers in this field. If top pick doesn’t break alertly, 7-CHAOS REIGNS most certainly will. He wired fields in three of his six races this year. Can do it again. 1-GLUCKSTADT and 5-DANVILLE will be set loose late.

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 3:06 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
4 Stable Currency - 7/2 3 Goldenageactress - 9/2 8 Classycowtownlady - 8/1

No guarantee that this race stays on turf but since so few in here have even raced, just going to stick with turf picks. 4-STABLE CURRENCY was no match for the talented winner in her career debut but she was easily second best. Runners from her barn continue to improve as they race. The longer distance of this even could work in her favor. 3-GOLDENAGEACTRESS doesn’t sport the fastest drills but she has been training regularly and she does get the top jock as pilot for her debut. 8-CLASSYCOWTOWNLADY has speed, a nice turf pedigree, and a rider that will get her out of the gate quickly. Plus, her barn has been pretty successful with turf sprinters. Might be overlooked on turf but she is a proven commodity on dirt and could be the one to beat if this race did happen to get moved to the main track.

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 3:34 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
1 Good to Be Prince - 5/2 2 Leos Wish - 5/1 5 Best Dressed Man - 8/1

1-GOOD TO BE A PRINCE raced evenly in his debut. But that race was on turf and this race will be on dirt. The top barn sends him out with one of the top riders. He’s dropping in class, a 30% winning move for the barn, making his second start (23%), and going from turf to dirt (30%). Figures to be far tougher this time. 2-LEO’S WISH could be the best of the speed, at least among those who have raced. He carried his speed much farther in last, on the grass but would imagine he’ll still be fitter in the third start of his career. 5-BEST DRESSED MAN finished far back in his lone start but did show very good early speed before tiring. At least two members of that field came back to win their next starts. Stablemate of top choice could easily break on the lead. Don’t take him lightly.

 

Hawthorne Race 5

Post Time 4:02 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
5 She's Wandaful - 10/1 6 Madelyn Belle - 5/2 2 Chrome Attack - 9/2

Highly competitive race. Many of the runners in here have been finishing within mere inches of each other and there are a couple new shooters that makes the field even more interesting. There seems to be a pretty even mix of speed and closers and have to think that the closers maybe have the edge. It could be the turn of 5-SHE’S WANDAFUL. She came within two heads of winning last. The two that finished ahead of her are both back but think she was moving best of all late. But, again, there’s no guarantee that this race stays on the lawn and she really doesn’t like the main track. 6-MADELYN BELLE is probably the one if this race does come off the weeds. She’s been good on turf but her five dirt wins implies that it could be her preferred surface. 2-CHROME ATTACK was the recipient of a perfect trip in that same race and came out a head in front. She was narrowly beaten in her previous start after getting the same kind of trip. However, she lost ground late in both those races. 8-RUMBERT, 7-MOMENT TO SHINE, 3-HA HA GLORIA, and 4-ICY RIVER could be fighting it out on the lead.

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 4:30 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
1 Quiero Dinero - 5/1 6 Problematica - 12/1 5 Peggy's Way - 5/2 4 Crystal Snow - 7/2

1-QUIERO DINERO isn’t a strong choice but she has been in good form and the pace of this race, once again, will set up for her late move. 6-PROBLEMATICA and 5-PEGGY’S WAY could fight for the lead. Both have the potential to wire the field but both have been running out of gas in recent races. 4-CRYSTAL SNOW races here for the first time this year but she has had some local success previously and she’s another with the late move that could be favored with many tiring speed horses.

Hawthorne Race 7

Post Time 4:58 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
2 Man On Attack - 8/1 3 C'Est Magnifique - 6/1 9 Sharp Stick - 3/1 1 All Choked Up - 4/1

Few in here ever raced on dirt so guess I’ll just stick with the turf selections and hope for the best. 2-MAN ON ATTACK was in too tough in a race that was too long for him in last but think he’s going to be a major player in this spot. Drops in class. Cuts back to what should be an ideal distance. He might have to fight for the early lead but think he can put the rest of the speed away. 3-C’EST MAGNIFIQUE showed little in his first four starts for this barn but guess they must have found the “key” for last. He flew late to narrowly miss. However, he’s cutting back in distance for this and he was a runner that always raced longer in New York. He might run out of real estate at this distance though the pace of this race will work in his favor. 9-SHARP STICK moves up in class but he is razor sharp right now and just beat good claimers by daylight. 1-ALL CHOKED UP is as quick as any in here. If he does outbreak top choice, he might not get caught.

Hawthorne Race 8

Post Time 5:26 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
7 Princess Tenko - 9/2 4 Summer At the Spa - 4/1 2 Paddy Gal - 7/2

7-PRINCESS TENKO drops a couple levels and stretches out. She raced competitively in all her dirt route races and all of them were against better rivals. The leading rider stays aboard. 4-SUMMER AT THE SPA appears to be at the top of her game. She narrowly won last but showed considerable courage doing it. Can win right back. 2-PADDY GAL just missed in her local debut. She led from the start but just got outdueled by Summer At the Spa. But the trip over the track certainly helps.

Hawthorne Race 9

Post Time 5:54 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
8 Docs Seven - 7/5 3 Get the Candy - 9/2 7 Lipliner - 6/1

8-DOC’S SEVEN will be tough on either surface as she always is when they run her at the right level. She’s versatile and runs well against any kind of pace. She was a daylight winner on the lawn at this level in last. Seems likely to repeat. 3-GET THE CANDY looks like the best of the speed. She hasn’t had much dirt experience but she did finish third two races back on a race that was moved to the main track. The drop helps her chances on either surface. 7-LIPLINER might be sent after the lead but her best recent races, at least finishes, came when she was taken off the pace.